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Scheduletron

August 28, 2014

Strength of schedule / points

Combining defensive projections with the 2014 schedule

I posted yesterday the strength of schedule chart built around the relative power of each team – not how many games they won last year, but how many they might win this year. That chart showed the AFC South teams tending to have the easiest schedules in the league – Tennessee, Houston and Jacksonville.

Now let’s do the same thing, but using only defenses.

We’ve seen what these teams have done in past years, and we’ve seen them all play in three preseason games, so we have a general idea of where they’re headed – which ones will be a little better or a little worse.

Andy Richardson does most of our defensive projections. I debate the stuff with him. And we come up with these relative numbers for the defenses. Seattle, Carolina and the three big teams in the AFC North seem to have the best defenses. Dallas, Oakland, Washington and Minnesota are the four teams we think will allow the most points.

RANKING THE DEFENSES
RkTeamPoints
1.Seattle17.0
2.Carolina19.0
3.Cincinnati19.8
4.Pittsburgh20.0
5.Baltimore20.3
6.San Francisco20.4
7.Miami20.5
8.New England20.7
9.New Orleans21.0
10.Kansas City21.3
11.NY Jets21.5
12.Cleveland21.7
13.Denver22.0
14.San Diego22.1
15.Arizona22.2
16.St. Louis22.3
17.Houston22.3
18.Jacksonville22.4
19.Indianapolis22.6
20.Tampa Bay22.8
21.Green Bay23.0
22.Detroit23.1
23.Chicago23.2
24.NY Giants23.3
25.Tennessee23.4
26.Atlanta23.5
27.Philadelphia24.0
28.Buffalo24.3
29.Minnesota25.0
30.Washington25.5
31.Oakland26.0
32.Dallas26.5

Those are opinion-driven numbers, but we then plug them into the factual actual 2014 schedule. And that process leads us to conclude than the Giants, Texans, Washington and Philadelphia will play the easiest schedules. Seattle is the Super Bowl champ, but it’s up there too.

Hardest schedules appear to belong to the four teams in the AFC North, which are sure to grind out some 16-13 type scores in their games against each other. Oakland and Atlanta are the other two teams with notably tough schedules.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 1-17)
RkTeamPoints
1.NY Giants23.2
2.Houston23.0
3.Washington23.0
4.Philadelphia22.8
5.Seattle22.7
6.Chicago22.7
7.Dallas22.7
8.Miami22.6
9.Detroit22.6
10.New England22.5
11.Jacksonville22.5
12.NY Jets22.5
13.Indianapolis22.5
14.Minnesota22.5
15.Tennessee22.4
16.San Francisco22.4
17.St. Louis22.4
18.Green Bay22.3
19.Arizona22.3
20.Buffalo22.2
21.New Orleans22.1
22.Kansas City22.0
23.Carolina22.0
24.Tampa Bay21.9
25.San Diego21.9
26.Denver21.9
27.Cleveland21.7
28.Atlanta21.7
29.Cincinnati21.5
30.Oakland21.5
31.Pittsburgh21.5
32.Baltimore21.4

Many of your don’t care about Week 17. Your fantasy league is over at that point. If you’re in one of those leagues, it shakes out this way …

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 1-16)
RkTeamPoints
1.NY Giants23.1
2.Houston23.1
3.Philadelphia22.8
4.Washington22.8
5.St. Louis22.7
6.Seattle22.7
7.Miami22.7
8.NY Jets22.6
9.Detroit22.5
10.Jacksonville22.5
11.Chicago22.5
12.Dallas22.5
13.Indianapolis22.4
14.Minnesota22.4
15.New England22.4
16.Arizona22.4
17.Tennessee22.4
18.San Francisco22.4
19.Buffalo22.3
20.Green Bay22.3
21.New Orleans22.1
22.Kansas City22.0
23.Tampa Bay22.0
24.San Diego21.9
25.Atlanta21.9
26.Carolina21.9
27.Cleveland21.8
28.Denver21.6
29.Cincinnati21.6
30.Pittsburgh21.6
31.Oakland21.4
32.Baltimore21.4

—Ian Allan

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