Checking in again with some revised Strength of Schedule numbers. It’s too early in the year to use 2014 data (the Texans are 2-0, while the Saints are 0-2, so what’s the point in that?). The 2013 data is too outdated.
So I’m working off my own estimations.
If the 32 teams were each to play an average schedule, I would expect the win-loss records would look something like this …
| POWER RANKINGS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | T | Pct |
| Seattle | 13 | 3 | 0 | .813 |
| Denver | 12 | 3 | 1 | .781 |
| New England | 11 | 5 | 0 | .688 |
| Cincinnati | 10 | 5 | 1 | .656 |
| Carolina | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 |
| Green Bay | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 |
| Indianapolis | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 |
| New Orleans | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 |
| Arizona | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
| Philadelphia | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
| San Diego | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
| Atlanta | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
| Baltimore | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
| San Francisco | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
| Detroit | 8 | 7 | 1 | .531 |
| Chicago | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
| Buffalo | 7 | 8 | 1 | .469 |
| Kansas City | 7 | 8 | 1 | .469 |
| Miami | 7 | 8 | 1 | .469 |
| Minnesota | 7 | 8 | 1 | .469 |
| NY Jets | 7 | 8 | 1 | .469 |
| Pittsburgh | 7 | 8 | 1 | .469 |
| Tennessee | 7 | 8 | 1 | .469 |
| Dallas | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 |
| Houston | 6 | 10 | 0 | .375 |
| Washington | 5 | 10 | 1 | .344 |
| Cleveland | 5 | 11 | 0 | .313 |
| St. Louis | 5 | 11 | 0 | .313 |
| Jacksonville | 4 | 11 | 1 | .281 |
| NY Giants | 4 | 11 | 1 | .281 |
| Tampa Bay | 4 | 11 | 1 | .281 |
| Oakland | 2 | 13 | 1 | .156 |
Taking those numbers and plugging them into the 2014 schedule, the Strength of Schedule numbers look something like this (for the remaining games – Weeks 3-17).
The Colts, Titans, Eagles and Texans appear to have the easiest schedules the rest of the way.
The Raiders, Panthers, Rams and Jets project to play the hardest schedules.
| ESTIMATED STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 3-17) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | T | Pct |
| Indianapolis | 96 | 128 | 0 | .429 |
| Tennessee | 100 | 124 | 0 | .446 |
| Philadelphia | 104 | 120 | 0 | .464 |
| Houston | 104 | 119 | 1 | .467 |
| Dallas | 105 | 119 | 0 | .469 |
| Seattle | 106 | 118 | 0 | .473 |
| San Diego | 106 | 118 | 0 | .473 |
| Baltimore | 106 | 117 | 1 | .475 |
| Jacksonville | 107 | 116 | 1 | .480 |
| NY Giants | 108 | 116 | 0 | .482 |
| Cleveland | 108 | 116 | 0 | .482 |
| Washington | 108 | 116 | 0 | .482 |
| Atlanta | 108 | 115 | 1 | .484 |
| Cincinnati | 110 | 114 | 0 | .491 |
| Pittsburgh | 111 | 112 | 1 | .498 |
| Denver | 112 | 112 | 0 | .500 |
| Miami | 113 | 111 | 0 | .504 |
| Buffalo | 113 | 110 | 1 | .507 |
| Kansas City | 114 | 110 | 0 | .509 |
| Minnesota | 114 | 109 | 1 | .511 |
| New Orleans | 115 | 109 | 0 | .513 |
| Arizona | 116 | 108 | 0 | .518 |
| San Francisco | 116 | 107 | 1 | .520 |
| New England | 116 | 107 | 1 | .520 |
| Green Bay | 117 | 107 | 0 | .522 |
| Detroit | 117 | 106 | 1 | .525 |
| Chicago | 118 | 105 | 1 | .529 |
| Tampa Bay | 119 | 104 | 1 | .533 |
| NY Jets | 120 | 103 | 1 | .538 |
| St. Louis | 121 | 102 | 1 | .542 |
| Carolina | 122 | 101 | 1 | .547 |
| Oakland | 126 | 97 | 1 | .565 |
—Ian Allan

