Fantasy Index

Scheduletron

September 24, 2014

Strength of schedule / points

Updated numbers based on revised defensive projections

I haven’t checked in for a while with any Strength of Schedule data. Let me offer the updated numbers, using the projected strength of each defense.

For starters, we must agree on which teams have the best defenses. We know what’s happened in the first three weeks, and then we can guess what will happen in the remaining 13 games for each club.

In my opinion, the Seahawks, Bengals, Cardinals, Panthers and Patriots have the best defenses. The Jaguars, Eagles, Cowboys, Bucs and Giants – those are the defenses you want to try to exploit.

POINTS ALLOWED BY DEFENSES
TeamSo FarProj.
Seattle22.016.5
Cincinnati11.017.0
Arizona15.018.0
Carolina19.318.5
New England16.319.0
Denver22.319.5
San Diego16.320.3
Baltimore16.720.6
Detroit15.021.0
San Francisco22.721.0
Buffalo17.321.3
Kansas City21.721.6
NY Jets24.022.0
Minnesota18.722.4
New Orleans24.022.6
Pittsburgh24.022.7
Green Bay26.322.8
Miami27.722.9
Tennessee23.023.0
Washington21.323.1
Cleveland25.723.2
Indianapolis26.023.3
Chicago20.723.6
Oakland21.723.7
St. Louis28.324.1
Houston16.724.2
Atlanta24.024.3
NY Giants25.724.4
Tampa Bay31.725.5
Dallas23.025.7
Philadelphia26.026.2
Jacksonville39.727.0

Using the projected points allowed numbers (those are the more meaningful ones) we can then plug those into the real-life NFL schedule. That tells us which teams are going to face the weakest defenses. For the next five games for each club, it looks like the Steelers, Giants and Browns are going to see the most weak defenses. The Broncos, Panthers and Raiders have the hardest upcoming schedules.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, POINTS (next five games)
RkTeamPts
1.Pittsburgh24.6
2.NY Giants24.5
3.Cleveland24.4
4.Tennessee24.2
5.Arizona23.6
6.Miami23.5
7.Houston23.2
8.San Francisco23.1
9.Seattle23.0
10.Minnesota23.0
11.San Diego22.8
12.New Orleans22.7
13.Detroit22.5
14.Jacksonville22.4
15.Atlanta22.4
16.Philadelphia22.3
17.Tampa Bay22.3
18.Dallas22.2
19.Green Bay22.0
20.Baltimore21.7
21.Buffalo21.7
22.Cincinnati21.7
23.Washington21.5
24.Indianapolis21.5
25.Chicago21.5
26.Kansas City21.3
27.St. Louis21.3
28.New England21.1
29.NY Jets20.2
30.Oakland20.2
31.Carolina20.1
32.Denver20.1

If you prefer to look at the entire season, the Titans, Giants, Cowboys and Texans project to see the overall weakest defenses. The Rams, Raiders and Kansas City – those teams should see the toughest defenses, on average.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, POINTS (Weeks 4-17)
RkTeamPts
1.Tennessee23.9
2.NY Giants23.8
3.Houston23.3
4.Dallas23.3
5.Washington23.1
6.Indianapolis22.9
7.Baltimore22.7
8.Jacksonville22.7
9.Green Bay22.6
10.Minnesota22.5
11.Cincinnati22.5
12.Carolina22.4
13.Philadelphia22.4
14.Pittsburgh22.4
15.Chicago22.4
16.Detroit22.3
17.Seattle22.3
18.Cleveland22.2
19.Arizona22.1
20.New Orleans22.1
21.San Diego22.0
22.Miami21.9
23.Tampa Bay21.9
24.Atlanta21.8
25.Buffalo21.8
26.San Francisco21.6
27.New England21.4
28.NY Jets21.3
29.Denver21.1
30.Kansas City20.9
31.Oakland20.8
32.St. Louis20.8

Many fantasy leagues don’t care about Week 17. They’re done at that time. For those guys, we offer the same chart as above, only with the Week 17 games removed. Results are similar.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, POINTS (Weeks 4-16)
RkTeamPts
1.Tennessee24.0
2.NY Giants23.6
3.Dallas23.3
4.Houston23.0
5.Washington22.9
6.Pittsburgh22.9
7.Indianapolis22.8
8.Green Bay22.7
9.Baltimore22.6
10.Jacksonville22.5
11.Cincinnati22.4
12.Minnesota22.4
13.Chicago22.4
14.Detroit22.3
15.Cleveland22.3
16.Carolina22.3
17.Philadelphia22.3
18.Arizona22.2
19.Seattle22.1
20.Atlanta22.1
21.San Diego22.1
22.Buffalo22.0
23.Miami21.9
24.San Francisco21.9
25.Tampa Bay21.8
26.New Orleans21.8
27.New England21.4
28.NY Jets21.2
29.St. Louis21.1
30.Kansas City21.0
31.Denver20.9
32.Oakland20.9

—Ian Allan

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