Here’s an updated look at strength of schedule. According to my numbers, it looks like Tennessee, Baltimore and Houston will play the easiest schedules the rest of the way.
These aren’t based on “hard” numbers. Teams have played only five games, and some of the 3-2 teams aren’t necessarily any good, while some 2-3 teams are perhaps just starting slow.
So rather than real-life numbers, these are built on how strong I THINK the teams are.
This is kind of fantasy football’s wind-chill factor – not the actual temperature, but what it feels like.
For starters, I assigned a win-loss record to each team. This is my gut feel, based on how the teams have looked thus far. This is how I think they’d finish if they started the season today, and each team played a 16-game schedule. To get these numbers, I put the teams in order, 1-32, then started adding wins and losses until I got to the appropriate numbers for 256 regular-season games.
POWER RANKING PROJECTIONS | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rk | Team | W | L | T | Pct |
1. | Seattle | 14 | 2 | 0 | .875 |
2. | Denver | 13 | 2 | 1 | .844 |
3. | Green Bay | 11 | 5 | 0 | .688 |
4. | Indianapolis | 11 | 5 | 0 | .688 |
5. | San Diego | 10 | 5 | 1 | .656 |
6. | San Francisco | 10 | 5 | 1 | .656 |
7. | Baltimore | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 |
8. | New England | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 |
9. | Arizona | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
10. | Cincinnati | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
11. | Dallas | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
12. | NY Giants | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
13. | Atlanta | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
14. | Detroit | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
15. | Buffalo | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
16. | Kansas City | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
17. | Philadelphia | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
18. | Pittsburgh | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
19. | Chicago | 7 | 8 | 1 | .469 |
20. | Houston | 7 | 8 | 1 | .469 |
21. | Miami | 7 | 8 | 1 | .469 |
22. | New Orleans | 7 | 8 | 1 | .469 |
23. | Carolina | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 |
24. | Cleveland | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 |
25. | Minnesota | 6 | 9 | 1 | .406 |
26. | Tennessee | 5 | 11 | 0 | .313 |
27. | NY Jets | 4 | 11 | 1 | .281 |
28. | St. Louis | 4 | 11 | 1 | .281 |
29. | Tampa Bay | 4 | 11 | 1 | .281 |
30. | Washington | 4 | 11 | 1 | .281 |
31. | Jacksonville | 2 | 14 | 0 | .125 |
32. | Oakland | 2 | 14 | 0 | .125 |
Once we agree on those numbers, we can then plug them into the 2014 schedule.
Using those numbers, the Steelers, Eagles, Patriots and Texans have played the easiest schedules so far. The Cardinals, Broncos and Seahawks have played the hardest schedules.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, SO FAR (Weeks 1-5) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rk | Team | W | L | T | Pct |
1. | Pittsburgh | 30 | 49 | 1 | .381 |
2. | Philadelphia | 31 | 46 | 3 | .406 |
3. | Houston | 32 | 45 | 3 | .419 |
4. | New England | 32 | 45 | 3 | .419 |
5. | Dallas | 33 | 43 | 4 | .438 |
6. | Miami | 28 | 36 | 0 | .438 |
7. | St. Louis | 27 | 34 | 3 | .445 |
8. | Tampa Bay | 35 | 43 | 2 | .450 |
9. | New Orleans | 35 | 42 | 3 | .456 |
10. | Oakland | 28 | 33 | 3 | .461 |
11. | Atlanta | 35 | 40 | 5 | .469 |
12. | San Diego | 37 | 41 | 2 | .475 |
13. | Cleveland | 30 | 33 | 1 | .477 |
14. | Indianapolis | 38 | 41 | 1 | .481 |
15. | Carolina | 38 | 40 | 2 | .488 |
16. | NY Giants | 38 | 39 | 3 | .494 |
17. | Detroit | 39 | 39 | 2 | .500 |
18. | NY Jets | 39 | 39 | 2 | .500 |
19. | Washington | 40 | 38 | 2 | .513 |
20. | Chicago | 40 | 38 | 2 | .513 |
21. | Green Bay | 40 | 37 | 3 | .519 |
22. | Minnesota | 41 | 37 | 2 | .525 |
23. | Buffalo | 40 | 36 | 4 | .525 |
24. | Jacksonville | 41 | 37 | 2 | .525 |
25. | Baltimore | 42 | 37 | 1 | .531 |
26. | San Francisco | 41 | 36 | 3 | .531 |
27. | Cincinnati | 34 | 30 | 0 | .531 |
28. | Tennessee | 44 | 34 | 2 | .563 |
29. | Kansas City | 45 | 32 | 3 | .581 |
30. | Seattle | 38 | 23 | 3 | .617 |
31. | Denver | 42 | 21 | 1 | .664 |
32. | Arizona | 42 | 18 | 4 | .688 |
And for remaining schedules, if my power ranking numbers are accurate (granted, a huge if) then Tennessee, Baltimore and Houston will play the easiest schedules the rest of the way. Not saying those teams are going to dominate or anything, just saying they’ll see more softer opponents, on average, then the other teams.
And it looks like Oakland, St. Louis and Philadelphia will play the hardest schedules. The Eagles look the most notable, since it’s my opinion that they’ve so far benefitted from playing against lesser opposition. Three of Philadelphia’s wins have come against Jacksonville, Washington and St. Louis, and those clearly have to come at some kind of discount.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, REMAINING (Weeks 6-17) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rk | Team | W | L | T | Pct |
1. | Tennessee | 72 | 99 | 5 | .423 |
2. | Baltimore | 75 | 95 | 6 | .443 |
3. | Houston | 78 | 97 | 1 | .446 |
4. | Indianapolis | 77 | 93 | 6 | .455 |
5. | Minnesota | 77 | 93 | 6 | .455 |
6. | Denver | 84 | 101 | 7 | .456 |
7. | Cleveland | 86 | 102 | 4 | .458 |
8. | Buffalo | 82 | 89 | 5 | .480 |
9. | Green Bay | 82 | 89 | 5 | .480 |
10. | Seattle | 89 | 95 | 8 | .484 |
11. | Cincinnati | 91 | 97 | 4 | .484 |
12. | NY Giants | 84 | 87 | 5 | .491 |
13. | Detroit | 83 | 85 | 8 | .494 |
14. | Kansas City | 84 | 86 | 6 | .494 |
15. | Washington | 84 | 84 | 8 | .500 |
16. | Dallas | 85 | 85 | 6 | .500 |
17. | Atlanta | 86 | 86 | 4 | .500 |
18. | Pittsburgh | 86 | 85 | 5 | .503 |
19. | Tampa Bay | 86 | 85 | 5 | .503 |
20. | Miami | 94 | 92 | 6 | .505 |
21. | Jacksonville | 86 | 84 | 6 | .506 |
22. | Arizona | 95 | 92 | 5 | .508 |
23. | San Diego | 87 | 84 | 5 | .509 |
24. | Chicago | 87 | 83 | 6 | .511 |
25. | NY Jets | 90 | 82 | 4 | .523 |
26. | New Orleans | 91 | 81 | 4 | .528 |
27. | Carolina | 91 | 80 | 5 | .531 |
28. | San Francisco | 90 | 78 | 8 | .534 |
29. | New England | 92 | 78 | 6 | .540 |
30. | Philadelphia | 93 | 76 | 7 | .548 |
31. | St. Louis | 112 | 72 | 8 | .604 |
32. | Oakland | 114 | 71 | 7 | .612 |
—Ian Allan