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Updated strength of schedule

Looks like scheduling could work against Philadelphia

Here’s an updated look at strength of schedule. According to my numbers, it looks like Tennessee, Baltimore and Houston will play the easiest schedules the rest of the way.

These aren’t based on “hard” numbers. Teams have played only five games, and some of the 3-2 teams aren’t necessarily any good, while some 2-3 teams are perhaps just starting slow.

So rather than real-life numbers, these are built on how strong I THINK the teams are.

This is kind of fantasy football’s wind-chill factor – not the actual temperature, but what it feels like.

For starters, I assigned a win-loss record to each team. This is my gut feel, based on how the teams have looked thus far. This is how I think they’d finish if they started the season today, and each team played a 16-game schedule. To get these numbers, I put the teams in order, 1-32, then started adding wins and losses until I got to the appropriate numbers for 256 regular-season games.

POWER RANKING PROJECTIONS
RkTeamWLTPct
1.Seattle1420.875
2.Denver1321.844
3.Green Bay1150.688
4.Indianapolis1150.688
5.San Diego1051.656
6.San Francisco1051.656
7.Baltimore1060.625
8.New England1060.625
9.Arizona961.594
10.Cincinnati961.594
11.Dallas961.594
12.NY Giants961.594
13.Atlanta970.563
14.Detroit970.563
15.Buffalo880.500
16.Kansas City880.500
17.Philadelphia880.500
18.Pittsburgh880.500
19.Chicago781.469
20.Houston781.469
21.Miami781.469
22.New Orleans781.469
23.Carolina790.438
24.Cleveland790.438
25.Minnesota691.406
26.Tennessee5110.313
27.NY Jets4111.281
28.St. Louis4111.281
29.Tampa Bay4111.281
30.Washington4111.281
31.Jacksonville2140.125
32.Oakland2140.125

Once we agree on those numbers, we can then plug them into the 2014 schedule.

Using those numbers, the Steelers, Eagles, Patriots and Texans have played the easiest schedules so far. The Cardinals, Broncos and Seahawks have played the hardest schedules.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, SO FAR (Weeks 1-5)
RkTeamWLTPct
1.Pittsburgh30491.381
2.Philadelphia31463.406
3.Houston32453.419
4.New England32453.419
5.Dallas33434.438
6.Miami28360.438
7.St. Louis27343.445
8.Tampa Bay35432.450
9.New Orleans35423.456
10.Oakland28333.461
11.Atlanta35405.469
12.San Diego37412.475
13.Cleveland30331.477
14.Indianapolis38411.481
15.Carolina38402.488
16.NY Giants38393.494
17.Detroit39392.500
18.NY Jets39392.500
19.Washington40382.513
20.Chicago40382.513
21.Green Bay40373.519
22.Minnesota41372.525
23.Buffalo40364.525
24.Jacksonville41372.525
25.Baltimore42371.531
26.San Francisco41363.531
27.Cincinnati34300.531
28.Tennessee44342.563
29.Kansas City45323.581
30.Seattle38233.617
31.Denver42211.664
32.Arizona42184.688

And for remaining schedules, if my power ranking numbers are accurate (granted, a huge if) then Tennessee, Baltimore and Houston will play the easiest schedules the rest of the way. Not saying those teams are going to dominate or anything, just saying they’ll see more softer opponents, on average, then the other teams.

And it looks like Oakland, St. Louis and Philadelphia will play the hardest schedules. The Eagles look the most notable, since it’s my opinion that they’ve so far benefitted from playing against lesser opposition. Three of Philadelphia’s wins have come against Jacksonville, Washington and St. Louis, and those clearly have to come at some kind of discount.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, REMAINING (Weeks 6-17)
RkTeamWLTPct
1.Tennessee72995.423
2.Baltimore75956.443
3.Houston78971.446
4.Indianapolis77936.455
5.Minnesota77936.455
6.Denver841017.456
7.Cleveland861024.458
8.Buffalo82895.480
9.Green Bay82895.480
10.Seattle89958.484
11.Cincinnati91974.484
12.NY Giants84875.491
13.Detroit83858.494
14.Kansas City84866.494
15.Washington84848.500
16.Dallas85856.500
17.Atlanta86864.500
18.Pittsburgh86855.503
19.Tampa Bay86855.503
20.Miami94926.505
21.Jacksonville86846.506
22.Arizona95925.508
23.San Diego87845.509
24.Chicago87836.511
25.NY Jets90824.523
26.New Orleans91814.528
27.Carolina91805.531
28.San Francisco90788.534
29.New England92786.540
30.Philadelphia93767.548
31.St. Louis112728.604
32.Oakland114717.612

—Ian Allan

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