Checking in with a glance at strength of schedule. Seven weeks are in the book, so the existing data is meaningful enough (I think) that I’ll use actual win-loss records and actually defensive points, rather than my own speculations.
And based on how teams have played thus far, the Patriots appear to have the hardest schedule the rest of the way. That’s if you want to use wins-losses or if you go by points.
Carolina, meanwhile, looks it will play the easiest schedule going forward. It’s still got three games left against Atlanta and Tampa Bay.
I’ll post the wins-losses first. Carolina, Minnesota and San Francisco seem to have the easiest schedules. The 49ers are notable, because they’ll show up later as having played the league’s hardest schedule.
New England, Oakland, Washington and Philadelphia should play the hardest schedules.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS (Weeks 8-17) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct. |
Carolina | 22 | 35 | 0 | .386 |
Minnesota | 26 | 34 | 1 | .434 |
San Francisco | 25 | 32 | 0 | .439 |
Buffalo | 26 | 32 | 0 | .448 |
Baltimore | 26 | 32 | 1 | .449 |
Kansas City | 29 | 35 | 0 | .453 |
Pittsburgh | 26 | 31 | 2 | .458 |
Houston | 27 | 32 | 1 | .458 |
Cleveland | 29 | 34 | 3 | .462 |
Tampa Bay | 30 | 35 | 2 | .463 |
Indianapolis | 29 | 33 | 0 | .468 |
Denver | 30 | 33 | 1 | .477 |
Cincinnati | 31 | 34 | 0 | .477 |
Detroit | 29 | 31 | 0 | .483 |
Green Bay | 29 | 31 | 0 | .483 |
Tennessee | 30 | 32 | 0 | .484 |
Miami | 34 | 35 | 0 | .493 |
NY Giants | 30 | 30 | 0 | .500 |
NY Jets | 30 | 30 | 0 | .500 |
New Orleans | 33 | 32 | 3 | .507 |
Dallas | 31 | 29 | 0 | .517 |
Seattle | 34 | 29 | 1 | .539 |
Chicago | 33 | 28 | 0 | .541 |
Atlanta | 31 | 26 | 2 | .542 |
Arizona | 35 | 29 | 0 | .547 |
St. Louis | 35 | 29 | 0 | .547 |
Jacksonville | 33 | 27 | 1 | .549 |
San Diego | 32 | 25 | 0 | .561 |
Philadelphia | 38 | 29 | 1 | .566 |
Washington | 34 | 26 | 0 | .567 |
Oakland | 37 | 26 | 0 | .587 |
New England | 36 | 25 | 0 | .590 |
Here’s the same chart, only using points rather than wins. Again, Carolina seems to have the easiest schedule. They’re followed by New Orleans, Minnesota and Detroit. The Patriots, Dolphins and Jaguars (on average) should face the stingiest defenses.
This is again, based not on our expectations of defense, but on how they’ve played so far. So Seattle’s defense (which we think will improve) goes into the books at 23.5 points per game allowed, a below-average defense right now.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, POINTS (Weeks 8-17) | |
---|---|
Team | Pts |
Carolina | 26.4 |
New Orleans | 24.8 |
Minnesota | 24.7 |
Detroit | 24.4 |
Atlanta | 24.4 |
Washington | 24.1 |
San Francisco | 24.1 |
NY Giants | 24.1 |
Green Bay | 24.1 |
Tampa Bay | 24.0 |
Cleveland | 23.9 |
Cincinnati | 23.8 |
Seattle | 23.7 |
Indianapolis | 23.7 |
Arizona | 23.6 |
Dallas | 23.6 |
Baltimore | 23.3 |
Buffalo | 23.2 |
Kansas City | 23.2 |
Pittsburgh | 23.1 |
Philadelphia | 23.0 |
Houston | 22.9 |
Chicago | 22.4 |
Denver | 22.3 |
Tennessee | 22.2 |
San Diego | 22.2 |
NY Jets | 22.1 |
St. Louis | 22.0 |
Oakland | 21.7 |
Jacksonville | 21.4 |
Miami | 21.2 |
New England | 20.7 |
Finally, here’s how teams have done so far. That is, here’s how hard their schedules have been. San Francisco and Seattle have played the hardest schedules. The 49ers have played four games against one-loss teams (Dallas, Philadelphia, Denver, Arizona).
Atlanta, New England and San Diego have played the easiest schedules. They look like the teams that possibly have benefitted from playing against overmatched opponents.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Wins (Weeks 1-7) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
San Francisco | 26 | 11 | 0 | .703 |
Seattle | 22 | 12 | 0 | .647 |
Kansas City | 21 | 13 | 0 | .618 |
Denver | 20 | 13 | 0 | .606 |
NY Giants | 24 | 16 | 0 | .600 |
Indianapolis | 22 | 16 | 1 | .577 |
Carolina | 23 | 17 | 0 | .575 |
Buffalo | 23 | 18 | 0 | .561 |
Cincinnati | 20 | 16 | 0 | .556 |
NY Jets | 22 | 18 | 0 | .550 |
Arizona | 18 | 16 | 0 | .529 |
St. Louis | 17 | 16 | 0 | .515 |
Baltimore | 19 | 18 | 2 | .513 |
Jacksonville | 20 | 20 | 0 | .500 |
Miami | 17 | 17 | 0 | .500 |
Minnesota | 20 | 20 | 0 | .500 |
Houston | 20 | 21 | 0 | .488 |
Tennessee | 18 | 20 | 1 | .474 |
Oakland | 16 | 18 | 0 | .471 |
Green Bay | 18 | 21 | 1 | .463 |
Dallas | 18 | 21 | 0 | .462 |
Philadelphia | 16 | 19 | 0 | .457 |
Chicago | 18 | 22 | 1 | .451 |
Detroit | 18 | 22 | 1 | .451 |
New Orleans | 15 | 19 | 0 | .441 |
Washington | 17 | 22 | 0 | .436 |
Cleveland | 15 | 20 | 0 | .429 |
Pittsburgh | 16 | 22 | 1 | .423 |
Tampa Bay | 13 | 20 | 1 | .397 |
San Diego | 15 | 23 | 0 | .395 |
New England | 14 | 23 | 1 | .382 |
Atlanta | 14 | 24 | 1 | .372 |
—Ian Allan