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Strength of schedule

49ers have played hardest schedule -- but it will get better

Checking in with a glance at strength of schedule. Seven weeks are in the book, so the existing data is meaningful enough (I think) that I’ll use actual win-loss records and actually defensive points, rather than my own speculations.

And based on how teams have played thus far, the Patriots appear to have the hardest schedule the rest of the way. That’s if you want to use wins-losses or if you go by points.

Carolina, meanwhile, looks it will play the easiest schedule going forward. It’s still got three games left against Atlanta and Tampa Bay.

I’ll post the wins-losses first. Carolina, Minnesota and San Francisco seem to have the easiest schedules. The 49ers are notable, because they’ll show up later as having played the league’s hardest schedule.

New England, Oakland, Washington and Philadelphia should play the hardest schedules.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS (Weeks 8-17)
TeamWLTPct.
Carolina22350.386
Minnesota26341.434
San Francisco25320.439
Buffalo26320.448
Baltimore26321.449
Kansas City29350.453
Pittsburgh26312.458
Houston27321.458
Cleveland29343.462
Tampa Bay30352.463
Indianapolis29330.468
Denver30331.477
Cincinnati31340.477
Detroit29310.483
Green Bay29310.483
Tennessee30320.484
Miami34350.493
NY Giants30300.500
NY Jets30300.500
New Orleans33323.507
Dallas31290.517
Seattle34291.539
Chicago33280.541
Atlanta31262.542
Arizona35290.547
St. Louis35290.547
Jacksonville33271.549
San Diego32250.561
Philadelphia38291.566
Washington34260.567
Oakland37260.587
New England36250.590

Here’s the same chart, only using points rather than wins. Again, Carolina seems to have the easiest schedule. They’re followed by New Orleans, Minnesota and Detroit. The Patriots, Dolphins and Jaguars (on average) should face the stingiest defenses.

This is again, based not on our expectations of defense, but on how they’ve played so far. So Seattle’s defense (which we think will improve) goes into the books at 23.5 points per game allowed, a below-average defense right now.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, POINTS (Weeks 8-17)
TeamPts
Carolina26.4
New Orleans24.8
Minnesota24.7
Detroit24.4
Atlanta24.4
Washington24.1
San Francisco24.1
NY Giants24.1
Green Bay24.1
Tampa Bay24.0
Cleveland23.9
Cincinnati23.8
Seattle23.7
Indianapolis23.7
Arizona23.6
Dallas23.6
Baltimore23.3
Buffalo23.2
Kansas City23.2
Pittsburgh23.1
Philadelphia23.0
Houston22.9
Chicago22.4
Denver22.3
Tennessee22.2
San Diego22.2
NY Jets22.1
St. Louis22.0
Oakland21.7
Jacksonville21.4
Miami21.2
New England20.7

Finally, here’s how teams have done so far. That is, here’s how hard their schedules have been. San Francisco and Seattle have played the hardest schedules. The 49ers have played four games against one-loss teams (Dallas, Philadelphia, Denver, Arizona).

Atlanta, New England and San Diego have played the easiest schedules. They look like the teams that possibly have benefitted from playing against overmatched opponents.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Wins (Weeks 1-7)
TeamWLTPct
San Francisco26110.703
Seattle22120.647
Kansas City21130.618
Denver20130.606
NY Giants24160.600
Indianapolis22161.577
Carolina23170.575
Buffalo23180.561
Cincinnati20160.556
NY Jets22180.550
Arizona18160.529
St. Louis17160.515
Baltimore19182.513
Jacksonville20200.500
Miami17170.500
Minnesota20200.500
Houston20210.488
Tennessee18201.474
Oakland16180.471
Green Bay18211.463
Dallas18210.462
Philadelphia16190.457
Chicago18221.451
Detroit18221.451
New Orleans15190.441
Washington17220.436
Cleveland15200.429
Pittsburgh16221.423
Tampa Bay13201.397
San Diego15230.395
New England14231.382
Atlanta14241.372

—Ian Allan

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