ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly from training camp through Super Bowl with answers to a new question being posted Thursday morning. How the guest experts responded when we asked them: What is your strategy when it comes to injured stars?
DAVID DOREY
Unless the player is known for producing despite an injury tag, then no. I would not take a chance on them if I could avoid it and usually I have someone else. There is nothing worse than getting the zero that Graham owners would have taken if they started him this week. I use my “Something Rule” – it is better to get something moderate from Player A than to risk getting nothing from Player B just because he may or may not actually contribute. And don’t feel bad if Player B scores a touchdown because more often than not you’ll be disappointed.
Dorey is the co-founder and lead NFL analyst for The Huddle and author of Fantasy Football: The Next Level. He has projected and predicted every NFL game and player performance since 1997 and has appeared in numerous magazines, newspapers, radio and television.
SAM HENDRICKS
I use a simple strategy that works most of the time. If a player is doubtful or out, I do not start him period. If he is probable I start him if I think his projected stats are my best option but I monitor his situation closely and have a backup plan in case the "probable" player cannot go. For example, if he is a late game (4:30 pm) player I make sure I add a free agent that is playing in that time slot or later who can replace him if needed. If I have a flex spot it makes sense to put the player with questions in that spot so that either a RB/WR or TE can replace them in a late game. Players that are questionable usually play. A big factor in my mind is if they practice on the Friday -- that usually is a green light. Not practicing on Friday before the Sunday game is reason to bench him. I do not expect him to play in that case. There are always exceptions to the rule though. Some studs who have consistently shown an ability to play without practice do get the start but only if they have proven starts despite not practicing. This year has been a little chaotic but I have not changed my plans. One more thing-ignore most of the player comments about his health. They are not doctors. They tend to say whatever they believe, not necessarily what is true.
Hendricks is the author of Fantasy Football Guidebook, Fantasy Football Tips and Fantasy Football Basics, all available at ExtraPointPress.com, at all major bookstores, and at Amazon and BN.com. He is a 20-plus year fantasy football veteran who regularly participates in the National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) and finished 7th and 16th overall (out of 228 competitors) in the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC). Follow him at his web site, www.ffguidebook.com.
MICAH JAMES
There might not be any phrase more reviled by fantasy owners than "game-time decision". (OK, "running back by committee is right up there, I'll agree.) We'd like to know that a player will be out in plenty of time to make lineup adjustments but, unfortunately, that isn't always the case. When you've got an elite player dealing with an injury it makes the decision even more difficult, but for me I'll almost always err on the side of caution and sit a banged up star. Brandon Marshall scored a ton of points on my bench, and that hurt, but there are far more games where a player is simply ineffective or even worse, plays a series or two and ends up sitting the rest of the game. It isn't an exact science, but unless I'm really looking for upside production in a given week, I'm avoiding the guys with the red cross next to them.
James, the Fantasy Football MagicMan, currently hosts the weekly FFToolbox Fantasy Football Radio Show. In 2012, the FFMagicMan won the Fantasy Sports Trade Association’s Preseason Accuracy Rankings Challenge, and followed that performance with a Runner-Up finish in 2013. James posts his in-season rankings on the FantasyPros Experts’ rankings every week, and you can find his latest musings at ffmagicman.com. Follow him on Twitter at @FFMagicMan.
IAN ALLAN
I’m not the guy to ask. I made the mistake of starting Jimmy Graham over Clay Harbor last week in a PPR league. Cost me 9.4 points. In general, if a superstar guy is in uniform and on the field, I tend to give him the benefit of the doubt and use him. Graham, A.J. Green, Brandon Marshall and Calvin Johnson. Those guys tend to have so much scoring potential that I’ll roll with them at less than 100 percent rather than taking a flyer on a lesser option. But it can be a poor strategy. The worst kind of injuries are the chronic type like what we saw last year with Roddy White, where he kept trying to play hurt rather than taking a few weeks off and getting back to full health.
Allan is the senior writer for Fantasy Football Index. He's been in that role since 1987, generating most of the player rankings and analysis for that publication. His work can be seen in Fantasy Football Index magazine, and also at www.fantasyindex.com.
MICHAEL NAZAREK
If a true stud plays injured, then I start him if I don't own another top 10 player at his position. That rule hasn't changed this season at all.
Nazarek is the CEO of Fantasy Football Mastermind Inc. His company offers a preseason draft guide, customizable cheat sheets, a multi-use fantasy drafting program including auction values, weekly in-season fantasy newsletters, injury reports and free NFL news (updated daily) at its web site. He has been playing fantasy football since 1988 and is a four-peat champion of the SI.com Experts Fantasy League, a nationally published writer in several fantasy magazines and a former columnist for SI.com. For more info go to www.ffmastermind.com. Nazarek can be reached via email at miken@ffmastermind.com.
JAMES SELTZER
I am generally risk-averse when it comes to injured big-name players in fantasy. If a star player is legitimately injured, and is attempting to play through it, their production usually tends to take a hit. Of course, there are always examples of the opposite being true, as we saw with Brandon Marshall's three touchdown performance a few weeks ago. Furthermore, it is hard to sit a guy like Calvin Johnson or Jimmy Graham, assuming they are active, because their potential every time they step on the field is too high to pass on. Again, it comes back to risk management. Do your research and make an informed decision. Did said star practice during the week? Are there any reports out there about the player's injury, and his subsequent viability of playing at high level with said injury? How good are the players replacing the stars in your lineup? These are all questions that you should ask/answer when making a start/sit decision on an injured big-named player. Ultimately, if there is any doubt in your mind about the player's ability to compete, and you have a viable replacement, then it is better to play it safe, because there is nothing worse than a goose-egg on your scoreboard.
Seltzer is a Writer of NFL content for Rotowire.com. Since 1997, RotoWire.com has been one of the leading fantasy sports resources on the web. Seltzer can be found on Twitter @JamesSeltzer975.
ANDY RICHARDSON
I bench them without looking back. Teams play games with opponents, and I think they generally want an opponent to have to spend time accounting for their stars even if they know that player will be limping around if he's out there at all. Jimmy Graham, Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green -- they won't be in my lineup until they prove to me they're healthy. That's one of the main reasons for having a bench, to keep players you might actually need to start on a bye week or in case of injury.
Richardson has been a contributor and editor to the Fantasy Football Index magazine and www.fantasyindex.com since 2002. His responsibilities include team defense and IDP projections and various site features, and he has run the magazine's annual experts draft and auction leagues since their inception. He previews all the NFL games on Saturdays and writes a wrap-up column on Mondays during the NFL season.