Fantasy Index

Scheduletron

December 15, 2014

Strength of schedule

Bucs are front-runner for No. 1 overall pick

With two weeks left in the regular season, the No. 1 pick of the draft is very much up in the air. The Jets took themselves out of serious consideration on Sunday by winning at Tennessee.

That leaves four teams with 2-12 records. The two teams from the AFC South (Jacksonville and Tampa Bay) and the two pirate franchises (Oakland and Tampa Bay).

Jacksonville and Tennessee play on Thursday, so at most one of those teams will go 2-14.

Oakland hosts Buffalo and Denver in its final two, while the Bucs host Green Bay and New Orleans. Both of those teams potentially could go 2-14.

If there’s a tie, recall, the tiebreaking for the draft order is different from tiebreaking for playoffs. All of that head-to-head and conference record stuff gets tossed out. For the draft, the first tiebreak (after won-loss records) is strength of schedule. So (for example) it’s possible for two teams in the same division to both finish 5-11, with one of the teams sweeping the other in the regular season and finishing 3rd inside the division. But if that team had an easier schedule than the 4th-place team, that easier-schedule team would then pick earlier in the draft.

Anyway, based on what the schedules look like, Tampa Bay looks like the front-runner for that No. 1 pick. It’s 16 opponents thus far are 106-115-3 – unlikely to be caught in the final two weeks by any of the other three 2-12 clubs.

The AFC South teams have played much easier schedules than the Raiders, so if there’s a 2-14 club in pair, it will pick in front of the Raiders, who have played the hardest schedule in the league.

Here’s the current strength of schedule numbers, with the 2-12 teams in bold.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 1-17)
TeamWLTPct
Houston991241.444
Dallas1001240.446
Pittsburgh1001213.453
Cleveland1031183.467
Detroit1051181.471
Indianapolis1051181.471
Baltimore1041173.471
Minnesota1061171.475
Philadelphia1061171.475
Tampa Bay1061153.480
New Orleans1061153.480
Green Bay1081151.484
Atlanta1071143.484
Tennessee1101131.493
Carolina1101131.493
Washington1111130.496
Cincinnati1111121.498
NY Giants1141100.509
Jacksonville1141091.511
Miami1151090.513
New England1151081.516
Buffalo1161080.518
Kansas City1161080.518
San Diego1161080.518
Chicago1161071.520
Arizona1171070.522
Denver1181051.529
Seattle1191041.533
St. Louis1201040.536
San Francisco1211030.540
NY Jets1231010.549
Oakland131930.585

And here, by the way, are the strength of schedule numbers if you remove each team’s own wins and losses. With traditional strength of schedules, poor teams tend to be rewarded (their schedules tend to look harder) and good teams tends to be penalized (their schedules tend to look easier).

But not so much this time around. Oakland still has the hardest schedule, even after removing the fact that its opponents are 12-2 against them. The Bucs are the big mover up, going from the 10th-easiest schedule to the 2nd-easiest schedule.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Revised)
TeamRk*WLTPct
Houston1921171.440
Tampa Bay10941133.455
Dallas2961140.457
Pittsburgh3951123.460
Cleveland4961113.464
Minnesota8981111.469
Tennessee14981111.469
New Orleans11981093.474
Atlanta13981093.474
Washington161001100.476
Baltimore7991083.479
Detroit51011081.483
Indianapolis61011081.483
Philadelphia91011081.483
Carolina151021080.486
Jacksonville191021071.488
Green Bay121041051.498
NY Giants181051050.500
Cincinnati171071030.510
Chicago251071021.512
Miami201081020.514
Buffalo221101000.524
Kansas City231101000.524
San Diego241101000.524
St. Louis29112980.533
NY Jets31112980.533
New England21112971.536
Arizona26114960.543
San Francisco30114960.543
Denver27115941.550
Seattle28115941.550
Oakland32119910.567

—Ian Allan

Older
Newer

Fantasy Index