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January 18, 2015

Fantasy Index Experts Poll

Low AP rating helps Livengood win RB category

The Fantasy Index Experts Poll and the Fantasy Index Open are sister competitions. The Experts Poll proper has been around for 24 years. It’s the original fantasy experts competition. We added the Open a few years back; it uses the same format but is an all-comers competition, open to any attorney, tax accountant or insurance underwriter from around the country who thinks he can build a good draft board.

Each year we invite the top 2 finishers from the Fantasy Index Open to compete against the industry analysts in the regular experts poll. They haven’t fared very well. The open champions have finished just 14th in each of the last two seasons.

But they claimed a victory today in the all-important running backs category of the Experts Poll. Michael Livengood of Ward, Ark., was the high scorer at this position, beating out Mike Clay of Pro Football Focus and Bob Henry of Footballguys.com.

Livengood was the runnerup in last year’s Fantasy Index Open, and he seems to have a good feel for these kind of competitions. He is in 5th place overall in the Fantasy Index Open again this year. That’s out of 170 entries.

The other Fantasy Index Open qualifier from last year, Tom Deskovitz from Michigan, also did well in this category, finishing 6th.

For Livengood, he won this category in the top 10. He was one of four guys who ranked Adrian Peterson down at No. 4. That helped (since Peterson was suspended for the vast majority of the season). But Livengood also generated value relative to most of the field by being one of the highest on three different backs who exceeded expectations – DeMarco Murray, Arian Foster and LeVeon Bell.

EXPERTS POLL, RUNNING BACKS (standard scoring)
RkTeamPoints
1.Michael Livengood52,074
2.Mike Clay51,754
3.Bob Henry51,383
4.Michael Nazarek51,244
5.Alan Satterlee50,842
6.Tom Deskovitz50,709
7.Micah James50,575
8.Sam Hendricks50,467
9.Bryan Hough50,256
10.Michael Fabiano50,130
11.L'Roy Anthony Hale49,725
12.Chris Liss49,646
13.Lenny Pappano49,348
14.David Dorey49,233
15.Scott Sachs48,843
16.Paul Charchian48,727
17.Scott Pianowski48,619
18.Cory Bonini48,163
19.Tony Holm46,559
20.Bill Enright46,099

We’re also experimenting this year with an alternate scoring system. In the alternate format, guys aren’t as heavily punished for players who totally flop. Think Adrian Peterson and Ray Rice. In the “Floor” scoring system, you get a guaranteed top-20 score at the QB, TE, K and D positions, reflecting what you could easily find on the waiver wire in most leagues. Most leagues require teams to start twice as many RB and WR, so we’re setting the floor at 40 there. The No. 40 running back, Darren McFadden, scored 86.6 points, so that represents the starting point. The other picks are graded only on production above and beyond that point. For guys who fell short of 86.6, you just get a zero regardless.

Using the floor system, the results are pretty similar. Sam Hendricks and Cory Bonini each climb 3 spots. Alan Satterlee is the big loser, dropping 5 spots. But the overall results don’t change too much.

EXPERTS POLL, RUNNING BACKS (Floor scoring)
RkTeamPointsPrev
1.Michael Livengood29,2071
2.Michael Nazarek28,7054
3.Mike Clay28,6072
4.Bob Henry28,5543
5.Sam Hendricks28,4328
6.Tom Deskovitz28,2226
7.Bryan Hough28,1229
8.Michael Fabiano28,08110
9.Micah James27,7627
10.Alan Satterlee27,7555
11.L'Roy Anthony Hale27,57811
12.Lenny Pappano27,21013
13.Chris Liss27,17112
14.Scott Sachs27,06815
15.Cory Bonini26,88918
16.David Dorey26,85614
17.Paul Charchian26,61816
18.Scott Pianowski26,44717
19.Tony Holm25,09419
20.Bill Enright24,04320

We’re now down to just one position left to grade – quarterbacks – and Bob Henry of Footballguys.com has a lead of 1,386 points. Michael Nazarek (Fantasy Football Mastermind), Mike Clay (Pro Football Focus) and Micah James (FFMagicman.com) round out the top 4.

Henry could potentially join Scott Pianowski (Yahoo!) as a three-time champion. Henry’s last titles came in the 2002 and 2003 seasons. He’s finished in the top 5 in each of the last three years.

EXPERTS POLL, OVERALL (standard scoring)
RkTeamPoints
1.Bob Henry200,778
2.Michael Nazarek199,392
3.Mike Clay198,619
4.Micah James198,192
5.Bryan Hough197,813
6.Michael Livengood197,561
7.Tom Deskovitz196,366
8.Alan Satterlee195,030
9.L'Roy Anthony Hale194,368
10.David Dorey194,363
11.Chris Liss193,982
12.Sam Hendricks193,656
13.Scott Pianowski193,617
14.Scott Sachs193,420
15.Lenny Pappano193,328
16.Michael Fabiano192,892
17.Cory Bonini192,399
18.Paul Charchian191,449
19.Bill Enright188,216
20.Tony Holm188,189

Henry is also the overall leader using the Floor Scoring system, but not by as much. In that format, both Nazarek and Deskovitz are within 500 points.

EXPERTS POLL, OVERALL (floor scoring)
RkTeamPointsPrev
1.Bob Henry65,7291
2.Michael Nazarek65,3112
3.Tom Deskovitz65,2567
4.Michael Livengood64,5696
5.Mike Clay64,3593
6.Bryan Hough64,2585
7.Micah James63,7194
8.Sam Hendricks63,28912
9.L'Roy Anthony Hale62,9609
10.Cory Bonini62,88217
11.David Dorey62,83710
12.Scott Sachs62,68414
13.Michael Fabiano62,54916
14.Chris Liss62,42311
15.Lenny Pappano62,22215
16.Scott Pianowski62,17213
17.Alan Satterlee61,4428
18.Paul Charchian60,64118
19.Bill Enright58,66619
20.Tony Holm57,58020
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