A brief thought on Julius Thomas and the Broncos. And I will concede it’s early to be weighing in on this topic. At this point, we don’t know if Peyton Manning will be back, and we don’t know if they’ll re-sign Julius Thomas, Demaryius Thomas, neither or both of them. I think we can assume Wes Welker is gone.
But I like to post something each day, so I will trudge ahead. Julius Thomas is the best free agent tight end on the market, but I think his situation might change a little, given that the Broncos now have Gary Kubiak at their head coach.
Some coaches seem to work from the philosophy of trying to jam the ball into the hands of their best guy around the goal line. This is Antonio Brown. He’s our best receiver, and we’re going to try to get him open.
Kubiak, however, has never been one of those coaches. He seems to operate more from a matchup/deception philosophy, more often using play fakes, bootlegs and whatnot to get some unheralded option wide open and uncovered.
Much is dependent on Peyton Manning and whether he’s back. If Manning’s there, he may be the driver on the offensive philosophy of the team. But Kubiak has a stronger voice, it probably will result in fewer red zone looks for Julius Thomas (if he re-signs).
Thomas has caught 12 TD passes in back-to-back seasons. Last year he was on his way to setting the all-time record for tight end touchdowns until ankle injuries slowed him down in the final third of the season.
But under Kubiak, starting tight ends haven’t tended to score much. He’s had some good points, but they don’t tend to score too often.
In his last 67 games, Kubiak’s teams have thrown 96 TD passes, but only 17 of those have gone to starting tight ends. In that same span, the backup tight ends on those teams actually scored more touchdowns (18 TDs).
That’s how it played out last year. Owen Daniels as a starting tight end caught 3 TDs, but Crockett Gillmore caught 2 TDs, and Daniels caught 2 TDs in Week 2 against Pittsburgh when he was a secondary guy behind Dennis Pitta.
I’m not locking down on any firm opinion on Julius Thomas right now. Way too early for that. But this is a concept that’s percolating in the back of my head.
| TIGHT END TOUCHDOWNS UNDER KUBIAK | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Starter | Backup | Total |
| 2011 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 2012 | 6 | 3 | 24 |
| 2013 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| 2014 | 3 | 4 | 33 |
| Total | 17 | 18 | 96 |
On the chart, total include two playoff games played in the 2011, 2012 and 2014 seasons. In 2013, Kubiak coached 13 games before the Texans fired him.
—Ian Allan