The NFL next week could make one of the biggest rules change of the fantasy football era. It looks like a foregone conclusion that an extra 13 yards will be added to the PAT. That’s no biggie. Teams will probably still hit over 95 percent of those kicks. But they might also move the 2-point conversion to the 1, and that would be huge.
The New England proposal is to leave the 2-point conversion at the 2-yard line. And the same is recommended by the competition committee, only with the stipulation a turnover on said plays could be returned for 2 points going the other way. My gut tells me the owners will go with one of those, which would cause no real change in the game.
But if they adopt the Philadelphia proposal, that’s when football starts to look a lot different on Sunday. The Eagles have proposed moving 2-point tries to the 1. And if they’re at that range, I think you’ll see a lot more teams going for 2 points after virtually every touchdown.
That would mean lots of extra 2-point chunks for especially quarterbacks and tailbacks. Some kickers, on the other hand, would fall significantly, losing 30-40 points on PATs.
Last year teams ran 316 plays from the 1-yard line. Of those plays, 183 were touchdowns, a success rate of 58 percent.
A 58 percent chance at 2 points? Or a 95 percent chance at 1? I think we’d see the 2-point tries start flowing.
| PLAYS FROM 1-YARD LINE | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | No | Att | Pct |
| Arizona | 4 | 7 | 57.1% |
| Atlanta | 8 | 13 | 61.5% |
| Baltimore | 8 | 17 | 47.1% |
| Buffalo | 4 | 5 | 80.0% |
| Carolina | 3 | 5 | 60.0% |
| Chicago | 4 | 12 | 33.3% |
| Cincinnati | 8 | 12 | 66.7% |
| Cleveland | 4 | 8 | 50.0% |
| Dallas | 6 | 6 | 100.0% |
| Denver | 8 | 16 | 50.0% |
| Detroit | 7 | 8 | 87.5% |
| Green Bay | 10 | 19 | 52.6% |
| Houston | 9 | 15 | 60.0% |
| Indianapolis | 10 | 14 | 71.4% |
| Jacksonville | 4 | 8 | 50.0% |
| Kansas City | 3 | 6 | 50.0% |
| Miami | 6 | 10 | 60.0% |
| Minnesota | 4 | 7 | 57.1% |
| New England | 8 | 15 | 53.3% |
| New Orleans | 8 | 16 | 50.0% |
| NY Giants | 10 | 19 | 52.6% |
| NY Jets | 3 | 3 | 100.0% |
| Oakland | 7 | 10 | 70.0% |
| Philadelphia | 7 | 11 | 63.6% |
| Pittsburgh | 5 | 9 | 55.6% |
| San Diego | 6 | 7 | 85.7% |
| San Francisco | 1 | 5 | 20.0% |
| Seattle | 3 | 8 | 37.5% |
| St. Louis | 4 | 6 | 66.7% |
| Tampa Bay | 2 | 3 | 66.7% |
| Tennessee | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |
| Washington | 7 | 12 | 58.3% |
—Ian Allan