Odd statistical fact of the day. Using the fantasy scoring system of 6 points for touchdowns and 1 point for every 10 yards, none of the teams that have posted the best rushing numbers in the last 10 years have ranked in the top 5 the previous year. Weird.
We’re busy putting the magazine together, and I apologize for not posting more stuff on the web recently. I’ve been busy.
But I posted the little chart on defenses on Saturday, showing the fluctuation at that position. So I thought I’d try the same with offenses. Specifically, comparing rushing and passing.
I stuck with teams, rather than individual players, to get out of the arena of injuries.
I took the top 5 rushing offenses for each year for the last 10 years, then look at how they did the next year. (This is using the scoring system of 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards). Then I did the same for passing offenses.
Main conclusion is that passing offenses have been more consistent.
Overall, the rushing offenses declined from 2,389 to 2,067 yards (a drop of 14 percent) and from 20.1 to 15.1 touchdowns (a drop of 25 percent). With passing offenses, they declined from 4,612 to 4,347 yards (down 9 percent) and from 33.8 to 29.2 touchdowns (14 percent).
Of the 50 passing offenses, 8 came back the next year and ranked No. 1 in passing. So the pass wins 8-0 in that category.
For ranking in the top 5, passing wins 22-17.
For ranking in the top 10, passing wins 36-30.
For categories had 12 units finish between 11th and 20th the next year.
And for crashing and burning (finishing outside the top 20) it happened to only two passing offense but occurred eight times with running teams.
This supports the idea that there’s some merit to going after quarterbacks like Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers. Passing is more solid. We know which teams are going to jack up a bunch of passing yards and touchdowns. We know that Jay Cutler, Teddy Bridgewater, Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick won’t be top-5 quarterbacks. Almost all of the stud passers will be guys that everyone sees coming.
But at running back, there is some ability to find and manufacture production. There will be some guys coming out of the woodwork – like C.J. Anderson and Jeremy Hill putting up top-5 numbers in the second half of last year.
On charts below, if an offense has a black dot, it ranked in the top 10. Two black dots means top 5. If it’s in bold, then it was outside the top 20.
HOW TOP-5 RUSHING OFFENSES HAVE FARED | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Yards | TD | Points | Rk |
2005 | •• Kansas City | 2,382 | 26 | 394.2 | 3 |
2005 | •• Atlanta | 2,546 | 17 | 356.6 | 4 |
2005 | •• Pittsburgh | 2,223 | 21 | 348.3 | 5 |
2005 | • San Diego | 2,072 | 22 | 339.2 | 6 |
2005 | NY Jets | 1,328 | 10 | 192.8 | 29 |
2006 | •• Atlanta | 2,939 | 9 | 347.9 | 3 |
2006 | • Kansas City | 2,143 | 17 | 316.3 | 6 |
2006 | • Pittsburgh | 1,992 | 16 | 295.2 | 10 |
2006 | Denver | 2,152 | 12 | 287.2 | 13 |
2006 | Seattle | 1,923 | 8 | 240.3 | 22 |
2007 | •• Jacksonville | 2,391 | 18 | 347.1 | 2 |
2007 | •• San Diego | 2,039 | 19 | 317.9 | 3 |
2007 | • New England | 1,849 | 17 | 286.9 | 6 |
2007 | Dallas | 1,746 | 14 | 258.6 | 14 |
2007 | Atlanta | 1,520 | 7 | 194.0 | 29 |
2008 | •• NY Giants | 2,518 | 19 | 365.8 | 3 |
2008 | •• Tennessee | 2,199 | 24 | 363.9 | 4 |
2008 | • Minnesota | 2,332 | 15 | 323.2 | 7 |
2008 | Jacksonville | 1,774 | 17 | 279.4 | 14 |
2008 | San Diego | 1,726 | 13 | 250.6 | 21 |
2009 | •• Tennessee | 2,592 | 19 | 373.2 | 2 |
2009 | •• Carolina | 2,498 | 18 | 357.8 | 3 |
2009 | •• Baltimore | 2,200 | 22 | 352.0 | 5 |
2009 | Atlanta | 1,876 | 15 | 277.6 | 12 |
2009 | NY Giants | 1,837 | 14 | 267.7 | 14 |
2010 | • NY Jets | 2,374 | 14 | 321.4 | 7 |
2010 | Tennessee | 1,727 | 13 | 250.7 | 14 |
2010 | Baltimore | 1,831 | 11 | 249.1 | 15 |
2010 | Carolina | 1,846 | 7 | 226.6 | 21 |
2010 | Miami | 1,643 | 8 | 212.3 | 26 |
2011 | •• Houston | 2,448 | 18 | 352.8 | 2 |
2011 | •• Philadelphia | 2,276 | 20 | 347.6 | 3 |
2011 | • Oakland | 2,110 | 16 | 307.0 | 7 |
2011 | Jacksonville | 1,970 | 9 | 251.0 | 19 |
2011 | Kansas City | 1,893 | 5 | 219.3 | 24 |
2012 | •• Minnesota | 2,634 | 16 | 359.4 | 3 |
2012 | • Carolina | 2,088 | 21 | 334.8 | 6 |
2012 | • Houston | 2,123 | 19 | 326.3 | 7 |
2012 | Denver | 1,832 | 12 | 255.2 | 17 |
2012 | Philadelphia | 1,874 | 10 | 247.4 | 18 |
2013 | •• Minnesota | 2,081 | 23 | 346.1 | 2 |
2013 | •• San Francisco | 2,201 | 18 | 328.1 | 3 |
2013 | •• New England | 2,065 | 19 | 320.5 | 5 |
2013 | • Seattle | 2,188 | 14 | 302.8 | 8 |
2013 | • Washington | 2,164 | 14 | 300.4 | 9 |
2014 | • Philadelphia | 1,992 | 16 | 295.2 | 6 |
2014 | • San Francisco | 2,176 | 10 | 277.6 | 10 |
2014 | Minnesota | 1,804 | 12 | 252.4 | 17 |
2014 | New England | 1,727 | 13 | 250.7 | 18 |
2014 | Buffalo | 1,482 | 7 | 190.2 | 27 |
HOW TOP-5 PASSING OFFENSES HAVE FARED | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Yards | TD | Points | Rk |
2005 | •• Indianapolis | 4,191 | 31 | 605.1 | 1 |
2005 | • Green Bay | 3,964 | 20 | 516.4 | 8 |
2005 | • Philadelphia | 3,903 | 21 | 516.3 | 9 |
2005 | Kansas City | 4,014 | 17 | 503.4 | 12 |
2005 | Minnesota | 3,449 | 18 | 452.9 | 19 |
2006 | •• Indianapolis | 4,397 | 31 | 625.7 | 1 |
2006 | •• St. Louis | 4,328 | 24 | 576.8 | 4 |
2006 | •• Cincinnati | 4,066 | 28 | 574.6 | 5 |
2006 | • New England | 3,590 | 25 | 509.0 | 9 |
2006 | Arizona | 3,924 | 17 | 494.4 | 11 |
2007 | •• New Orleans | 4,423 | 28 | 610.3 | 5 |
2007 | • Indianapolis | 4,172 | 32 | 609.2 | 6 |
2007 | • Cincinnati | 4,131 | 26 | 569.1 | 8 |
2007 | Philadelphia | 4,005 | 24 | 544.5 | 11 |
2007 | St. Louis | 3,561 | 19 | 470.1 | 19 |
2008 | •• New Orleans | 5,069 | 34 | 710.9 | 1 |
2008 | •• Arizona | 4,875 | 31 | 673.5 | 2 |
2008 | • Dallas | 3,988 | 29 | 572.8 | 7 |
2008 | • Green Bay | 4,044 | 28 | 572.4 | 8 |
2008 | • New England | 3,790 | 21 | 505.0 | 10 |
2009 | •• Indianapolis | 4,605 | 34 | 664.5 | 1 |
2009 | •• New Orleans | 4,490 | 34 | 653.0 | 3 |
2009 | • San Diego | 4,506 | 29 | 624.6 | 6 |
2009 | Arizona | 4,200 | 27 | 582.0 | 12 |
2009 | Denver | 3,825 | 21 | 508.5 | 15 |
2010 | •• Indianapolis | 4,700 | 33 | 668.0 | 1 |
2010 | •• New Orleans | 4,636 | 33 | 661.6 | 2 |
2010 | •• Green Bay | 4,355 | 31 | 621.5 | 5 |
2010 | • Houston | 4,370 | 24 | 581.0 | 9 |
2010 | Minnesota | 3,327 | 14 | 416.7 | 29 |
2011 | •• New Orleans | 5,505 | 46 | 826.5 | 1 |
2011 | •• Green Bay | 5,161 | 51 | 822.1 | 2 |
2011 | •• New England | 5,257 | 39 | 759.7 | 3 |
2011 | • San Diego | 4,624 | 27 | 624.4 | 7 |
2011 | Indianapolis | 3,223 | 14 | 406.3 | 29 |
2012 | •• New Orleans | 5,187 | 43 | 776.7 | 1 |
2012 | •• New England | 4,844 | 34 | 688.4 | 3 |
2012 | •• Green Bay | 4,342 | 40 | 674.2 | 4 |
2012 | • Detroit | 5,139 | 22 | 645.9 | 7 |
2012 | NY Giants | 3,967 | 26 | 552.7 | 12 |
2013 | •• Denver | 5,572 | 55 | 887.2 | 1 |
2013 | •• New Orleans | 5,162 | 39 | 750.2 | 2 |
2013 | • Dallas | 4,226 | 33 | 620.6 | 8 |
2013 | • Green Bay | 4,538 | 25 | 603.8 | 10 |
2013 | New England | 4,343 | 25 | 584.3 | 13 |
2014 | •• Denver | 4,661 | 40 | 706.1 | 2 |
2014 | •• New Orleans | 4,764 | 33 | 674.4 | 4 |
2014 | San Diego | 4,098 | 31 | 595.8 | 11 |
2014 | Chicago | 3,792 | 30 | 559.2 | 12 |
2014 | Detroit | 4,030 | 22 | 535.0 | 14 |