Are wide receivers safer picks than running backs? That is, late in the first round are we better off going for a guy like Antonio Brown or Julio Jones or Dez Bryant, rather than a running back like DeMarco Murray, Jeremy Hill or C.J. Anderson? At times, it definitely seems that way. Running backs are more likely to get injured.
When I get out the numbers, however, the difference isn’t as severe as I thought it would be.
For this one, I took the top 100 running backs of the last 10 years and the top 100 wide receivers in the same time period. Then I looked at how they performed in their following season.
The wide receivers, in their big seasons, averaged 90 catches for 1,322 yards and 10.2 TDs. On average, they decreased by 15 receptions, 277 yards and 3.3 TDs. So overall, when you select one of these receivers, you can expect a stat decline of 25 percent.
There tends to be plenty of underachievers at running back – think Adrian Peterson, Monte Ball and LeSean McCoy, but the difference isn’t as much as you might think. The 100 running backs in their big seasons averaged 1,757 total yards (run and rec), with 13.3 TDs. The next year, those same running backs averaged 1,316 yards and 9.1 touchdowns. For fantasy purposes, that’s a decline of 27 percent – almost the same.
If you want to look at just the top 50 instead (about the top 5 each year) it’s about the same – almost identical. Running backs start off at 1,970 yards and 15.4 TDs and decline to 1,456 yards and 10 TDs, a drop of 28 percent. Wide receivers start off at 1,397 yards and 11.5 TDs and decline to 1,055 yards and 7.6 TDs (also a drop of 28 percent).
With either group, when you take a player who was successful, you are unlikely to see him put up even better numbers the next year. For wide receivers, only 17 came back and compiled even better numbers. So about one in five.
| TOP RECEIVERS THAT IMPROVED | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No | Yds | TD | Pct |
| 2011 | Calvin Johnson | 96 | 1,681 | 16 | 42% |
| 2014 | Jordy Nelson | 98 | 1,519 | 13 | 28% |
| 2014 | Antonio Brown | 129 | 1,698 | 14 | 27% |
| 2007 | Terrell Owens | 81 | 1,355 | 15 | 14% |
| 2014 | Dez Bryant | 88 | 1,320 | 16 | 13% |
| 2007 | Reggie Wayne | 104 | 1,510 | 10 | 13% |
| 2010 | Roddy White | 115 | 1,389 | 10 | 12% |
| 2006 | Marvin Harrison | 95 | 1,366 | 12 | 12% |
| 2013 | Demaryius Thomas | 92 | 1,430 | 14 | 12% |
| 2005 | Chad Johnson | 97 | 1,432 | 9 | 9% |
| 2007 | Chad Johnson | 93 | 1,440 | 8 | 7% |
| 2008 | Larry Fitzgerald | 96 | 1,431 | 12 | 7% |
| 2013 | Eric Decker | 87 | 1,288 | 11 | 6% |
| 2013 | A.J. Green | 98 | 1,426 | 11 | 4% |
| 2009 | Andre Johnson | 101 | 1,569 | 9 | 4% |
| 2014 | Demaryius Thomas | 111 | 1,619 | 11 | 1% |
| 2009 | Roddy White | 85 | 1,153 | 11 | 1% |
For running backs, 22 of the 100 came back and put up even better numbers. Also about one in five.
| RUNNING BACKS WHO IMPROVED | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Run | Rec | TD | Pct |
| 2009 | Chris Johnson | 2,006 | 503 | 16 | 67% |
| 2013 | Jamaal Charles | 1,287 | 693 | 19 | 48% |
| 2014 | DeMarco Murray | 1,845 | 416 | 13 | 47% |
| 2011 | Ray Rice | 1,364 | 704 | 15 | 41% |
| 2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 1,815 | 508 | 31 | 35% |
| 2011 | Maurice Jones-Drew | 1,606 | 374 | 11 | 28% |
| 2011 | LeSean McCoy | 1,309 | 315 | 20 | 28% |
| 2009 | Maurice Jones-Drew | 1,391 | 374 | 16 | 22% |
| 2005 | Shaun Alexander | 1,880 | 78 | 28 | 19% |
| 2004 | Edgerrin James | 1,548 | 483 | 9 | 17% |
| 2009 | Adrian Peterson | 1,383 | 436 | 18 | 17% |
| 2012 | Marshawn Lynch | 1,590 | 196 | 12 | 14% |
| 2004 | Shaun Alexander | 1,696 | 170 | 20 | 14% |
| 2014 | Eddie Lacy | 1,139 | 427 | 13 | 12% |
| 2014 | Marshawn Lynch | 1,306 | 367 | 17 | 12% |
| 2005 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 1,462 | 370 | 20 | 10% |
| 2007 | Brian Westbrook | 1,333 | 771 | 12 | 10% |
| 2008 | Adrian Peterson | 1,760 | 125 | 10 | 4% |
| 2012 | Arian Foster | 1,424 | 217 | 17 | 4% |
| 2005 | Edgerrin James | 1,506 | 337 | 14 | 4% |
| 2005 | Tiki Barber | 1,860 | 530 | 11 | 2% |
| 2005 | Rudi Johnson | 1,458 | 90 | 12 | 0% |
For wide receivers, 14 of the 100 came back and finished with numbers that weren’t even half as good. Busts, for fantasy purposes.
| RECEIVERS FALLING BY 50 PERCENT | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No | Yds | TD | Pct |
| 2008 | Braylon Edwards | 55 | 873 | 3 | -51% |
| 2005 | Muhsin Muhammad | 64 | 750 | 4 | -58% |
| 2008 | Chad Johnson | 53 | 540 | 4 | -59% |
| 2008 | Plaxico Burress | 35 | 454 | 4 | -60% |
| 2013 | Julio Jones | 41 | 580 | 2 | -61% |
| 2011 | Andre Johnson | 33 | 492 | 2 | -64% |
| 2005 | Brandon Stokley | 41 | 543 | 1 | -64% |
| 2005 | Joe Horn | 49 | 654 | 1 | -66% |
| 2010 | Randy Moss | 28 | 393 | 5 | -66% |
| 2010 | Vincent Jackson | 14 | 248 | 3 | -75% |
| 2010 | Sidney Rice | 17 | 280 | 2 | -78% |
| 2007 | Marvin Harrison | 20 | 247 | 1 | -85% |
| 2014 | Josh Gordon | 24 | 303 | 0 | -86% |
| 2005 | Javon Walker | 4 | 27 | 0 | -99% |
For running backs, there’s a higher percentage of guys who came back and kind of fell apart – fell well short of where they were the previous year. Of the 100, 22 didn’t even finish with numbers that were half as good.
| RUNNING BACKS FALLING BY 50 PERCENT | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Run | Rec | TD | Pct |
| 2008 | Joseph Addai | 544 | 206 | 7 | -50% |
| 2004 | Jamal Lewis | 1006 | 116 | 7 | -50% |
| 2011 | Darren McFadden | 614 | 154 | 5 | -53% |
| 2010 | Ricky Williams | 673 | 141 | 3 | -55% |
| 2006 | Clinton Portis | 523 | 170 | 7 | -55% |
| 2005 | Curtis Martin | 735 | 118 | 5 | -59% |
| 2007 | Rudi Johnson | 497 | 110 | 4 | -60% |
| 2006 | Shaun Alexander | 896 | 48 | 7 | -63% |
| 2011 | Peyton Hillis | 587 | 130 | 3 | -63% |
| 2013 | Arian Foster | 542 | 183 | 2 | -67% |
| 2009 | Clinton Portis | 494 | 57 | 2 | -70% |
| 2007 | Larry Johnson | 559 | 186 | 4 | -71% |
| 2006 | LaMont Jordan | 434 | 74 | 2 | -72% |
| 2009 | Brian Westbrook | 274 | 181 | 2 | -74% |
| 2012 | Maurice Jones-Drew | 414 | 86 | 2 | -77% |
| 2013 | Doug Martin | 456 | 66 | 1 | -78% |
| 2004 | Travis Henry | 326 | 45 | 0 | -83% |
| 2014 | Knowshon Moreno | 148 | 8 | 1 | -91% |
| 2011 | Jamaal Charles | 83 | 9 | 1 | -94% |
| 2004 | Stephen Davis | 92 | 32 | 0 | -94% |
| 2014 | Adrian Peterson | 75 | 18 | 0 | -96% |
| 2010 | Ryan Grant | 45 | 0 | 0 | -98% |
So it seems like for fantasy purposes, in general when you take a wide receiver in the first round, it’s very normal to expect some decline – think 20 percent or so – when you select a receiver in the first or second round. With running back, it seems like more of the guys come close to putting up the same kind of numbers, but there are also more who simply faceplant and turn into a big pile of poo.
For both running backs and wide receivers, I disregarded players who didn’t play at all the following season. I didn’t want to pollute the study with anyone who retired or got hurt in the offseason.
—Ian Allan