If you want a really good wide receiver – a gamebreaker kind of guy – where should you look? That is, at what ages do wide receivers tend to put up their best ball. In a general sense, you might think old guys have slowed down too much, while youngsters don’t have enough know-how and experience. But how do we find that happy medium.
It’s different for different guys, of course, but we if we cast a large net over a large pool of receivers, it seems like wide receivers tend to play their best ball when they are 25 or 26 years old.
Here’s how I arrived at that conclusion.
I started by taking the 500 most productive wide receivers of the last 25 years. Then I tossed out the first four seasons (1991-1994). I didn’t want to mix in veteran receivers who perhaps had better years when they were younger in the late ‘80s. Similarly, I tossed out players with less than three years of present-day experience. While Mike Evans and Odell Beckham, for example, had big seasons as rookies, it’s too early to say if those will be the best seasons of their careers.
Then, for remaining players, I identified the best season of said player’s career. Each guy counts only once for the last 20 years. And this is a pool of 153 different players.
Now we can look at the ages of those 153 guys and see what emerges.
For starters, I don’t see many old guys. Only 7 of the 153 are over 31 years old. Not that this means you shouldn’t draft players like Roddy White and Andre Johnson. But with those guys, you’re not drafting them hoping you’re going to get their best season. You would be just hoping for serviceable production.
Similarly, only 6 guys under 23 years old. You don’t select those guys thinking they’re going to be their best coming out of the gate.
The best years are at 25 and 26 years old, with a combined 54 players. The 29-year-olds finish in 3rd place, with 16 players. No other group has more than 14.
| BEST SEASONS FOR RECEIVERS | |
|---|---|
| Age | Players |
| 21 | 1 |
| 22 | 5 |
| 23 | 11 |
| 24 | 12 |
| 25 | 30 |
| 26 | 24 |
| 27 | 14 |
| 28 | 12 |
| 29 | 16 |
| 30 | 13 |
| 31 | 8 |
| 32 | 2 |
| 33 | 2 |
| 34 | 3 |
If you look at the top 30 receivers of the last 20 years (again, with each player only credited with his best season) only two of those players are older than 30 and only four are younger than 25. So 80 percent of the receivers are 25-30 years old.
On this chart, I’ve got the young guys (under 25) flagged with dots •. I’ve got the two guys over 30 tagged with double dots ••.
| TOP 30 RECEIVERS OF LAST 20 YEARS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No | TD | Age | Yr |
| 1995 | •• Jerry Rice | 1,884 | 17 | 33 | 11 |
| 2007 | Randy Moss | 1,493 | 23 | 30 | 10 |
| 2011 | Calvin Johnson | 1,692 | 16 | 26 | 5 |
| 1995 | • Isaac Bruce | 1,798 | 13 | 23 | 2 |
| 2014 | Antonio Brown | 1,711 | 14 | 26 | 5 |
| 1995 | Herman Moore | 1,686 | 14 | 26 | 5 |
| 2001 | Marvin Harrison | 1,527 | 15 | 29 | 6 |
| 2003 | Torry Holt | 1,701 | 12 | 27 | 5 |
| 2001 | Terrell Owens | 1,433 | 16 | 28 | 6 |
| 1995 | Cris Carter | 1,371 | 17 | 30 | 9 |
| 2004 | •• Muhsin Muhammad | 1,420 | 16 | 31 | 9 |
| 2005 | Steve Smith Sr. | 1,588 | 13 | 26 | 5 |
| 2014 | Jordy Nelson | 1,519 | 13 | 29 | 7 |
| 1995 | Robert Brooks | 1,518 | 13 | 25 | 4 |
| 2014 | Dez Bryant | 1,320 | 16 | 26 | 5 |
| 2014 | Demaryius Thomas | 1,619 | 11 | 27 | 5 |
| 2013 | • Josh Gordon | 1,734 | 9 | 22 | 2 |
| 1998 | Antonio Freeman | 1,429 | 14 | 26 | 4 |
| 1995 | Carl Pickens | 1,240 | 17 | 25 | 4 |
| 2007 | • Braylon Edwards | 1,289 | 16 | 24 | 3 |
| 2000 | Rod Smith | 1,701 | 9 | 30 | 6 |
| 1995 | Michael Irvin | 1,603 | 10 | 29 | 8 |
| 2002 | Hines Ward | 1,471 | 12 | 26 | 5 |
| 2012 | Brandon Marshall | 1,506 | 11 | 28 | 7 |
| 2008 | Larry Fitzgerald | 1,431 | 12 | 25 | 5 |
| 2011 | Wes Welker | 1,599 | 9 | 30 | 8 |
| 2007 | Reggie Wayne | 1,514 | 10 | 29 | 7 |
| 2001 | • David Boston | 1,633 | 8 | 23 | 3 |
| 2009 | Andre Johnson | 1,569 | 9 | 28 | 7 |
| 2004 | Javon Walker | 1,382 | 12 | 26 | 3 |
As we try to apply this to our 2015 franchise receiving candidates, they look pretty good. Jordy Nelson is getting on the older side (he’s 30) but he should be fine. Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant and Emmanuel Sanders will all be 27-28 at the end of the year. Julio Jones and Randall Cobb hit on the two most popular years (Jones is 26, while Cobb will be 25 at the end of the year). Beckham is the young guy (22 in November).