It’s becoming more apparent that Tyrod Taylor will start games for the Bills this year. He might be their opening day starter, and it will be a surprise, I think, if he’s not starting before the end of September. With that in mind, I have re-watched his three possessions from the Carolina game, keying on just him. Trying to gauge his fantasy value.
Drives went like this.
1-10-BUF 35. Williams 10 run.
1-10-BUF 45. Taylor 10 run.
1-10-CAR 45. Taylor pass incomplete deep left to Goodwin.
2-10-CAR 45.
Taylor gets outside for 20, plus unnecessary roughness penalty.
1-10-CAR 12. Williams 0 run.
2-10-CAR 12. Taylor scrambles up middle for 5, plus horse-collar penalty.
1-3-CAR 3. Williams 2 run.
2-1-CAR 1. Williams 1 run. Touchdown.
Comments: He does have some Vick-like speed. Rex Ryan calls him the fastest quarterback in the league. On both his 10- and 20-yard runs, he was able to get outside for big gains; most quarterbacks don’t have that kind of speed. He also has a willingness to run. That is, he’s a guy who’ll look to run it in on his own when they’re inside the 10. Squirted up the middle for a 5-yard run gain on a 2nd-and-goal from the 12. Only pass on this 65-yard drive was a long ball down the left sideline. He threw it very early and it seemed like a good enough throw. The receiver (Goodwin) was late looking for the ball and wasn’t able to adjust to it, and it landed incomplete, well away from Goodwin and the defender.
1-10-BUF 10. Williams 2 run.
2-8-BUF 12. Taylor to Goodwin for 29.
1-10-BUF 41. Williams 3 run.
2-7-BUF 44. Williams 2 run.
3-5-BUF 46. Taylor to Williams for 13.
2-6-CAR 37. Goodwin 2 run. End-around.
3-4-CAR 35. Taylor to Brown for 5.
1-10-CAR 30. Brown 7 run.
2-3-CAR 23. Taylor 3 run.
1-10-CAR 20. Taylor incomplete to Thompson in end zone.
2-10-CAR 20. Brown 16 run.
1-4-CAR 4. Brown 4 run. Touchdown.
Comments: One run on this drive. Didn’t gain many yards but was able to stretch for 3-yard gain and a first down as he was getting knocked out of bounds. Got tackled for the third time in the game (who long can he stay healthy)? Completed 3 passes on this drive, but all were short passes with no touch or accuracy required. On Goodwin’s 29-yard gain, that was a short ball underneath that Goodwin turned into a long gainer. Most impressive play came on third-and-5 at midfield, where the pass rusher had a clean shot at him. Taylor was able to spin away using that Tony Romo move, then hit Williams for the 13-yard gain to move the sticks. He had one deep ball on this drive. From the 20, he lofted a ball down the left sideline that Deonte Thompson got his hands on 5 yards into the end zone. I won’t call it a drop, but many wide receivers would have hung onto it for the touchdown. Nice throw.
1-10-CAR 45. Taylor to Brown for no gain.
2-10-CAR 46. Taylor to Hogan for 2.
3-8-CAR 44. Taylor 5 run.
4-3-CAR 39. Taylor incomplete to Thompson.
Comments: This was at the end of the half, with about a minute left, and it was his worst drive. Needed to move the ball about 10 yards to get into field goal range. Only 2 completions were both short balls with no accuracy or touch required, putting them in third-and-long. Panthers dropped into coverage, then had no problem stepping up and stopping him when he tried to scramble for a first down. The fourth down play was poor. With only about 35 seconds left, he overthrew Deonte Thompson deep down the field. On that kind of play, it made a lot more sense to at least put the ball up for grabs (increasing probability of a completion or an interception).
So where does this leave us?
I think he’s a Vick-type quarterback. Doesn’t have Vick’s cannon arm, of course, but a short quarterback with unusual running ability. They will work that scrambling ability into their offense, and it might help open things up some for LeSean McCoy. Defenses will have to be aware of Taylor’s ability to scoot outside for 10-20 yard runs. Taylor ran 15 times for 124 yards in the preseason last year with Baltimore, averaging 8.3 yards per carry.
With his running ability and the team likely encouraging him to run, I think he’ll average 40-50 yards per game rushing when he’s starting. So there’s some fantasy value there.
I do not, however, see enough passing ability. I don’t see the decision making and the accuracy on the downfield, dynamic plays. Buffalo has Sammy Watkins, but I don’t see Taylor consistently getting him the ball on deeper routes.
Taylor’s stats in the preseason last year were kind of serviceable – 35 of 55 for 345 yards, with 3 TDs and 2 interceptions. Just under 64 percent completions.
The previous preseason, he went 21 of 36 for 263, with 4 TDs and another 2 interceptions.
With Baltimore, Taylor got to play one regular-season game (when they pulled Joe Flacco after a couple of plays at Cincinnati in Week 17 in 2012). Taylor in that game went 15 of 25 for 149 yards, with no touchdowns and an interception. He ran for 65 yards on 9 carries, with a touchdown.
In his final two years at Virginia Tech, Taylor completed 58 percent of his passes, with 37 TDs vs. only 10 interceptions (an impressive ratio). He also ran for 738, 370 and 659 yards in his last three years with the Hokies, with 7, 5 and 5 TDs. Baltimore saw enough to draft him in the sixth round in 2011.
So if and when he’s playing, I think Taylor will probably be a top-4 rusher (among quarterbacks) and a bottom-4 passer. Probably about 60 percent completions, and maybe something like 180-200 yards per game, with 14-18 TD passes if he were somehow able to start all 16 games.
With the running ability, I will concede that he’s a viable fill-in option if you have the right scoring system (and a good matchup).
Durability is an issue; takes too many hits.
—Ian Allan