We look at Strength of Schedule, but it’s based on what teams did last year. The flaw there is that teams change. Many defenses will be a lot better or a lot worse, so why attach much meaning to what they did way back in 2014? So here’s a Strength of Schedule chart based not on what defenses did last year, but on what we think they’ll do this year.
We’ve seen all of these teams at least twice in the preseason. We also carefully scouted them in the offseason, looking at what they did in 2014, what players they signed or drafted in the offseason, and how their system might have changed.
We’ve got the itemized defensive projections, and those include our forecast of exactly how many points each NFL team will allow.
So why not plug those figures into our strength of schedule calculator? Better yet, why not plug them in and run them side-by-side with the actual 2014 numbers?
We did just that. Changes aren’t quite as remarkable as I was hoping.
The five easiest schedules still project to be played by Washington and the four teams in the NFC South.
The two hardest schedule still project to be played by the Steelers and Bengals.
The four biggest movers in a positive way. That is, the four teams that schedules all get at least seven spots easier using the make-believe numbers – Seahawks, Rams, Broncos, Vikings.
The four biggest losers appear to be the Raiders, Jaguars and Patriots. All four schedules get at least eight spots more difficult.
Here be the numbers. Making sense of them (left to right) you have the name name, the average number of points allowed using 2014 figures, the rank in said category, and the average number of points allowed using our projected numbers.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (points) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Actual | Rank | Proj |
| Carolina | 24.3 | 2 | 23.5 |
| Tampa Bay | 24.8 | 1 | 23.4 |
| Atlanta | 24.3 | 3 | 23.4 |
| New Orleans | 23.8 | 5 | 23.3 |
| Washington | 23.8 | 4 | 23.0 |
| Philadelphia | 23.3 | 12 | 23.0 |
| NY Giants | 23.7 | 7 | 23.0 |
| Dallas | 23.7 | 6 | 22.8 |
| Houston | 23.7 | 8 | 22.6 |
| NY Jets | 22.9 | 15 | 22.5 |
| Indianapolis | 23.6 | 9 | 22.5 |
| Buffalo | 23.1 | 13 | 22.5 |
| Minnesota | 22.0 | 20 | 22.4 |
| Denver | 21.9 | 21 | 22.3 |
| Tennessee | 23.3 | 10 | 22.3 |
| Detroit | 22.5 | 16 | 22.3 |
| Seattle | 21.4 | 27 | 22.3 |
| Baltimore | 21.7 | 23 | 22.2 |
| St. Louis | 21.1 | 29 | 22.2 |
| New England | 23.3 | 11 | 22.2 |
| San Diego | 22.4 | 18 | 22.2 |
| Miami | 22.5 | 17 | 22.1 |
| Jacksonville | 23.0 | 14 | 22.1 |
| Green Bay | 21.6 | 25 | 22.1 |
| Kansas City | 22.1 | 19 | 22.0 |
| Cleveland | 21.7 | 24 | 22.0 |
| Arizona | 21.4 | 26 | 22.0 |
| Chicago | 21.4 | 28 | 22.0 |
| San Francisco | 21.1 | 30 | 22.0 |
| Oakland | 21.8 | 22 | 21.8 |
| Pittsburgh | 20.8 | 31 | 21.6 |
| Cincinnati | 20.7 | 32 | 21.6 |
—Ian Allan