We’ve seen every team play its two most meaningful preseason games. We now have some idea (a better idea, hopefully) of where they’re headed. We can start to stick them in an order of 1 thru 32 and start figuring out who’s winning divisions and playoff spots. And we can then reverse engineer those opinions to calculate which teams will play the hardest schedules.
For starters, I offer my 1 thru 32 rankings of how good I think these teams are. Note that the wins and losses here aren’t my forecast of how they will finish. I don’t have the schedule in front of me. Instead, it’s how I feel they would finish if all 32 teams were playing an average, typical schedule.
| NFL POWER RANKINGS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Team | W | L |
| 1. | Green Bay | 11 | 5 |
| 2. | Philadelphia | 11 | 5 |
| 3. | Denver | 11 | 5 |
| 4. | Indianapolis | 11 | 5 |
| 5. | Seattle | 11 | 5 |
| 6. | New England | 11 | 5 |
| 7. | Baltimore | 10 | 6 |
| 8. | Kansas City | 9 | 7 |
| 9. | Miami | 9 | 7 |
| 10. | Atlanta | 9 | 7 |
| 11. | Buffalo | 9 | 7 |
| 12. | Pittsburgh | 9 | 7 |
| 13. | New Orleans | 8 | 8 |
| 14. | Minnesota | 8 | 8 |
| 15. | NY Giants | 8 | 8 |
| 16. | San Diego | 8 | 8 |
| 17. | Cincinnati | 8 | 8 |
| 18. | Detroit | 8 | 8 |
| 19. | Houston | 8 | 8 |
| 20. | Arizona | 8 | 8 |
| 21. | Carolina | 8 | 8 |
| 22. | Dallas | 7 | 9 |
| 23. | NY Jets | 7 | 9 |
| 24. | San Francisco | 6 | 10 |
| 25. | St. Louis | 6 | 10 |
| 26. | Cleveland | 6 | 10 |
| 27. | Oakland | 6 | 10 |
| 28. | Chicago | 5 | 11 |
| 29. | Jacksonville | 5 | 11 |
| 30. | Tampa Bay | 5 | 11 |
| 31. | Tennessee | 5 | 11 |
| 32. | Washington | 5 | 11 |
No doubt you’ll feel differently on many of these teams than I do. But whatever. After studying these teams over the offseason and seeing them on the field for some sample plays, that’s what they look like to me.
And moving to step two, we can then take those wins and losses and plug them into the 2015 schedule, showing which teams should play the hardest schedules. And we can compare that to the results yielded when you do the same with their actual 2014 records.
That turns out like this. For each team you’re seeing the initial number of wins for strength of schedule (“Actual”) followed by the new number of wins, using my 1-32 power rankings.
| ADJUSTED STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Actual | New | Diff |
| Atlanta | 105 | 116 | -11 |
| New Orleans | 110 | 120 | -10 |
| Seattle | 143 | 120 | 23 |
| Tampa Bay | 109 | 121 | -12 |
| • Indianapolis | 106.5 | 122 | -15.5 |
| Philadelphia | 121.5 | 122 | -0.5 |
| Green Bay | 135.5 | 122 | 13.5 |
| • Houston | 107 | 125 | -18 |
| Baltimore | 138 | 125 | 13 |
| St. Louis | 141.5 | 125 | 16.5 |
| • Carolina | 111 | 126 | -15 |
| • Tennessee | 111.5 | 126 | -14.5 |
| NY Giants | 122.5 | 126 | -3.5 |
| Washington | 122.5 | 129 | -6.5 |
| Chicago | 136 | 129 | 7 |
| New England | 122 | 130 | -8 |
| NY Jets | 125 | 130 | -5 |
| Minnesota | 138 | 130 | 8 |
| Arizona | 142.5 | 130 | 12.5 |
| Buffalo | 124.5 | 131 | -6.5 |
| San Diego | 132.5 | 131 | 1.5 |
| Cleveland | 139 | 131 | 8 |
| • Jacksonville | 118.5 | 132 | -13.5 |
| Miami | 126 | 132 | -6 |
| Detroit | 135 | 132 | 3 |
| Kansas City | 139.5 | 132 | 7.5 |
| San Francisco | 143.5 | 132 | 11.5 |
| Cincinnati | 144 | 132 | 12 |
| Denver | 138.5 | 133 | 5.5 |
| Oakland | 139.5 | 133 | 6.5 |
| Pittsburgh | 148 | 135 | 13 |
| • Dallas | 119.5 | 136 | -16.5 |
Atlanta shows up No. 1 via both methods, so it sure seems as if the Falcons will benefit from playing an easy schedule. The Saints and Bucs are up there in both versions as well.
But let’s look at the movers.
Five teams play schedules that get at least 13 games easier. That includes Seattle (moving by a league-high 23 games), St. Louis, Green Bay, Baltimore and Pittsburgh. I’ve got all of those teams in bold.
The Seahawks are the most notable mover. They go from playing one of the toughest schedules to one of the easiest.
Six teams, meanwhile, play schedules that get over 13 games harder. The two Texas franchises are the biggest movers, Houston and Dallas. Others with schedules that get a lot harder include the Colts, Panthers, Titans and Jaguars. I’ve got all of those six teams tagged with black dots.
The Cowboys are the most noteworthy negative mover. They go from having a top-10 easy schedule to playing the hardest schedule in the league.
—Ian Allan