Let’s take another look at Strength of Schedule. We’ve had a chance to see everyone play twice, so we know have some idea of what these teams are all about. And we can then plug those opinions back into the schedule and get an idea of which teams will be helped (and hurt) by scheduling.
Big picture, it’s still all about the South. The two south divisions are definitely the weakest in each conference, and as luck would have it, those divisions line up against each other this year. So no need to panic for those in Indianapolis. They’ve still got 10 games coming up against those South Division opponents, and of those games, only one (Carolina) has a viable defense.
The AFC East looks very tough, with the Patriots the best team in football and both the Bills and Jets looking tough. The Dolphins are a good last-place team. They pair against the NFC East, which looks pretty soft this year.
For starters, here’s how I view each of the 32 teams. That is, this is how I think the teams would finish if right now they started a new season, with each franchise playing an average schedule.
| POWER RANKINGS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | T | Pct. |
| New England | 14 | 2 | 0 | .875 |
| Denver | 13 | 3 | 0 | .813 |
| Green Bay | 12 | 4 | 0 | .750 |
| Seattle | 11 | 4 | 1 | .719 |
| Arizona | 10 | 5 | 1 | .656 |
| Cincinnati | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 |
| Pittsburgh | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 |
| Kansas City | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
| Buffalo | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
| San Diego | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
| NY Jets | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
| Indianapolis | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
| Carolina | 8 | 7 | 1 | .531 |
| Minnesota | 8 | 7 | 1 | .531 |
| Baltimore | 8 | 7 | 1 | .531 |
| Atlanta | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
| Detroit | 7 | 8 | 1 | .469 |
| Miami | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 |
| St. Louis | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 |
| Cleveland | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 |
| Washington | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 |
| Philadelphia | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 |
| Dallas | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 |
| NY Giants | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 |
| Houston | 6 | 9 | 1 | .406 |
| Oakland | 6 | 10 | 0 | .375 |
| Jacksonville | 6 | 10 | 0 | .375 |
| San Francisco | 5 | 10 | 1 | .344 |
| Tennessee | 5 | 10 | 1 | .344 |
| Tampa Bay | 4 | 12 | 0 | .250 |
| New Orleans | 3 | 12 | 1 | .219 |
| Chicago | 3 | 13 | 0 | .188 |
If you take those projections and then plug them into the 2015 schedule, we get an idea of which teams are playing the easy schedules.
And no surprise, the four of the five easiest schedules project to belong to the NFC South teams – Falcons, Bucs, Saints and Panthers. Washington joins them in the top 5.
Hardest schedules project to go to the Steelers, Browns and the two Bay Area teams (the Raiders and 49ers).
—Ian Allan