Every NFL team has played three games now. We have an idea of which teams are really good (Patriots, Broncos, Packers), and which teams are really bad (Bears, Saints). So we can now take another look at the NFL schedule and get an idea of which teams will benefit or be hurt by scheduling.
For starters, there needs to be some agreement on the relative strengths of the teams. In my eyes, I would put them in the following order. For this, the wins and losses aren’t their current or expected records, but I think they would fare over 16 games if they were to start a new 16-game schedule today (with every team playing an identical, average schedule).
I’ve got them this way …
| IAN'S WEEK 4 POWER RANKINGS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | T |
| New England | 14 | 2 | 0 |
| Denver | 13 | 3 | 0 |
| Green Bay | 13 | 3 | 0 |
| Seattle | 12 | 4 | 0 |
| Arizona | 11 | 4 | 1 |
| Cincinnati | 11 | 5 | 0 |
| Buffalo | 9 | 6 | 1 |
| San Diego | 9 | 7 | 0 |
| Kansas City | 9 | 7 | 0 |
| Carolina | 9 | 7 | 0 |
| Minnesota | 9 | 7 | 0 |
| Atlanta | 9 | 7 | 0 |
| Indianapolis | 8 | 7 | 1 |
| Pittsburgh | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Dallas | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| NY Jets | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Philadelphia | 7 | 8 | 1 |
| NY Giants | 7 | 8 | 1 |
| Baltimore | 7 | 9 | 0 |
| Oakland | 7 | 9 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 7 | 9 | 0 |
| Washington | 6 | 9 | 1 |
| Detroit | 6 | 9 | 1 |
| Miami | 6 | 9 | 1 |
| Houston | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| Jacksonville | 5 | 10 | 1 |
| San Francisco | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Cleveland | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| St. Louis | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Tampa Bay | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| New Orleans | 4 | 11 | 1 |
| Chicago | 3 | 13 | 0 |
You no doubt will disagree by a game or two on some of the rankings, but whatever. It’s a decent enough starting point (isn’t it?). And we can then move ahead and plug those projected wins and losses into the remaining schedule.
Following that process, the Falcons, Bucs, Jaguars and Saints project to play the easiest remaining schedules. Atlanta is No. 1 by far. When comparing it against Carolina (the other 3-0 team in the NFC South), the big difference is where they placed last year. The Panthers won the division last year, so they play the Seahawks and Packers. The Falcons get the 49ers and Vikings with those same slots.
The Raiders, Browns, Steelers and Dolphins project to play the hardest remaining schedules.
According to my power rankings, remaining Strength of Schedule works out this way …
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 4-17) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | T | Pct |
| Atlanta | 82 | 121 | 5 | .406 |
| Tampa Bay | 89 | 113 | 6 | .442 |
| Jacksonville | 93 | 111 | 4 | .457 |
| New Orleans | 92 | 110 | 6 | .457 |
| Indianapolis | 97 | 107 | 4 | .476 |
| Tennessee | 96 | 106 | 6 | .476 |
| NY Giants | 97 | 105 | 6 | .481 |
| Baltimore | 99 | 106 | 3 | .483 |
| Washington | 98 | 105 | 5 | .483 |
| Green Bay | 100 | 105 | 3 | .488 |
| Seattle | 100 | 105 | 3 | .488 |
| Detroit | 101 | 104 | 3 | .493 |
| Carolina | 100 | 103 | 5 | .493 |
| New England | 99 | 102 | 7 | .493 |
| Philadelphia | 98 | 101 | 9 | .493 |
| Chicago | 102 | 103 | 3 | .498 |
| Cincinnati | 103 | 103 | 2 | .500 |
| Kansas City | 103 | 103 | 2 | .500 |
| St. Louis | 103 | 102 | 3 | .502 |
| Buffalo | 102 | 101 | 5 | .502 |
| Houston | 101 | 100 | 7 | .502 |
| Arizona | 105 | 101 | 2 | .510 |
| San Diego | 105 | 101 | 2 | .510 |
| San Francisco | 106 | 99 | 3 | .517 |
| NY Jets | 104 | 97 | 7 | .517 |
| Dallas | 106 | 95 | 7 | .526 |
| Denver | 112 | 95 | 1 | .541 |
| Minnesota | 111 | 94 | 3 | .541 |
| Miami | 112 | 92 | 4 | .548 |
| Pittsburgh | 115 | 91 | 2 | .558 |
| Cleveland | 116 | 91 | 1 | .560 |
| Oakland | 116 | 91 | 1 | .560 |
—Ian Allan