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Revised strength of schedule

Easy schedule is key to Atlanta's playoff push

Let me take a moment to check in with some Strength of Schedule ideas. Namely, which teams have benefitted from playing the easiest schedules so far, and which will play the hardest schedules the rest of the way.

At the end of Week 4, the existing win-loss data looks a little corrupted. The Ravens, for example, are 1-3, but they’re much better than that. The Falcons, meanwhile, are 4-0, but they’re not that good. So I will start by setting baselines for each team. That is, I will start by projecting what I think the records for each team would be if the season were to start today, with each team playing a 16-game schedule of average difficulty.

So these are essentially power rankings, and as always, let me know if you see a team that you believe is more than a half game off.

IAN'S WEEK 4 POWER RANKINGS
TeamWLTPct
New England1420.875
Denver1330.813
Green Bay1231.781
Seattle1141.719
Cincinnati1150.688
Arizona1060.625
Atlanta1060.625
Minnesota961.594
NY Jets970.563
Carolina970.563
Pittsburgh970.563
Baltimore970.563
Buffalo871.531
San Diego880.500
Kansas City880.500
Dallas880.500
NY Giants880.500
Indianapolis880.500
Tennessee790.438
Washington790.438
St. Louis790.438
Detroit691.406
Cleveland691.406
Philadelphia691.406
Oakland691.406
Jacksonville5101.344
New Orleans5101.344
Houston5110.313
Miami4111.281
Chicago4111.281
San Francisco4120.250
Tampa Bay4120.250

We can now take that data, subjective as it is, and plug it into the 2015 NFL schedule. It indicates that a couple of the teams that have been piling up wins thus far – Carolina and Arizona – have benefitted from playing a lot of bad opponents. A pair of teams with disappointing records, meanwhile (Kansas City and Detroit) have played the hardest schedules.

EASIEST SCHEDULES SO FAR (Weeks 1-4)
TeamWLTPct.
Carolina19432.313
Arizona20422.328
Tennessee18291.385
NY Jets24373.398
Washington25372.406
Tampa Bay26371.414
Atlanta27361.430
Green Bay27352.438
Indianapolis29332.469
Miami29332.469
Dallas29332.469
Seattle29323.477
Cleveland30331.477
New England22242.479
New Orleans31330.484
Houston31330.484
Oakland30322.484
Cincinnati31321.492
Minnesota31321.492
Denver32302.516
NY Giants33301.523
San Diego32293.523
Philadelphia34300.531
Pittsburgh34300.531
Buffalo34291.539
Jacksonville35281.555
St. Louis37261.586
Baltimore39241.617
Chicago39223.633
San Francisco40222.641
Kansas City41221.648
Detroit41212.656

We can also use the same data to look at what’s coming up. That is, set aside the first four weeks and look only at the remaining games. (And with most fantasy leagues not using Week 17, I tossed that one out).

In the next 12 weeks, it appears that the Falcons, Saints and Bucs will play the easiest schedules. That’s the benefit of being in the NFC South. Carolina would also be in that group, but it has already used a lot of those games – Jaguars, Bucs, Texans, Saints.

By far the hardest remaining schedules, meanwhile, belong to the Raiders, Steelers and Browns.

HARDEST REMAINING SCHEDULES (Weeks 5-16)
TeamWLTPct.
Atlanta711023.412
New Orleans75983.435
Tampa Bay78944.455
Baltimore78935.457
Tennessee851016.458
Jacksonville80942.460
NY Giants79934.460
Indianapolis83903.480
Philadelphia83894.483
Buffalo84893.486
New England92973.487
Detroit83867.491
Seattle86882.494
Washington85874.494
San Diego84866.494
Houston86864.500
NY Jets86864.500
Green Bay86855.503
Chicago87854.506
Kansas City86846.506
Minnesota86846.506
St. Louis86846.506
Cincinnati88844.511
Miami90842.517
Arizona90806.528
Carolina92804.534
Dallas92795.537
Denver92795.537
San Francisco93785.543
Cleveland102731.582
Pittsburgh101723.582
Oakland102713.588

—Ian Allan

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