Let me take a moment to check in with some Strength of Schedule ideas. Namely, which teams have benefitted from playing the easiest schedules so far, and which will play the hardest schedules the rest of the way.
At the end of Week 4, the existing win-loss data looks a little corrupted. The Ravens, for example, are 1-3, but they’re much better than that. The Falcons, meanwhile, are 4-0, but they’re not that good. So I will start by setting baselines for each team. That is, I will start by projecting what I think the records for each team would be if the season were to start today, with each team playing a 16-game schedule of average difficulty.
So these are essentially power rankings, and as always, let me know if you see a team that you believe is more than a half game off.
IAN'S WEEK 4 POWER RANKINGS | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
New England | 14 | 2 | 0 | .875 |
Denver | 13 | 3 | 0 | .813 |
Green Bay | 12 | 3 | 1 | .781 |
Seattle | 11 | 4 | 1 | .719 |
Cincinnati | 11 | 5 | 0 | .688 |
Arizona | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 |
Atlanta | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 |
Minnesota | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
NY Jets | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
Carolina | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
Pittsburgh | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
Baltimore | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
Buffalo | 8 | 7 | 1 | .531 |
San Diego | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
Kansas City | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
Dallas | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
NY Giants | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
Indianapolis | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
Tennessee | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 |
Washington | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 |
St. Louis | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 |
Detroit | 6 | 9 | 1 | .406 |
Cleveland | 6 | 9 | 1 | .406 |
Philadelphia | 6 | 9 | 1 | .406 |
Oakland | 6 | 9 | 1 | .406 |
Jacksonville | 5 | 10 | 1 | .344 |
New Orleans | 5 | 10 | 1 | .344 |
Houston | 5 | 11 | 0 | .313 |
Miami | 4 | 11 | 1 | .281 |
Chicago | 4 | 11 | 1 | .281 |
San Francisco | 4 | 12 | 0 | .250 |
Tampa Bay | 4 | 12 | 0 | .250 |
We can now take that data, subjective as it is, and plug it into the 2015 NFL schedule. It indicates that a couple of the teams that have been piling up wins thus far – Carolina and Arizona – have benefitted from playing a lot of bad opponents. A pair of teams with disappointing records, meanwhile (Kansas City and Detroit) have played the hardest schedules.
EASIEST SCHEDULES SO FAR (Weeks 1-4) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct. |
Carolina | 19 | 43 | 2 | .313 |
Arizona | 20 | 42 | 2 | .328 |
Tennessee | 18 | 29 | 1 | .385 |
NY Jets | 24 | 37 | 3 | .398 |
Washington | 25 | 37 | 2 | .406 |
Tampa Bay | 26 | 37 | 1 | .414 |
Atlanta | 27 | 36 | 1 | .430 |
Green Bay | 27 | 35 | 2 | .438 |
Indianapolis | 29 | 33 | 2 | .469 |
Miami | 29 | 33 | 2 | .469 |
Dallas | 29 | 33 | 2 | .469 |
Seattle | 29 | 32 | 3 | .477 |
Cleveland | 30 | 33 | 1 | .477 |
New England | 22 | 24 | 2 | .479 |
New Orleans | 31 | 33 | 0 | .484 |
Houston | 31 | 33 | 0 | .484 |
Oakland | 30 | 32 | 2 | .484 |
Cincinnati | 31 | 32 | 1 | .492 |
Minnesota | 31 | 32 | 1 | .492 |
Denver | 32 | 30 | 2 | .516 |
NY Giants | 33 | 30 | 1 | .523 |
San Diego | 32 | 29 | 3 | .523 |
Philadelphia | 34 | 30 | 0 | .531 |
Pittsburgh | 34 | 30 | 0 | .531 |
Buffalo | 34 | 29 | 1 | .539 |
Jacksonville | 35 | 28 | 1 | .555 |
St. Louis | 37 | 26 | 1 | .586 |
Baltimore | 39 | 24 | 1 | .617 |
Chicago | 39 | 22 | 3 | .633 |
San Francisco | 40 | 22 | 2 | .641 |
Kansas City | 41 | 22 | 1 | .648 |
Detroit | 41 | 21 | 2 | .656 |
We can also use the same data to look at what’s coming up. That is, set aside the first four weeks and look only at the remaining games. (And with most fantasy leagues not using Week 17, I tossed that one out).
In the next 12 weeks, it appears that the Falcons, Saints and Bucs will play the easiest schedules. That’s the benefit of being in the NFC South. Carolina would also be in that group, but it has already used a lot of those games – Jaguars, Bucs, Texans, Saints.
By far the hardest remaining schedules, meanwhile, belong to the Raiders, Steelers and Browns.
HARDEST REMAINING SCHEDULES (Weeks 5-16) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct. |
Atlanta | 71 | 102 | 3 | .412 |
New Orleans | 75 | 98 | 3 | .435 |
Tampa Bay | 78 | 94 | 4 | .455 |
Baltimore | 78 | 93 | 5 | .457 |
Tennessee | 85 | 101 | 6 | .458 |
Jacksonville | 80 | 94 | 2 | .460 |
NY Giants | 79 | 93 | 4 | .460 |
Indianapolis | 83 | 90 | 3 | .480 |
Philadelphia | 83 | 89 | 4 | .483 |
Buffalo | 84 | 89 | 3 | .486 |
New England | 92 | 97 | 3 | .487 |
Detroit | 83 | 86 | 7 | .491 |
Seattle | 86 | 88 | 2 | .494 |
Washington | 85 | 87 | 4 | .494 |
San Diego | 84 | 86 | 6 | .494 |
Houston | 86 | 86 | 4 | .500 |
NY Jets | 86 | 86 | 4 | .500 |
Green Bay | 86 | 85 | 5 | .503 |
Chicago | 87 | 85 | 4 | .506 |
Kansas City | 86 | 84 | 6 | .506 |
Minnesota | 86 | 84 | 6 | .506 |
St. Louis | 86 | 84 | 6 | .506 |
Cincinnati | 88 | 84 | 4 | .511 |
Miami | 90 | 84 | 2 | .517 |
Arizona | 90 | 80 | 6 | .528 |
Carolina | 92 | 80 | 4 | .534 |
Dallas | 92 | 79 | 5 | .537 |
Denver | 92 | 79 | 5 | .537 |
San Francisco | 93 | 78 | 5 | .543 |
Cleveland | 102 | 73 | 1 | .582 |
Pittsburgh | 101 | 72 | 3 | .582 |
Oakland | 102 | 71 | 3 | .588 |
—Ian Allan