For the past few weeks, I’ve taken a look at strength of schedule, basing it how I felt teams would finish in wins and losses. Now that teams have played four-five games each, this time around I’ll use not how I THINK they will play, but how they’ve actually performed thus far. And rather than using wins and losses, I’m going to use points allowed.
So far starters, this is what defenses have done so far (average points per game)
DEFENSES (current) | |
---|---|
Arizona | 18.0 |
Atlanta | 22.4 |
Baltimore | 27.4 |
Buffalo | 21.0 |
Carolina | 17.8 |
Chicago | 28.4 |
Cincinnati | 20.2 |
Cleveland | 26.4 |
Dallas | 26.2 |
Denver | 15.8 |
Detroit | 27.6 |
Green Bay | 16.2 |
Houston | 27.0 |
Indianapolis | 22.6 |
Jacksonville | 29.0 |
Kansas City | 28.6 |
Miami | 25.3 |
Minnesota | 18.3 |
New England | 19.0 |
New Orleans | 28.6 |
NY Giants | 21.8 |
NY Jets | 13.8 |
Oakland | 24.8 |
Philadelphia | 20.6 |
Pittsburgh | 19.0 |
San Diego | 22.0 |
San Francisco | 28.0 |
Seattle | 19.6 |
St. Louis | 22.6 |
Tampa Bay | 29.6 |
Tennessee | 22.8 |
Washington | 20.8 |
And plugging those into the schedule, these are the average points per game allowed by each team’s next 10 opponents. (I’m going with 10 games to get away from the issue of bye weeks and different teams playing different numbers of games).
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (next 10 games) | |
---|---|
Team | Pts |
San Diego | 24.9 |
Atlanta | 24.4 |
St. Louis | 24.3 |
New Orleans | 24.1 |
Baltimore | 23.8 |
NY Jets | 23.8 |
Minnesota | 23.7 |
Tennessee | 23.7 |
Tampa Bay | 23.6 |
Indianapolis | 23.3 |
Detroit | 23.2 |
San Francisco | 23.2 |
Seattle | 23.2 |
Buffalo | 23.0 |
Jacksonville | 23.0 |
Denver | 22.7 |
Philadelphia | 22.7 |
Washington | 22.7 |
Green Bay | 22.6 |
Houston | 22.5 |
Kansas City | 22.4 |
Pittsburgh | 22.4 |
Cincinnati | 22.3 |
Carolina | 22.2 |
Miami | 22.2 |
NY Giants | 22.0 |
Cleveland | 21.9 |
Chicago | 21.9 |
Arizona | 21.8 |
New England | 21.1 |
Dallas | 20.6 |
Oakland | 20.6 |
So, based on how defenses have played thus far, the Chargers, Falcons and Rams project to play the easiest schedules in these upcoming 10-11 weeks.
The Raiders, Cowboys and Patriots project to see the toughest defenses in the same time period.
—Ian Allan