Scheduletron

October 20, 2015

Strength of schedule

Broncos look ripe for a scheduling fall

Let me check in with a look at Strength of Schedule. Which teams have seen the easiest schedules so far? And who’s got a hard schedule coming up? Sifting through the data, the Denver Broncos are the team that attracts my attention.

For this version, I’m going to ignore the real-life factual data and instead use my gut feel opinion of each team. That is, first step is to create a 1 thru 32 “power ranking” of the teams, then plug those numbers into the actual NFL schedule.

So for starters, here’s how I rank the teams from best to worst. The win-loss records here aren’t how I feel they will finish. Instead they reflect how I think they would finish if the season started today and each team played an average, typical schedule.

There’s a little bit of a voodoo math element here, because teams change. Kansas City, for example, used to be a middle-of-the-pack team, but now Jamaal Charles is out for the year and they have no chance of finishing .500. Similarly, the Steelers and Cowboys might both be above-average teams when they’re at full strength, but they’re playing part of the year without their franchise quarterbacks.

But whatever. You’ve got to put them in some kind of order, and I’m going but what I have seen. The Patriots and Bengals seem like the best teams to me. I’ve got the Packers at No. 3. I’m putting Denver down at 4th; love the defense, but they haven’t made any progress at solving their extensive offensive issues.

There’s no clear “worst” team in my eyes. I think there are about a dozen teams down in that lesser group.

IAN'S POWER RANKINGS
Rk	Team	W	L	T	Pct
1.	New England	14	2	0	.875
2.	Cincinnati	13	3	0	.813
3.	Green Bay	12	3	1	.781
4.	Denver	11	4	1	.719
5.	Arizona	11	5	0	.688
6.	Pittsburgh	10	6	0	.625
7.	Carolina	10	6	0	.625
8.	Atlanta	9	6	1	.594
9.	Seattle	9	6	1	.594
10.	NY Jets	9	6	1	.594
11.	Minnesota	9	7	0	.563
12.	Philadelphia	9	7	0	.563
13.	Indianapolis	8	7	1	.531
14.	San Diego	8	7	1	.531
15.	Buffalo	8	8	0	.500
16.	Dallas	8	8	0	.500
17.	NY Giants	8	8	0	.500
18.	St. Louis	7	8	1	.469
19.	Baltimore	6	9	1	.406
20.	Washington	6	9	1	.406
21.	New Orleans	6	9	1	.406
22.	Chicago	6	9	1	.406
23.	Oakland	6	10	0	.375
24.	Cleveland	6	10	0	.375
25.	San Francisco	5	10	1	.344
26.	Detroit	5	10	1	.344
27.	Miami	5	10	1	.344
28.	Kansas City	5	11	0	.313
29.	Houston	5	11	0	.313
30.	Tennessee	5	11	0	.313
31.	Tampa Bay	5	11	0	.313
32.	Jacksonville	4	11	1	.281

As the next step in the process of this thing, let’s look at which teams have played the easiest schedules so far.

By my math, the Panthers, Bucs, Broncos and Titans have played the easiest schedules. Denver is undefeated, but it hasn’t played good teams yet. The Titans came out guns blazing in their opener, but they’ve lost 4 in a row despite playing an easy schedule.

At the other end of this deal, I’ve got the Rams, Kansas City, 49ers, Cowboys and Lions. Then you finally run into some good teams with the Chargers and Seahawks.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, SO FAR (Weeks 1-6)
Team	W	L	T	Pct
Carolina	29	48	3	.381
Tampa Bay	30	48	2	.388
Denver	37	57	2	.396
Tennessee	32	46	2	.413
Miami	32	45	3	.419
Arizona	39	52	5	.432
Houston	41	52	3	.443
Green Bay	40	51	5	.443
NY Jets	34	43	3	.444
Atlanta	42	52	2	.448
Minnesota	34	42	4	.450
Cincinnati	42	51	3	.453
Indianapolis	45	49	2	.479
NY Giants	45	48	3	.484
New England	38	40	2	.488
Cleveland	45	47	4	.490
Jacksonville	47	47	2	.500
Philadelphia	46	46	4	.500
Washington	47	45	4	.510
Chicago	48	45	3	.516
Baltimore	51	43	2	.542
Oakland	42	35	3	.544
New Orleans	52	43	1	.547
Pittsburgh	51	41	4	.552
Buffalo	53	41	2	.563
Seattle	53	39	4	.573
San Diego	55	39	2	.583
Detroit	54	38	4	.583
Dallas	46	32	2	.588
San Francisco	56	38	2	.594
Kansas City	56	37	3	.599
St. Louis	48	29	3	.619

Shifting to the remaining schedule, I see Saints, Chargers and Falcons at the top. Those are the teams that I believe will benefit from playing easy schedules in the remaining 11 weeks.

At the other end of this deal, I see Broncos, Browns, Dolphins, Cardinals and Vikings. I think those teams will be hurt by the quality of their remaining schedule.

Denver, recall, was in the group that so far has seen easy schedules. So to me, that looks like a team that’s ripe to slip by a notch going forward. The Browns have been an offensive surprise, but scheduling will make it tough to keep that run going.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, REMAINING (Weeks 7-17)
Team	W	L	T	Pct
New Orleans	65	90	5	.422
San Diego	65	89	6	.425
Atlanta	67	89	4	.431
Jacksonville	69	85	6	.450
Indianapolis	70	85	5	.453
Tennessee	80	90	6	.472
New England	80	90	6	.472
St. Louis	80	90	6	.472
Buffalo	74	81	5	.478
Kansas City	74	81	5	.478
NY Jets	85	89	2	.489
Cincinnati	77	79	4	.494
Houston	77	78	5	.497
Carolina	85	85	6	.500
Seattle	78	78	4	.500
Detroit	77	77	6	.500
Chicago	77	76	7	.503
Baltimore	78	77	5	.503
Tampa Bay	86	83	7	.509
Philadelphia	80	77	3	.509
Oakland	87	83	6	.511
Dallas	87	83	6	.511
Green Bay	80	76	4	.513
NY Giants	81	75	4	.519
Washington	82	76	2	.519
Pittsburgh	83	73	4	.531
San Francisco	82	71	7	.534
Minnesota	91	77	8	.540
Arizona	85	69	6	.550
Miami	97	75	4	.563
Cleveland	89	67	4	.569
Denver	90	65	5	.578

—Ian Allan

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