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Strength of schedule

Saints, Jets to see defenses allowing plenty of points

Time for my weekly look at strength of schedule. Last week I graded the teams based on wins and losses. This time around, I’m looking instead at the relative strength of defenses – which teams should see the most generous opponents in their upcoming games.

The first step in this kind of process is to agree on how good the defenses are. That is, rather than using existing data, I’m ranking the defenses 1 thru 32, with the number of points I think they would allow in a typical, average game.

And right now I rank the defenses in this order, with the Broncos, Jets and Packers the best, and the Lions, Bears and Bucs the worst.

DEFENSIVE POWER RATINGS
RkTeamPts
1.Denver16.6
2.NY Jets17.0
3.Green Bay18.2
4.Carolina18.7
5.Seattle19.3
6.St. Louis19.5
7.Minnesota19.6
8.New England19.8
9.Arizona19.9
10.Philadelphia20.0
11.Pittsburgh20.4
12.Cincinnati20.8
13.Dallas21.8
14.Buffalo22.8
15.Atlanta23.0
16.Miami23.4
17.Washington23.7
18.Oakland23.9
19.Kansas City24.0
20.NY Giants24.8
21.Tennessee25.3
22.Baltimore25.5
23.San Diego25.6
24.San Francisco26.0
25.Cleveland26.4
26.Indianapolis26.6
27.New Orleans27.0
28.Jacksonville27.2
29.Houston27.5
30.Tampa Bay28.0
31.Chicago28.1
32.Detroit28.3

Feel free to chime in where you think I’m wrong.

After that step, we can then take those points and plug them into each team’s schedule. And following that process, I get the average score for each offense in its next eight games. That is, Weeks 8-15 for teams that have already had their bye, and Weeks 8-16 for teams that have had their bye. That gives each team eight games and makes the math easier. For all teams, the Week 17 games get left out (which makes sense, with those not being included in most fantasy leagues).

But whatever. In a general sense, it looks like the Saints, Jets and Rams will face the worst defenses in their upcoming games.

The Cowboys, Bears, Raiders and Cardinals should see the hardest defenses coming up.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (next 8 games)
RkTeamPoints
1.New Orleans25.4
2.NY Jets24.6
3.St. Louis24.5
4.Jacksonville24.4
5.Kansas City24.3
6.Atlanta24.1
7.San Diego24.1
8.Carolina23.8
9.Tennessee23.5
10.Philadelphia23.5
11.Denver23.3
12.Cincinnati23.3
13.Baltimore23.2
14.Tampa Bay23.2
15.Green Bay23.2
16.San Francisco23.2
17.Indianapolis23.1
18.Houston23.1
19.New England23.0
20.Washington22.9
21.Minnesota22.5
22.Pittsburgh22.5
23.Seattle22.4
24.Miami22.2
25.Buffalo22.2
26.NY Giants22.2
27.Detroit22.1
28.Cleveland22.1
29.Arizona21.2
30.Oakland21.2
31.Chicago21.1
32.Dallas21.0

—Ian Allan

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