Talented and/or highly drafted players often get the benefit of the doubt in the majors. That “benefit of the doubt” in real terms means regular playing time, and opportunities for fantasy owners to take a flyer on draft day. The following list includes several players who are approaching what could be a make-or-break opportunity during the 2016 season.
Chris Carter, 1B, Brewers
Stat-heads were impressed by the adjustments Carter made in the second half of 2015, allowing him to hit .240-9-23 in only 104 at-bats for Houston. That was after hitting .185 before the break. The streaky Carter has at least 24 homers in each of the last three seasons, but he’s failed to hit right-handed pitching consistently. Milwaukee could be his final shot as a regular if he doesn’t show more consistency.
Avisail Garcia, OF, White Sox
Garcia was the topic of offseason trade rumors, even leading into spring training until Adam LaRoche retired. Now he’s slated to be the White Sox DH. His production from last season, with a .675 OPS, simply won’t cut it at that spot, and Garcia’s defense isn’t good enough to make up for it if he does get time in the field. While he was considered a good prospect in the Tigers organization, Garcia was more of a scouting darling than a truly productive player, never hitting more than 14 homers in a season as a pro. Even in his age 25 season, this could be Garcia’s last chance as a regular.
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Billy Hamilton, OF, Reds
Hamilton was demoted to the bottom of the batting order last season because he couldn’t hit, and that’s carried over into this season. The Reds said they’d put him at the bottom of the order again after hitting below .200 this spring, and now he has prospect Jose Peraza on his tail at Triple-A. Few will debate that Hamilton isn’t the fastest player in the game and a major asset defensively, but the Reds simply can’t stay patient again if Hamilton is hitting like he did last season (.226/.274/.289). The rebuilding Reds could be looking toward their next center fielder of the future (Peraza) if Hamilton isn’t hitting by May.
Rich Hill, SP, A’s
Hill is a major X-factor in drafts this year, reemerging in the Independent Leagues and Boston eight years after he was previously productive as a fantasy starter. The velocity, nasty curveball and strikeout rate were there. The issue for Hill has always been his control, and even that looked spectacular with only five walks in 29 innings during his four starts. Oakland risked just a one-year contract during the offseason, and desperately need Hill to perform in order to have a chance in the AL West. The spring results have been horrendous, with a 15.26 ERA and 12 walks in 7.2 innings. It’s too early to write him off, but a few turns in the rotation at that level could force him out of the bigs for good.
Jon Jay, OF, Padres
A productive player for the Cardinals over the years, Jay couldn’t adequately recover from wrist surgery last year and struggled when he was on the field. Prior to last season, Jay was a .295 career hitter and worthy of at least a fill-in role in most fantasy leagues. The Padres have plenty of opportunities to give Jay this season, and his .339-5-12 line through 59 at-bats this spring suggests his wrist could be healthy. He looks like a potentially profitable stash in NL-only leagues, especially as a leadoff man.
Matt Moore, SP, Rays
Moore was once considered a game-changing prospect, but his velocity hasn’t been the same just before or following his Tommy John surgery. He really struggled in 12 starts last season, with a 5.43 ERA and 6.6 K/9, but did make some strides late in the year with a 2.97 ERA in September. Which version of Moore are we going to see this year? He’s earned the No. 4 starter role with a 1.74 ERA in three starts, so there’s reason to hope we’ll at least see some rebound from him. The early-career dominant version seems unlikely without a return of his velocity. The Rays have significant Triple-A pitching depth, and can only wait for so long if Moore struggles out of the gate.
Tanner Roark, SP, Nationals
Roark was banished to the bullpen last year despite posting a 2.85 ERA as a starter in 2014. He returns as the Nationals fourth starter, but last year’s struggles don’t make him a safe play. Roark had trouble keeping the ball in the park as a swingman, and he’s never been able to consistently miss bats. Despite an excellent spring, Roark’s results will be worth watching given his experience in relief and the terrific talent Washington has in the upper minors, including Lucas Giolito, A.J. Cole, and Austin Voth.
