Forecasting pitcher performance is a remarkably difficult task. In addition to the fact that pitchers can get hurt, can add a pitch or two, can refine their pitch sequencing or arsenal, or lose velocity, many other variables are not entirely under their control from season to season. A few extra deep fly balls can get caught on the warning track in one season and go out of the park in a subsequent season. A few defensive plays can be made or not made. A few strikes can get called balls and vice versa. We try to account for those factors when making a pitcher's forecast. You weigh their most recent performance most heavily but also factor in unstable elements by using regression to the mean.
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The purpose of this article is to try and identify a few pitchers whose 2016 performance may deviate significantly from their 2015 performance. Maybe you can find a hidden bargain or a guy you don't want to overbid on. Let's start with a pitcher who had an ugly 2015 but still go paid handsomely, essentially based on the fact that he's expected to be a lot better going forward: 31-year-old Jeff Samardzija.
| Jeff Samardzija | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 actual | 214 | 228 | 122 | 118 | 29 | 49 | 163 | 4.96 |
| 2016 Proj | 207 | 202 | 95 | 88 | 24 | 53 | 170 | 4.14 |
Samardzija had an ugly season for the White Sox last year, but CAIRO thinks he'll be a bit better. CAIRO is the forecasting system that generates the projections used in the Fantasy Index Cheat Sheet Update newsletters.) Moving away from US Cellular field -- a ballpark which tends to increase home runs -- will help. In addition to that, leaving the AL for the NL -- leaving DH's and pitching instead to pitchers -- should help him pick up strikeouts and allow fewer hits. Samardzija is not projected to be a world-beater, but in a deeper league he can be a solid starter with some upside if you think the projection is a little pessimistic.
Staying in San Francisco, we have another 31-year-old right-hander coming of a few rough seasons, mostly due to injury. Matt Cain was an All-Star caliber pitcher from 2009-2012, throwing 882 innings with an ERA of 2.93 until he fell victim to elbow surgery.
| Matt Cain | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 actual | 60 | 71 | 39 | 39 | 12 | 20 | 41 | 5.79 |
| 2016 Proj | 105 | 104 | 56 | 53 | 15 | 33 | 77 | 4.79 |
Cain's projection doesn't look all that impressive on its face, but CAIRO doesn't really know or care that he's been fighting injuries. He appears healthier and if he's regained some of his velocity he may be able to outpitch that projection.
If you're looking for a reliever who might be able to help you out, 32-year-old Jumbo Diaz may be worth a flier.
| Jumbo Diaz | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 actual | 60 | 58 | 29 | 28 | 9 | 18 | 70 | 4.18 |
| 2016 Proj | 58 | 51 | 23 | 23 | 6 | 20 | 55 | 3.62 |
Diaz had a good strikeout rate last year, but allowed a few too many homers and had some bad luck on the balls in play hit against him (.318 vs a league average of around .300). A bit better luck in those areas and he can be better. Although J.J. Hoover is penciled as the Reds closer, Diaz and his 97-99 mph fastball may be wind up picking up a few saves if things change.
On the other side of the coin, there are some pitchers who were reasonably effective in 2015 but whom CAIRO is concerned about in 2016.
Hector Santiago, a 28-year-old left-hander, put up a respectable season in 2015 despite allowing a league-high 29 home runs.
| Hector Santiago | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 actual | 180 | 156 | 80 | 72 | 29 | 71 | 162 | 3.59 |
| 2016 Proj | 175 | 161 | 91 | 81 | 24 | 72 | 156 | 4.69 |
Even though CAIRO expects Santiago to allow fewer homers in 2016, it's not expecting him to be as lucky in other areas as he was in 2015. Santiago held opposing hitters to a .197 average with runners in scoring position compared to .237 in other situations. In addition to that, he allowed 22 of his 29 home runs in 475 plate appearances with the bases empty and only seven in 301 plate appearances with runners on base. Part of that could be approach, and perhaps it's more sustainable than CAIRO thinks. That projection looks a little pessimistic to me given Santiago's track record so far, but you may want to be careful with him.
Sticking with 32-year-old lefties in Los Angeles, we have Scott Kazmir. Kazmir had a pretty ugly spring training and his velocity was down.
| Scott Kazmir | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 actual | 183 | 162 | 77 | 63 | 20 | 59 | 155 | 3.10 |
| 2016 Proj | 168 | 152 | 74 | 65 | 19 | 50 | 148 | 3.95 |
When you factor in the league switch, CAIRO expects a pretty major drop off for Kazmir. Be careful.
Zack Greinke had a monster 2015, and it's not reasonable to expect a repeat performance. Still, the 32-year-old should be one of the better pitchers in baseball.
| Zack Greinke | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 actual | 222 | 148 | 43 | 41 | 14 | 40 | 200 | 1.66 |
| 2016 Proj | 201 | 164 | 69 | 64 | 16 | 42 | 171 | 3.06 |
A pitcher can't put up an ERA of 1.66 unless an awful lot goes right. CAIRO doesn't think Greinke will have the same good fortune again in 2016. Greinke stranded 86.5 percent of the batters that reached against him in 2015, compared to a career strand rate of 74.9 percent. In addition to that, he allowed home runs on only 7.3 percent of the fly balls he allowed in 2015, compared to a 9.1 percent rate in his career.
While not in Greinke's class, Marco Estrada had a very good season for Toronto in 2015. CAIRO doesn't expect the same in 2016.
| Marco Estrada | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 actual | 181 | 134 | 67 | 63 | 24 | 55 | 131 | 3.13 |
| 2016 Proj | 167 | 139 | 84 | 78 | 26 | 49 | 126 | 4.50 |
The 33-year-old Estrada's 2015 was fueled by .216 BABIP against compared to his career mark of .261, and that's just not repeatable. He may still be able to get some wins for a strong offensive team, but he's not likely to help in other areas.
Let's end this with a look at 22-year-old Luis Severino, who will be in the Yankees' rotation in 2016.
| Luis Severino | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 actual | 62 | 53 | 21 | 20 | 9 | 22 | 56 | 2.89 |
| 2016 Proj | 146 | 141 | 66 | 61 | 11 | 48 | 132 | 4.05 |
That 2.89 ERA is certainly impressive. but Severino's Fielding Independent Pitching (a statistic that normalizes BABIP against and is set to the same scale as ERA) was a less-impressive 4.37. Nobody denies that Severino has talent, but he may not be ready to slide into the upper echelon of starters yet.
There will certainly be pitchers both from this list (and those not mentioned) who are far better or worse than what they are forecast to be this year. The trick when trying to get an edge in a fantasy draft is trying to identify them. Hopefully this list can help with that.
-Sherif Geleil
Sherif Geleil's CAIRO projection system is the foundation upon which the Fantasy Index projections and rankings are built. We sometimes change CAIRO's playing time assessments to match our own expectations, and on rare occasions we override its projections for some statistics (saves, primarily).
