Amari Cooper and Tyler Lockett had big rookie seasons. Should we now believe that they will build on that success (becoming fantasy superstars)? Or are they more likely to fall victim to the “regression to the mean” dynamic, probably declining out of the difficulty of matching good numbers. Ian Allan explores.
For this one, I pulled up the list of all rookie wide receivers (I think) who scored at least 100 fantasy points in their first year. That’s using the fantasy scoring system of 6 points for touchdowns and 1 point for every 10 yards. And I tossed out everything that happened before 2000. Guys like Cris Carter, Andre Rison and Sterling Sharpe were great in their day, but the game has changed so much that my hunch is it’s best just to forget about the ‘80s and ‘90s now.
Anyway, 43 wide receivers meet the definition. And that group, believe it or not, actually scored 18 fewer touchdowns in their second year. Yards were up by 20 per season per man, on average, but overall the second-year numbers were actually just a nano-stat worse.
To make it a more sporting comparison, however, let’s toss out Kelvin Benjamin. With him, everyone knew he was out for the year long before more fantasy drafts had commenced. So let’s remove that pollutant.
Of the remaining 42 yards, their stats were up by 3 percent in Year No. 2. Receiving yards increased by an average of 46 per many, catches were up by 5, and they scored slightly fewer touchdowns.
Of the 42 receivers, 26 posted better numbers. Only 16 posted worse numbers.
Here are all 45 (including Cooper and Lockett). I’ve got them in order of how they performed as rookies. But the stats you see aren’t rookie numbers but second-year production (catches, receiving yards and total touchdowns – including runs and returns). Then you see fantasy points, and finally a percentage figure, which compares the fantasy number to how the player performed in his first year.
I’m not trying to also squeeze the rookie numbers in there. Otherwise there would be too many columns, too many numbers, and everyone would get mad at me. And I don’t know if it would fit.
If a player declined in his second year, his name is in bold. Noticed that after Beckham, the next six best all declined in their second year. (The Bucs are very aware of this; they have three of those underachievers – Mike Evans, Mike Williams and Michael Clayton.)
| WIDE RECEIVERS WITH 100 POINTS AS ROOKIES (the next year) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rec | Yards | TD | Points | Pct |
| 2015 | Odell Beckham Jr., NYG | 96 | 1450 | 13 | 223.0 | 10% |
| 2004 | Anquan Boldin , Ariz. | 56 | 623 | 1 | 68.3 | -63% |
| 2015 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 74 | 1206 | 3 | 138.6 | -22% |
| 2011 | Mike Williams, T.B. | 65 | 771 | 3 | 95.1 | -41% |
| 2005 | Michael Clayton, T.B. | 32 | 372 | 0 | 37.2 | -77% |
| 2015 | Kelvin Benjamin, Car. | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -100% |
| 2014 | Keenan Allen, S.D. | 77 | 783 | 4 | 102.3 | -33% |
| 2007 | Marques Colston, N.O. | 98 | 1202 | 11 | 186.2 | 23% |
| 2012 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 97 | 1350 | 11 | 201.0 | 36% |
| 2012 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 79 | 1198 | 10 | 179.8 | 25% |
| 2016 | • AMARI COOPER, Oak. | ? | ? | ? | ? | |
| 2005 | Lee Evans, Buff. | 48 | 743 | 7 | 116.3 | -16% |
| 2015 | Jordan Matthews, Phil. | 85 | 997 | 8 | 147.7 | 9% |
| 2015 | Sammy Watkins, Buff. | 60 | 1047 | 9 | 158.7 | 18% |
| 2002 | Chris Chambers, Mia. | 52 | 734 | 3 | 91.4 | -30% |
| 2005 | Roy Williams, Det. | 45 | 687 | 8 | 116.7 | -10% |
| 2008 | Dwayne Bowe, K.C. | 86 | 1022 | 7 | 144.2 | 11% |
| 2013 | T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 82 | 1083 | 5 | 138.3 | 8% |
| 2009 | Eddie Royal, Den. | 37 | 345 | 2 | 46.5 | -64% |
| 2010 | Percy Harvin , Minn. | 71 | 868 | 7 | 128.8 | 1% |
| 2012 | Torrey Smith, Balt. | 49 | 855 | 8 | 133.5 | 6% |
| 2005 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 103 | 1409 | 10 | 200.9 | 59% |
| 2004 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 79 | 1142 | 6 | 150.2 | 24% |
| 2013 | Justin Blackmon, Jac. | 29 | 415 | 1 | 47.5 | -59% |
| 2009 | DeSean Jackson, Phil. | 62 | 1156 | 12 | 187.6 | 63% |
| 2010 | Hakeem Nicks , NYG | 79 | 1052 | 11 | 171.2 | 49% |
| 2016 | • TYLER LOCKETT, Sea. | ? | ? | ? | ? | |
| 2010 | Mike Wallace , Pitt. | 60 | 1257 | 10 | 185.7 | 66% |
| 2013 | Josh Gordon, Clev. | 87 | 1646 | 9 | 218.6 | 98% |
| 2010 | Austin Collie, Ind. | 58 | 649 | 8 | 112.9 | 3% |
| 2003 | Antonio Bryant, Dall. | 39 | 550 | 2 | 67.0 | -39% |
| 2003 | Donte Stallworth, N.O. | 25 | 485 | 3 | 66.5 | -38% |
| 2001 | Darrell Jackson, Sea. | 70 | 1081 | 8 | 156.1 | 45% |
| 2015 | Jarvis Landry, Mia. | 110 | 1157 | 5 | 145.7 | 38% |
| 2008 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 78 | 1331 | 12 | 205.1 | 94% |
| 2005 | Keary Colbert, Car. | 25 | 282 | 2 | 40.2 | -62% |
| 2011 | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 63 | 928 | 9 | 146.8 | 41% |
| 2015 | Allen Hurns, Jac. | 64 | 1031 | 10 | 163.1 | 57% |
| 2014 | Terrance Williams, Dall. | 37 | 621 | 8 | 110.1 | 6% |
| 2015 | Martavis Bryant, Pitt. | 50 | 765 | 6 | 112.5 | 9% |
| 2012 | Doug Baldwin, Sea. | 29 | 366 | 3 | 54.6 | -47% |
| 2010 | Jeremy Maclin , Phil. | 70 | 964 | 10 | 156.4 | 54% |
| 2001 | Peter Warrick, Cin. | 70 | 667 | 1 | 72.7 | -28% |
| 2014 | Cordarrelle Patterson, Minn. | 33 | 384 | 2 | 50.4 | -50% |
| 2007 | Santonio Holmes, Pitt. | 52 | 942 | 8 | 142.2 | 42% |
—Ian Allan