We’ll find out soon enough where these players will be chosen. At wide receiver, Laquon Treadwell SEEMS to be the No. 1 guy, but I’m not confident he’ll be the first receiver selected. He was awfully slow at his pro day, running a 4.65, and that makes him a high-risk choice in the first half of the first round, I think.
Speed isn’t everything, of course. Jerry Rice, Michael Irvin and Cris Carter weren’t burners when they were drafted in the ‘80s. Anquan Boldin is remarkably slow but has been great for a lot of years. And Treadwell was productive at Mississippi, catching 82 passes for 1,153 yards and 11 TDs last year.
But there is some value in athleticism. When you’re slow, that makes it harder to get open and stay open. Everything becomes a contested catch, and defenders can get in your face and crowd you. There’s no over-the-top, big-play dimension.
There are lots of slow receivers, and very few of them turn into Michael Irvin or Cris Carter.
So I got out the list of all wide receivers selected in the first round in about the last 20 years. I pulled out all the slow guys – guys who ran slower than 4.5. That is an exercise in itself. Some guys don’t run. Some times come from the slow turf at Indianapolis, while some guys run on a fast rubber track. So it gets messy. But with all of the below-listed guys, we’re talking about players where there were questions about their speed – doubts about whether they were fast enough.
Turns out 28 guys made the list, and we can no go back and count up the hits and misses.
I put a subjective grade on each player, which can get complicated. I decided to go with a time machine approach. You travel back in time and put the team back on the clock. They must pick again. In hindsight, is there any way they would ever select the same player? Keyshawn Johnson, for example, had a few good years, but he was a No. 1 pick overall. No way would the Jets ever have selected him with a top-10 pick.
Career-wise, Hakeem Nicks has had a similar career to Keyshawn, but he was taken late in the first round, so he gets a “Yes” – a successful draft choice.
Similarly, I put a “no” on Michael Crabtree and a “yes” on Dwayne Bowe. They’d had similar careers – some success – but look at where they were selected. Crabtree has never played like a top-10 pick. He’s more of a second- or third-round guy. But the same kind of numbers on Bowe (taken in the last 10 picks of the first round) looks more palatable.
Hardest players to grade where Kenny Britt and Justin Blackmon. Britt has never had a big season, but he’s shown potential at times and has been derailed more by injuries and off-field incidents. In light of this being a speed-based study and with him being a 30th pick, he looks like a reasonable draft choice. Blackmon hasn’t wowed me when he’s been out there, but there were a few big games mixed in before the drug suspensions kicked in.
Kelvin Benjamin and Mike Evans are early in their careers, but they played really well as rookies. I’m calling them hits.
Totaling it up, I get nine hits and 17 misses, plus Blackmon and Britt.
I don’t want to get too serious with wide receiver rankings until we see where they land. Right now, however, my leaning is that Treadwell won’t be the best of the rookie receivers – not this year and not ever. I haven’t looked closely at these guys yet, but I like what I see from Corey Coleman. With his ability to catch the ball and instantly make defenders miss, he reminds me of Steve Smith and Antonio Brown – could have that kind of career.
If I were in a dynasty fantasy draft right now, not knowing where these receivers will land, I would select Coleman before Treadwell.
| SLOW RECEIVERS: Worth the gamble? | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pick | Do over? |
| 1995 | J.J. Stokes, S.F. | 10 | No |
| 1996 | Keyshawn Johnson, NYJ | 1 | No |
| 1996 | Eric Moulds, Buff. | 24 | Yes |
| 1997 | Ike Hilliard, NYG | 7 | No |
| 1999 | Troy Edwards, Pitt. | 13 | No |
| 2000 | Sylvester Morris, K.C. | 21 | No |
| 2000 | Travis Taylor, Balt. | 10 | No |
| 2000 | Peter Warrick, Cin. | 4 | No |
| 2000 | Plaxico Burress, Pitt. | 8 | Yes |
| 2001 | Rod Gardner, Wash. | 15 | No |
| 2001 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 30 | Yes |
| 2003 | Bryant Johnson, Ariz. | 17 | No |
| 2004 | Michael Clayton, T.B. | 15 | No |
| 2004 | Michael Jenkins, Atl. | 29 | No |
| 2004 | Reggie Williams, Jac. | 9 | No |
| 2004 | Rashaun Woods, S.F. | 31 | No |
| 2004 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 3 | Yes |
| 2005 | Mike Williams, Det. | 10 | No |
| 2005 | Mark Clayton, Balt. | 22 | No |
| 2007 | Dwayne Bowe, K.C. | 23 | Yes |
| 2009 | Michael Crabtree , S.F. | 10 | No |
| 2009 | Kenny Britt , Tenn. | 30 | Probably |
| 2009 | Hakeem Nicks , NYG | 29 | Yes |
| 2011 | Jon Baldwin, K.C. | 26 | No |
| 2012 | Justin Blackmon, Jac. | 5 | Susp. |
| 2013 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 27 | Yes |
| 2014 | Kelvin Benjamin, Car. | 28 | Yes |
| 2014 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 7 | Yes |
—Ian Allan