Melvin Gordon was a major disappointment as a rookie, by his own admission. He also had knee surgery in January, which we now know was a significant operation. Will he better in his second season?
This story in the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that it was a microfracture surgery, a bigger issue than say a simple cleanup operation. The recovery timetable is 4-6 month. As Myles Jack's fall out of the first round of the draft makes clear, teams get scared by microfracture surgery.
But as the article makes clear, not all microfracture surgeries are the same, and there are precedents for backs coming back just fine from it; Reggie Bush after the 2008 season, for example. Gordon expects to be 100 percent for training camp.
The recent history of first-round running backs gives Gordon solid odds of being better in Year 2. Since 2000, 33 other rookie first-rounders rushed for at least 250 yards. Of those backs, nearly 60 percent (19) came back and rushed for more yards in their second season, while three additional backs came within 10 percent of their rookie rushing totals. About two out of three, then, were as good or better in Year 2 as in Year 1.
The 250-yard milestone was set to eliminate backs who played little if at all as a rookies; e.g., Willis McGahee. It wasn't difficult for those backs to improve in Year 2.
Gordon needs to be healthy, of course, and get better blocking, but there's reason to think he'll be a decent fantasy back in 2016.
First-round running backs since 2000 who rushed for 250-plus in their rookie seasons, and their second-year rushing totals and percent change, are shown below.
| FIRST-ROUND RBS, YEAR 1 TO YEAR 2, 2000-PRESENT | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pick | Playe | Run (1) | Run (2) | % Change |
| 2000 | 19 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 313 | 1318 | 421% |
| 2008 | 22 | Felix Jones, Dall. | 266 | 685 | 258% |
| 2005 | 4 | Cedric Benson, Chi. | 272 | 647 | 238% |
| 2010 | 9 | C.J. Spiller, Buff. | 283 | 561 | 198% |
| 2001 | 27 | Michael Bennett, Minn. | 682 | 1296 | 190% |
| 2009 | 27 | Donald Brown , Ind. | 281 | 497 | 177% |
| 2008 | 24 | Chris Johnson, Tenn. | 1228 | 2006 | 163% |
| 2010 | 12 | Ryan Mathews, S.D. | 678 | 1091 | 161% |
| 2004 | 24 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 673 | 1046 | 155% |
| 2002 | 18 | T.J. Duckett, Atl. | 507 | 779 | 154% |
| 2006 | 27 | DeAngelo Williams, Car. | 501 | 717 | 143% |
| 2001 | 5 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1236 | 1683 | 136% |
| 2008 | 13 | Jonathan Stewart, Car. | 836 | 1133 | 136% |
| 2007 | 7 | Adrian Peterson, Minn. | 1341 | 1760 | 131% |
| 2011 | 28 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 474 | 602 | 127% |
| 2006 | 21 | Laurence Maroney, N.E. | 745 | 835 | 112% |
| 2005 | 2 | Ronnie Brown, Mia. | 907 | 1008 | 111% |
| 2006 | 2 | Reggie Bush, N.O. | 565 | 581 | 103% |
| 2000 | 7 | Thomas Jones, Ariz. | 373 | 380 | 102% |
| 2006 | 30 | Joseph Addai, Ind. | 1081 | 1072 | 99% |
| 2007 | 12 | Marshawn Lynch, Buff. | 1115 | 1036 | 93% |
| 2000 | 11 | Ron Dayne, NYG | 770 | 690 | 90% |
| 2009 | 12 | Knowshon Moreno, Den. | 947 | 779 | 82% |
| 2008 | 4 | Darren McFadden, Oak. | 499 | 357 | 72% |
| 2010 | 30 | Jahvid Best, Det. | 555 | 390 | 70% |
| 2005 | 5 | Cadillac Williams, T.B. | 1178 | 798 | 68% |
| 2002 | 16 | William Green, Clev. | 887 | 559 | 63% |
| 2004 | 30 | Kevin Jones, Det. | 1133 | 664 | 59% |
| 2009 | 31 | Beanie Wells , Ariz. | 793 | 397 | 50% |
| 2012 | 3 | Trent Richardson, Clev. | 950 | 458 | 48% |
| 2012 | 32 | David Wilson, NYG | 358 | 146 | 41% |
| 2012 | 31 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 1454 | 456 | 31% |
| 2000 | 5 | Jamal Lewis, Balt. | 1364 | 0 | 0% |
| 2015 | 10 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | 1106 | ? | ? |
| 2015 | 15 | Melvin Gordon, S.D. | 641 | ? | ? |
--Andy Richardson