Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: trading away Brock Bowers in a tight end premium league. Rookies who will hit the ground running. Weighing running backs against receivers in the early rounds. Valuing backup running backs. And more.
Question 1
i did it. Traded Bowers for Jefferson. Hear me out. I also have McBride. Same bye week 8. TE bonus full PPR for TE, half for WR, zero for RB. I gave potentially my league"s MVP, but given the situation, did it make sense? 8 keepers, including N Collins and D Henry. I say, play for today. Is the loss in value cool?
John Macho (Elko New Mrkt, MN)
The Macho Man! Does your league have a flex? According to my numbers, Bowers, with the tight end premium turbo boost, will outscore Jefferson by about a point and half per week. We were playing around the numbers a week or so ago, and it looked like Bowers and McBride in that format were the two best non-Chase players on the board. What’s done is done, I suppose. We’ll see how it plays out. The Raiders have a new offensive coordinator and a new offense, so perhaps they won’t be throwing to Bowers as much. But Geno is better than what they were trotting out last year. I saw Bowers pull down a real impressive ball downfield in his brief preseason appearance.
Question 2
What’s your general draft strategy positional wise? Based on aggregate ranking suggests I start with the likes of Barkley, Jacobs, then Bucky/C. Brown. Then go with Burrow and try with Sutton as WR1. Is RB heavy always the best go to if early pick as seems like WR always has depth and depth and easier to hit upside.
Mitchell Ross (Westport, CT)
I’m a supply and demand guy. For this year, it seems like the talent runs out first at running back. With the wide receivers, it’s a lot deeper, with serviceable options available in the third-sixth rounds. With quarterbacks, you’re looking at four or five really good ones (depending how you score Jalen Hurts). So the choice is either to spend to get one of those guys, or simply hang back, settling for a couple of the many good (but not uber-elite) options.
Question 3
How much do you expect the rookies to play in Week 1? Outside of Jeanty, Egbuka, Golden who are probably slotted into full time roles right away, should we be holding our other rookies on the bench week one to see if they're kind of eased into action? If not, which others should we be starting? Thanks again.
Matt Morse (Glennallen, AK)
TreVeyon Henderson, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, Tyler Warren, Omarion Hampton; Those guys are starters in my book. Cam Ward is starting, so I guess he might be a possibility in a Superflex league. Colston Loveland will start for the Bears, but I don’t think he’s usable yet. I will call Harold Fannin my rookie sleeper (for Week 1). I think he’s going to be playing a bunch for the Browns, I saw him catch a touchdown early in a preseason game, looking like he’ll be a piece of their offense. They’ve got a real nice matchup (home against maybe the worst defense in the league).
Question 4
Ian, I've been a follower for 20+ years. Great stuff! Was setting my league scoring profile and realized it doesn't ask what the roster settings are? So, in my custom league rankings, what is assumed, 2 RB, 2 WR and 1 flex or something other? Thanks.
JEFF NORRIS (Kirkland, WA)
I wouldn’t worry about starting lineups. The model instead to designed to focus on the key resources we’re competing for. Not just starters, but the top few reserves on each roster – they matter as well. If you’re in a 12-team league with those starting lineups, you might figure that 27 running backs and 33 wide receivers will be starting in any given week, but every team is going to also want to have another good running back and another good receiver or two. So we may want to estimate that about 60 running backs will be chosen, and about 40 of those guys are ones that we really care about (recognizing that many of those final 20 picked will be swapped out for free agents before the end of September). At wide receiver you possibly will be looking at about 72 being picked and caring about 50 of them. You should be able to use the last couple years’ drafts to get an idea of how many will be chosen.
Question 5
We draft the night before the Thursday opener. Any chance there will be new rankings before then. I know, not a real "Mailbag" question, just wondering.
David Hogshire (Plymouth, MN)
Next version drops on Thursday. I believe the most notable change will be Jauan Jennings moving up a few spots. Looks like he’s abandoning his attempts to land a new contract.
Question 6
Long time reader/ subscriber wanted to get your opinion on my recent draft. I had the 3rd pick and in order Chase, Lamar, Bucky, Sutton, T.Henderson, DeVonta Smith, Pollard, Pearsall, Egbuka, Tyler Warren, JCM, Purdy, Benson and Addison. We start 1 QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1 flex, 1 TE
Robert Green (San Francisco, CA)
Awfully nice roster. I think you’ve placed a lot of wise bets. Definitely see a path to success for that franchise. Looks very much like a team I would have drafted (but with Addison going about four rounds earlier – he’ll be good when they get him).
Question 7
Do you have any guidelines for handcuffs vis a vis your rankings? That is, are you willing to push up a player in a draft situation to secure the handcuff? Current specific example would be Brian Robinson with McCaffrey already on the team. How aggressive would you be relative to your rankings to ensure landing Robinson.
John Legg (Kansas City, MO)
Yes, I am a believer in insurance. If you select McCaffrey, I believe you scoot Robinson up 10-20 picks on your board, making sure you get him. I’ve drafted Kyren Williams in two leagues, and I spent later-round picks on Blake Corum in both of those leagues. Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet (I think) are the strongest non-McCaffrey pair in the league – I think the Seahawks will be running the ball a lot more effectively this year, and I’m also confident Walker will miss multiple games.
Question 8
What fantasy football format is your favorite? I’ve played them all and enjoyed guillotine leagues the most.
Clay Tolonen (Stillwater, MN)
I like my original league. We use an auction to select our first four players – our core guys – and a draft for the remaining 12 rounds. We use TD-only scoring, with scores from 50-plus doubled in value. No extras for yards, catches, fumbles, etc. 12 teams in three conferences, with the top 6 teams making the postseason. We’re teeing it up for season XL this year.
Question 9
Time to stash a player on the bench. Which of these names would be the best stash, the next fantasy gem? Bhaysul Tuten, Kyle Monangai, Rachaad White, Woody Marks, DJ Giddens, Tahj Brooks? Looking to stash a player who could very well be a dud but potentially a league winning stud.
Scott Fitch (San Mateo, CA)
I don’t love any of the options. I would start with Monangai. I will be interested in Week 1 to see whether it’s him or Roschon Johnson as Chicago’s 2nd-string running back. I don’t envision D’Andre Swift lasting 17 games.
Question 10
Standard scoring salary cap who would you start? Barkley, Henry, Hubbard or Bijan Robinson, Ashton Jeanty, Jonathan Taylor
Larry Noveshen (San Ramon, CA)
I’d probably be looking at Saquon. Dallas had the league’s 2nd-worst run defense last year. Taylor would be a consideration – stronger opponent, but he’ll be getting the goal-line touches.
Question 11
Odd draft. 10 team League, PPR, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 Flex, 1 QB, 1 TE. I was drafting third, took Bijon, top nine receivers were gone in the second round, and Bucky Irving was still around, so I took him. Then in the third round, Chase Brown was still there, and I couldn't see grabbing Tee Higgins as I thought I could still get some wide outs in the fourth round and beyond almost as good. So I took Brown. Managed to get kind of lucky, and got Courtland Sutton, Mike Evans and DeVonta Smith in the next three rounds. Two questions. 1) was bypassing Higgins, or QB s Joe burrow + Jaden Daniels, and taking Brown in the third round the right move, even though it was three RBS in the first three rounds? As an aside, Yahoo's draft grade hated it and gave me a D LOL 2) should I contemplate trading Chase Brown if I can get one of the top eight wide receivers, or maybe burrow or Jaden Daniels (I have Jared Goff)... My gut says hang tight, wait for injuries to play out, and I think my draft was pretty good. But advice appreciated.
Maurice Isrel (Raleigh, NC)
This issue has come up a few times with other readers over the past month. People want to lean wide receivers in those early rounds. The numbers I put together suggest running backs are being undervalued (though less so in PPR). There’s more depth at wide receiver, and that can be demonstrated by comparing the expected payout of your first six rounds against what you think you would have gotten had you stared with three wide receivers then picked three running backs. I like Chase Brown a whole lot. I would stick with your guys.
Question 12
In an attempt to anticipate next year‘s fantasy draft, I’m trying to set up my scoring system and achieve results of this year‘s draft as close as possible. I’d like running backs to be valued slightly more than wide receivers, and the quarterbacks seem to be overvalued as they are valued as second round picks. I have quarterback set at 24 drafted and seven worth more than the minimum bid. How do I make them less valuable? Thanks again, Ian and team.
MICHAEL HAMER (Springfield, PA)
If you want to make quarterbacks less valuable, change that “seven” to a 4, 5 or 6. With the way our software is set up, you’re locked into the expected production of a player as the baseline. That is, you can’t set the baseline as the number halfway between quarterback 6 and quarterback 7. If you want to tweak the numbers manually rather than simply picking numbers of players, you would need to work off the data in the Excel file. That’s a little tricky; you would need to be handy in Excel to pull it off.
Question 13
A nice QOL improvement to your custom rankings would be to add an option to add a "TE Premium" to the numbers, rather than needing to manipulate the spreadsheet manually. I'm now in 2 leagues that reward 1.5 ppr for TEs. I'm noticing this new wrinkle along with dynasty leagues in general seems to be growing in popularity rapidly!
Scott Matthews (La Mesa, CA)
We’ve got what you’re looking for. Sign on at the website and view “my products”. Click on latest version of the rankings. There are about 20 options. The ninth one down is “TE premium (12 teams)”. If you’re in tight end premium league that has a different number of teams or slightly different rules, that’s the one you want to use – make a copy of it, then adjust the parameters as necessary.
Question 14
Maybe I'm doing something wrong but when I make a custom scoring sheet/cheat sheet for an auction team it ranks players but doesn't say their value in $. That is what I want to know - what you rank each players dollar-value.
Jeff Zwiers (Bellingham, WA)
I think there’s a black button reading “view auction values” that you’re missing. Click on the scoring system you want to see (“standard”, for example). That will display players, with expected production per game. Near the top of the page are four black buttons. The one on the right reads “View Auction Values”. It switches the expected points to dollar values.