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Ian Allan

Shaughnessy's Law

Looking at running backs relative to draft position

Shaughnessy’s Law spells out that wherever a player happens to be selected in a draft, his slot isn’t his position remains constant. That is, if a running back is the 8th runner chosen, it doesn’t matter so much if he were selected in the second, third or fourth round – he’s still the 8th running back chosen.

I figured I’d poke around with this a little today. Specifically with the running backs chosen in the most recent draft. How have the other running backs – Shaughnessy backs, if you will – fared in previous years?

This study goes back 20 years. I’ve taken the first 12 runners for each of those drafts. I skimmed over the list and tossed out a lot of the fullbacks – most of those guys at the time, it was clear they were going to block, not have any fantasy value. So if a fullback was in there, he was tossed, and everybody behind him moved up a spot.

On these charts below, if a player every had a season with over 1,000 yards of offense (rushing and passing), he’s in bold. If he ever had a season with 10 TDs, he’s in bold. Not that those are golden thresholds, but I think they’ll work. If a guy is in bold, he at least kind of had some success. And we can look at the correlation between draft position and production.

First rack up are the running backs chosen either first, second or third. Of those very first guy, only two in the last 20 years have never had a season with 1,000 yards or 10 TDs – Lawrence Phillips and Bishop Sankey.

Lots of hits in here, and not many misses.

SHAUGHNESSY'S LAW, RUNNING BACKS (1,000 or 10)
Year1st Chosen2nd Chosen3rd Chosen
1996Lawrence Phillips, St.L.Tim Biakabutuka, Car.Eddie George, Hou.
1997Warrick Dunn, T.B.Antowain Smith, Buff.Tiki Barber, NYG
1998Curtis Enis, Chi.Fred Taylor, Jac.Robert Edwards, N.E.
1999Edgerrin James, Ind.Ricky Williams, N.O.James Johnson, Mia.
2000Jamal Lewis, Balt.Thomas Jones, Ariz.Ron Dayne, NYG
2001LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.Deuce McAllister, N.O.Michael Bennett, Minn.
2002William Green, Clev.T.J. Duckett, Atl.DeShaun Foster, Car.
2003Willis McGahee, Buff.Larry Johnson, K.C.Musa Smith, Balt.
2004Steven Jackson, St.L.Chris Perry, Cin.Kevin Jones, Det.
2005Ronnie Brown, Mia.Cedric Benson, Chi.Cadillac Williams, T.B.
2006Reggie Bush, N.O.Laurence Maroney, N.E.DeAngelo Williams, Car.
2007Adrian Peterson, Minn.Marshawn Lynch, Buff.Kenny Irons, Cin.
2008Darren McFadden, Oak.Jonathan Stewart, Car.Felix Jones, Dall.
2009Knowshon Moreno, Den.Donald Brown, Ind.Beanie Wells, Ariz.
2010C.J. Spiller, Buff.Ryan Mathews, S.D.Jahvid Best, Det.
2011Mark Ingram, N.O.Ryan Williams, Ariz.Shane Vereen, N.E.
2012Trent Richardson, Clev.Doug Martin, T.B.David Wilson, NYG
2013Giovani Bernard, Cin.LeVeon Bell, Pitt.Montee Ball, Den.
2014Bishop Sankey, Tenn.Jeremy Hill, Cin.Carlos Hyde, S.F.
2015Todd Gurley, St.L.Melvin Gordon, S.D.T.J. Yeldon, Jac.
2016• Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.• Derrick Henry, Ten.• Kenyan Drake, Mia.

The next notch down. Here we see players who were somewhere between the 4th and 6th running backs chosen. It’s more of an equal mix. Plenty of hits here. Note that all of the 2015 are still in plain type, but all three very easily could still hit that threshold.

SHAUGHNESSY'S LAW, RUNNING BACKS (1,000 or 10)
Year4th Chosen5th Chosen6th Chosen
1996Leeland McElroy, Ariz.Mike Alstott, T.B.Winslow Oliver, Car.
1997Byron Hanspard, Atl.Corey Dillon, Cin.Marc Edwards, S.F.
1998John Avery, Mia.Robert Holcombe, St.L.Skip Hicks, Wash.
1999Kevin Faulk, N.E.Joe Montgomery, NYGMike Cloud, K.C.
2000Shaun Alexander, Sea.Trung Canidate, St.L.Travis Prentice, Clev.
2001Anthony Thomas, Chi.LaMont Jordan, NYJTravis Henry, Buff.
2002Clinton Portis, Den.Maurice Morris, Sea.Ladell Betts, Wash.
2003Chris Brown, Tenn.Justin Fargas, Oak.Artose Pinner, Det.
2004Tatum Bell, Den.Julius Jones, Dall.Greg Jones, Jac.
2005J.J. Arrington, Ariz.Eric Shelton, Car.Frank Gore, S.F.
2006Joseph Addai, Ind.LenDale White, Tenn.Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.
2007Chris Henry, Tenn.Brandon Jackson, G.B.Lorenzo Booker, Mia.
2008Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt.Chris Johnson, Tenn.Matt Forte, Chi.
2009LeSean McCoy, Phil.Shonn Greene, NYJGlen Coffee, S.F.
2010Toby Gerhart, Minn.Ben Tate, Hou.Montario Hardesty, Clev.
2011Mikel Leshoure, Det.Daniel Thomas, Mia.DeMarco Murray, Dall.
2012Isaiah Pead, St.L.LaMichael James, S.F.Ronnie Hillman, Den.
2013Eddie Lacy, G.B.Christine Michael, Sea.Knile Davis, K.C.
2014Charles Sims, T.B.Tre Mason, St.L.Terrance West, Clev.
2015Ameer Abdullah, Det.Tevin Coleman, Atl.Duke Johnson, Clev.
2016• C.J. Prosise, Sea.• Tyler Ervin, Hou.• Kenneth Dixon, Balt.

Another notch down, we’re getting well into the classes for each year. These are the most coveted tailbacks after those initial half dozen were off the board.

As I post this, I see that Dri Archer is in there for Pittsburgh. He probably should have been scratched. He’s really small, and coming in I think it was pretty clear he would be mostly a kick returner and jack-knife player.

SHAUGHNESSY'S LAW, RUNNING BACKS (1,000 or 10)
Year7th Chosen8th Chosen9th Chosen
1996Moe Williams, Minn.Karim Abdul-Jabbar, Mia.Jerald Moore, St.L.
1997Sedrick Shaw, N.E.Troy Davis, N.O.Jay Graham, Balt.
1998Ahman Green, Sea.Chris Floyd, N.E.Rashaan Shehee, K.C.
1999Jermaine Fazande, S.D.Shawn Bryson, Buff.Jeff Paulk, Atl.
2000J.R. Redmond, N.E.Rueben Droughns, Det.Doug Chapman, Minn.
2001James Jackson, Clev.Kevan Barlow, S.F.Travis Minor, Mia.
2002Lamar Gordon, St.L.Brian Westbrook, Phil.Jonathan Wells, Hou.
2003Domanick Davis, Hou.Onterrio Smith, Minn.Quentin Griffin, Den.
2004Mewelde Moore, Minn.Cedric Cobbs, N.E.Michael Turner, S.D.
2005Vernand Morency, Hou.Ryan Moats, Phil.Maurice Clarett, Den.
2006Brian Calhoun, Det.Jerious Norwood, Atl.Leon Washington, NYJ
2007Tony Hunt, Phil.Garrett Wolfe, Chi.Michael Bush, Oak.
2008Ray Rice, Balt.Kevin Smith, Det.Jamaal Charles, K.C.
2009Mike Goodson, Car.Andre Brown, NYGGartrell Johnson, S.D.
2010Joe McKnight, NYJAnthony Dixon, S.F.Deji Karim, Jac.
2011Stevan Ridley, N.E.Alex Green, G.B.Roy Helu Jr., Wash.
2012Bernard Pierce, Balt.Lamar Miller, Mia.Robert Turbin, Sea.
2013Johnathan Franklin, G.B.Marcus Lattimore, S.F.Denard Robinson, Jac.
2014Jerick McKinnon, Minn.Dri Archer, Pitt.Devonta Freeman, Atl.
2015David Johnson, Ariz.Matt Jones, Wash.Jeremy Langford, Chi.
2016• Devontae Booker, Den.• DeAndre Washington, Oak.• Paul Perkins, NYG

Down in the last group, things have really tailed off. These are running backs selected after the first nine each year. In this group, only one of the last 21 has ever had a good season – Alfred Morris.

Of running backs selected 12th only one in the last 20 years has had a big season – Morris.

SHAUGHNESSY'S LAW, RUNNING BACKS (1,000 or 10)
Year10th Chosen11th Chosen12th Chosen
1996Reggie Brown, Sea.Stephen Davis, Wash.Ricky Whittle, N.O.
1997Duce Staley, Phil.Leon Johnson, NYJDarnell Autry, Chi.
1998Michael Pittman, Ariz.Tavian Banks, Jac.Curtis Alexander, Den.
1999Amos Zereoue, Pitt.Sedrick Irvin, Det.Sean Bennett, NYG
2000Curtis Keaton, Cin.Frank Moreau, K.C.Chris Barnes, Balt.
2001Rudi Johnson, Cin.Correll Buckhalter, Phil.Derrick Blaylock, K.C.
2002Omar Easy, K.C.Travis Stephens, T.B.Jamar Martin, Dall.
2003Lee Suggs, Clev.Justin Griffith, Atl.LaBrandon Toefield, Jac.
2004Thomas Tapeh, Phil.Troy Fleming, Tenn.Adimchinobe Echemandu, Clev.
2005Marion Barber, Dall.Brandon Jacobs, NYGCiatrick Fason, Minn.
2006P.J. Daniels, Balt.Jerome Harrison, Clev.Wali Lundy, Hou.
2007Antonio Pittman, N.O.Dwayne Wright, Buff.Kolby Smith, K.C.
2008Steve Slaton, Hou.Tashard Choice, Dall.Ryan Torain, Den.
2009Frank Summers, Pitt.Javon Ringer, Tenn.Cedric Peerman, Balt.
2010Jonathan Dwyer, Pitt.James Starks, G.B.Charles Scott, Phil.
2011Kendall Hunter, S.F.Delone Carter, Ind.Taiwan Jones, Oak.
2012Chris Rainey, Pitt.Vick Ballard, Ind.Alfred Morris, Wash.
2013Stepfan Taylor, Ariz.Joseph Randle, Dall.Chris Thompson, Wash.
2014Andre Williams, NYGKaDeem Carey, Chi.DeAnthony Thomas, K.C.
2015Jalston Fowler, Tenn.Javorius Allen, Balt.Mike Davis, S.F.
2016• Josh Howard, Chi.• Wendell Smallwood, Phil.• Jonathan Williams, Buff.

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