Shaughnessy’s Law spells out that wherever a player happens to be selected in a draft, his slot isn’t his position remains constant. That is, if a running back is the 8th runner chosen, it doesn’t matter so much if he were selected in the second, third or fourth round – he’s still the 8th running back chosen.
I figured I’d poke around with this a little today. Specifically with the running backs chosen in the most recent draft. How have the other running backs – Shaughnessy backs, if you will – fared in previous years?
This study goes back 20 years. I’ve taken the first 12 runners for each of those drafts. I skimmed over the list and tossed out a lot of the fullbacks – most of those guys at the time, it was clear they were going to block, not have any fantasy value. So if a fullback was in there, he was tossed, and everybody behind him moved up a spot.
On these charts below, if a player every had a season with over 1,000 yards of offense (rushing and passing), he’s in bold. If he ever had a season with 10 TDs, he’s in bold. Not that those are golden thresholds, but I think they’ll work. If a guy is in bold, he at least kind of had some success. And we can look at the correlation between draft position and production.
First rack up are the running backs chosen either first, second or third. Of those very first guy, only two in the last 20 years have never had a season with 1,000 yards or 10 TDs – Lawrence Phillips and Bishop Sankey.
Lots of hits in here, and not many misses.
SHAUGHNESSY'S LAW, RUNNING BACKS (1,000 or 10) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Year | 1st Chosen | 2nd Chosen | 3rd Chosen |
1996 | Lawrence Phillips, St.L. | Tim Biakabutuka, Car. | Eddie George, Hou. |
1997 | Warrick Dunn, T.B. | Antowain Smith, Buff. | Tiki Barber, NYG |
1998 | Curtis Enis, Chi. | Fred Taylor, Jac. | Robert Edwards, N.E. |
1999 | Edgerrin James, Ind. | Ricky Williams, N.O. | James Johnson, Mia. |
2000 | Jamal Lewis, Balt. | Thomas Jones, Ariz. | Ron Dayne, NYG |
2001 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | Deuce McAllister, N.O. | Michael Bennett, Minn. |
2002 | William Green, Clev. | T.J. Duckett, Atl. | DeShaun Foster, Car. |
2003 | Willis McGahee, Buff. | Larry Johnson, K.C. | Musa Smith, Balt. |
2004 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | Chris Perry, Cin. | Kevin Jones, Det. |
2005 | Ronnie Brown, Mia. | Cedric Benson, Chi. | Cadillac Williams, T.B. |
2006 | Reggie Bush, N.O. | Laurence Maroney, N.E. | DeAngelo Williams, Car. |
2007 | Adrian Peterson, Minn. | Marshawn Lynch, Buff. | Kenny Irons, Cin. |
2008 | Darren McFadden, Oak. | Jonathan Stewart, Car. | Felix Jones, Dall. |
2009 | Knowshon Moreno, Den. | Donald Brown, Ind. | Beanie Wells, Ariz. |
2010 | C.J. Spiller, Buff. | Ryan Mathews, S.D. | Jahvid Best, Det. |
2011 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | Ryan Williams, Ariz. | Shane Vereen, N.E. |
2012 | Trent Richardson, Clev. | Doug Martin, T.B. | David Wilson, NYG |
2013 | Giovani Bernard, Cin. | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | Montee Ball, Den. |
2014 | Bishop Sankey, Tenn. | Jeremy Hill, Cin. | Carlos Hyde, S.F. |
2015 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | Melvin Gordon, S.D. | T.J. Yeldon, Jac. |
2016 | • Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | • Derrick Henry, Ten. | • Kenyan Drake, Mia. |
The next notch down. Here we see players who were somewhere between the 4th and 6th running backs chosen. It’s more of an equal mix. Plenty of hits here. Note that all of the 2015 are still in plain type, but all three very easily could still hit that threshold.
SHAUGHNESSY'S LAW, RUNNING BACKS (1,000 or 10) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Year | 4th Chosen | 5th Chosen | 6th Chosen |
1996 | Leeland McElroy, Ariz. | Mike Alstott, T.B. | Winslow Oliver, Car. |
1997 | Byron Hanspard, Atl. | Corey Dillon, Cin. | Marc Edwards, S.F. |
1998 | John Avery, Mia. | Robert Holcombe, St.L. | Skip Hicks, Wash. |
1999 | Kevin Faulk, N.E. | Joe Montgomery, NYG | Mike Cloud, K.C. |
2000 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | Trung Canidate, St.L. | Travis Prentice, Clev. |
2001 | Anthony Thomas, Chi. | LaMont Jordan, NYJ | Travis Henry, Buff. |
2002 | Clinton Portis, Den. | Maurice Morris, Sea. | Ladell Betts, Wash. |
2003 | Chris Brown, Tenn. | Justin Fargas, Oak. | Artose Pinner, Det. |
2004 | Tatum Bell, Den. | Julius Jones, Dall. | Greg Jones, Jac. |
2005 | J.J. Arrington, Ariz. | Eric Shelton, Car. | Frank Gore, S.F. |
2006 | Joseph Addai, Ind. | LenDale White, Tenn. | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. |
2007 | Chris Henry, Tenn. | Brandon Jackson, G.B. | Lorenzo Booker, Mia. |
2008 | Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt. | Chris Johnson, Tenn. | Matt Forte, Chi. |
2009 | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | Shonn Greene, NYJ | Glen Coffee, S.F. |
2010 | Toby Gerhart, Minn. | Ben Tate, Hou. | Montario Hardesty, Clev. |
2011 | Mikel Leshoure, Det. | Daniel Thomas, Mia. | DeMarco Murray, Dall. |
2012 | Isaiah Pead, St.L. | LaMichael James, S.F. | Ronnie Hillman, Den. |
2013 | Eddie Lacy, G.B. | Christine Michael, Sea. | Knile Davis, K.C. |
2014 | Charles Sims, T.B. | Tre Mason, St.L. | Terrance West, Clev. |
2015 | Ameer Abdullah, Det. | Tevin Coleman, Atl. | Duke Johnson, Clev. |
2016 | • C.J. Prosise, Sea. | • Tyler Ervin, Hou. | • Kenneth Dixon, Balt. |
Another notch down, we’re getting well into the classes for each year. These are the most coveted tailbacks after those initial half dozen were off the board.
As I post this, I see that Dri Archer is in there for Pittsburgh. He probably should have been scratched. He’s really small, and coming in I think it was pretty clear he would be mostly a kick returner and jack-knife player.
SHAUGHNESSY'S LAW, RUNNING BACKS (1,000 or 10) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Year | 7th Chosen | 8th Chosen | 9th Chosen |
1996 | Moe Williams, Minn. | Karim Abdul-Jabbar, Mia. | Jerald Moore, St.L. |
1997 | Sedrick Shaw, N.E. | Troy Davis, N.O. | Jay Graham, Balt. |
1998 | Ahman Green, Sea. | Chris Floyd, N.E. | Rashaan Shehee, K.C. |
1999 | Jermaine Fazande, S.D. | Shawn Bryson, Buff. | Jeff Paulk, Atl. |
2000 | J.R. Redmond, N.E. | Rueben Droughns, Det. | Doug Chapman, Minn. |
2001 | James Jackson, Clev. | Kevan Barlow, S.F. | Travis Minor, Mia. |
2002 | Lamar Gordon, St.L. | Brian Westbrook, Phil. | Jonathan Wells, Hou. |
2003 | Domanick Davis, Hou. | Onterrio Smith, Minn. | Quentin Griffin, Den. |
2004 | Mewelde Moore, Minn. | Cedric Cobbs, N.E. | Michael Turner, S.D. |
2005 | Vernand Morency, Hou. | Ryan Moats, Phil. | Maurice Clarett, Den. |
2006 | Brian Calhoun, Det. | Jerious Norwood, Atl. | Leon Washington, NYJ |
2007 | Tony Hunt, Phil. | Garrett Wolfe, Chi. | Michael Bush, Oak. |
2008 | Ray Rice, Balt. | Kevin Smith, Det. | Jamaal Charles, K.C. |
2009 | Mike Goodson, Car. | Andre Brown, NYG | Gartrell Johnson, S.D. |
2010 | Joe McKnight, NYJ | Anthony Dixon, S.F. | Deji Karim, Jac. |
2011 | Stevan Ridley, N.E. | Alex Green, G.B. | Roy Helu Jr., Wash. |
2012 | Bernard Pierce, Balt. | Lamar Miller, Mia. | Robert Turbin, Sea. |
2013 | Johnathan Franklin, G.B. | Marcus Lattimore, S.F. | Denard Robinson, Jac. |
2014 | Jerick McKinnon, Minn. | Dri Archer, Pitt. | Devonta Freeman, Atl. |
2015 | David Johnson, Ariz. | Matt Jones, Wash. | Jeremy Langford, Chi. |
2016 | • Devontae Booker, Den. | • DeAndre Washington, Oak. | • Paul Perkins, NYG |
Down in the last group, things have really tailed off. These are running backs selected after the first nine each year. In this group, only one of the last 21 has ever had a good season – Alfred Morris.
Of running backs selected 12th only one in the last 20 years has had a big season – Morris.
SHAUGHNESSY'S LAW, RUNNING BACKS (1,000 or 10) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Year | 10th Chosen | 11th Chosen | 12th Chosen |
1996 | Reggie Brown, Sea. | Stephen Davis, Wash. | Ricky Whittle, N.O. |
1997 | Duce Staley, Phil. | Leon Johnson, NYJ | Darnell Autry, Chi. |
1998 | Michael Pittman, Ariz. | Tavian Banks, Jac. | Curtis Alexander, Den. |
1999 | Amos Zereoue, Pitt. | Sedrick Irvin, Det. | Sean Bennett, NYG |
2000 | Curtis Keaton, Cin. | Frank Moreau, K.C. | Chris Barnes, Balt. |
2001 | Rudi Johnson, Cin. | Correll Buckhalter, Phil. | Derrick Blaylock, K.C. |
2002 | Omar Easy, K.C. | Travis Stephens, T.B. | Jamar Martin, Dall. |
2003 | Lee Suggs, Clev. | Justin Griffith, Atl. | LaBrandon Toefield, Jac. |
2004 | Thomas Tapeh, Phil. | Troy Fleming, Tenn. | Adimchinobe Echemandu, Clev. |
2005 | Marion Barber, Dall. | Brandon Jacobs, NYG | Ciatrick Fason, Minn. |
2006 | P.J. Daniels, Balt. | Jerome Harrison, Clev. | Wali Lundy, Hou. |
2007 | Antonio Pittman, N.O. | Dwayne Wright, Buff. | Kolby Smith, K.C. |
2008 | Steve Slaton, Hou. | Tashard Choice, Dall. | Ryan Torain, Den. |
2009 | Frank Summers, Pitt. | Javon Ringer, Tenn. | Cedric Peerman, Balt. |
2010 | Jonathan Dwyer, Pitt. | James Starks, G.B. | Charles Scott, Phil. |
2011 | Kendall Hunter, S.F. | Delone Carter, Ind. | Taiwan Jones, Oak. |
2012 | Chris Rainey, Pitt. | Vick Ballard, Ind. | Alfred Morris, Wash. |
2013 | Stepfan Taylor, Ariz. | Joseph Randle, Dall. | Chris Thompson, Wash. |
2014 | Andre Williams, NYG | KaDeem Carey, Chi. | DeAnthony Thomas, K.C. |
2015 | Jalston Fowler, Tenn. | Javorius Allen, Balt. | Mike Davis, S.F. |
2016 | • Josh Howard, Chi. | • Wendell Smallwood, Phil. | • Jonathan Williams, Buff. |