I put out the little blurb about Antonio Brown last night, and the critics came out with guns a-blazing. Four different guys pointed out that running backs are a crapshoot, while with wide receivers we all know who the top guys are going to be. Receivers are issued along with U.S. Treasury bonds; you select Antonio Brown with the first pick, and three months later you get to go down and collect your 125 catches, 1,800 yards and 12 TDs.
But is this premise true? Are wide receivers really safer and more reliable than running backs?
Let’s poke that around a little. (I don’t have all day to work on this, we’re in the last week of production on the on-paper version of the magazine.)
For this one, I’m pulling out the top 3 players at each position for this century. With there being 15 years, that’s 45 running backs getting compared to 45 wide receivers – top 3 from each season. These should be the guys who are most coveted at drafts the next year. These are the guys coming off big seasons.
Now, let’s look at what they do in the next season. Let’s look at the decline at running back, and see if it’s greater than with the wide receivers.
For this one, I decided to toss out guys who didn’t play at all the next year. Tiki Barber, for example, had a huge season but then retired; didn’t seem to be any point in sticking him in there, since he didn’t decline so much as retire. Similarly, Jordy Nelson got hurt last year almost a month before opening day. I tossed him from the study.
For these top 3 running backs over the last 15 years, they averaged 305 points in their great seasons. When selected the next year, they came back and averaged 217 points. That’s a decline of 29 percent.
For the top 3 wide receivers, they averaged 223 points in their big season (this is using standard scoring). They declined to 161 points the next year. That’s a decline of 28 percent. Almost identical.
I’m not knocking those who decide to select Brown, Beckham or Jones in the top 5 overall. Those guys are good players. But to package it as some kind of given or certainty doesn’t make sense in my eyes. It’s harder to find running backs, so I would be giving substantial consideration to those three running backs – Bell, Gurley, Johnson. I suppose Adrian Peterson is in the discussion as well, but at 31 years old, that’s too rich for my blood.
On these charts below, I’m showing just fantasy points using standard scoring. Shown are the top 3 from each seasons since 2000. If a player came back and put up even better numbers the next year his name is in bold.
| TOP-3 RUNNING BACKS (the next year) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Points | Next | Diff |
| 2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 426.3 | 306.9 | 72% |
| 2000 | Marshall Faulk | 378.9 | 342.7 | 90% |
| 2003 | Priest Holmes | 373.0 | 197.9 | 53% |
| 2002 | Priest Holmes | 372.7 | 373.0 | 100% |
| 2005 | Shaun Alexander | 363.8 | 136.4 | 37% |
| 2009 | Chris Johnson | 348.9 | 232.9 | 67% |
| 2003 | Ahman Green | 345.0 | 195.8 | 57% |
| 2003 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 343.0 | 285.6 | 83% |
| 2001 | Marshall Faulk | 342.7 | 209.0 | 61% |
| 2000 | Edgerrin James | 340.3 | 105.5 | 31% |
| 2005 | Larry Johnson | 335.3 | 333.9 | 100% |
| 2006 | Larry Johnson | 333.9 | 98.5 | 29% |
| 2010 | Arian Foster | 330.0 | 256.1 | 78% |
| 2006 | Steven Jackson | 329.4 | 167.3 | 51% |
| 2002 | Ricky Williams | 323.6 | 232.3 | 72% |
| 2005 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 315.2 | 426.3 | 135% |
| 2013 | Jamaal Charles | 312.0 | 216.4 | 69% |
| 2012 | Adrian Peterson | 311.4 | 209.7 | 67% |
| 2002 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 307.2 | 343.0 | 112% |
| 2007 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 306.9 | 225.6 | 74% |
| 2004 | Shaun Alexander | 306.6 | 363.8 | 119% |
| 2014 | DeMarco Murray | 304.1 | 144.4 | 47% |
| 2011 | Ray Rice | 300.8 | 222.1 | 74% |
| 2004 | Tiki Barber | 299.6 | 307.0 | 102% |
| 2000 | Eddie George | 292.2 | 151.8 | 52% |
| 2009 | Adrian Peterson | 289.9 | 241.9 | 83% |
| 2014 | LeVeon Bell | 287.5 | 87.2 | 30% |
| 2004 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 285.6 | 315.2 | 110% |
| 2008 | DeAngelo Williams | 285.6 | 180.9 | 63% |
| 2007 | Brian Westbrook | 282.4 | 217.8 | 77% |
| 2011 | LeSean McCoy | 282.4 | 151.3 | 54% |
| 2013 | LeSean McCoy | 280.6 | 177.4 | 63% |
| 2001 | Priest Holmes | 276.9 | 372.7 | 135% |
| 2008 | Michael Turner | 276.0 | 150.6 | 55% |
| 2009 | Maurice Jones-Drew | 272.5 | 206.1 | 76% |
| 2014 | Marshawn Lynch | 269.3 | 69.7 | 26% |
| 2013 | Matt Forte | 267.3 | 248.6 | 93% |
| 2012 | Arian Foster | 266.1 | 86.5 | 33% |
| 2012 | Doug Martin | 264.6 | 58.2 | 22% |
| 2001 | Ahman Green | 264.1 | 217.3 | 82% |
| 2011 | Maurice Jones-Drew | 264.0 | 62.0 | 23% |
| 2008 | Adrian Peterson | 248.5 | 289.9 | 117% |
| 2010 | Peyton Hillis | 243.4 | 89.7 | 37% |
| 2010 | Adrian Peterson | 241.9 | 188.9 | 78% |
| 2007 | Adrian Peterson | 238.9 | 248.5 | 104% |
| TOP-3 WIDE RECEIVERS (the next year) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Points | Next | Diff |
| 2007 | Randy Moss | 287.3 | 166.8 | 58% |
| 2003 | Randy Moss | 267.0 | 154.7 | 58% |
| 2011 | Calvin Johnson | 265.2 | 226.4 | 85% |
| 2014 | Antonio Brown | 261.1 | 256.2 | 98% |
| 2001 | Marvin Harrison | 242.7 | 241.2 | 99% |
| 2003 | Torry Holt | 242.1 | 197.2 | 81% |
| 2002 | Marvin Harrison | 241.2 | 187.5 | 78% |
| 2001 | Terrell Owens | 239.3 | 221.9 | 93% |
| 2004 | Muhsin Muhammad | 238.0 | 98.1 | 41% |
| 2005 | Steve Smith Sr. | 236.8 | 176.7 | 75% |
| 2000 | Randy Moss | 236.2 | 187.1 | 79% |
| 2014 | Demaryius Thomas | 229.9 | 166.4 | 72% |
| 2014 | Dez Bryant | 228.0 | 58.1 | 25% |
| 2013 | Josh Gordon | 227.4 | 30.3 | 13% |
| 2013 | Demaryius Thomas | 227.0 | 229.9 | 101% |
| 2012 | Calvin Johnson | 226.4 | 221.2 | 98% |
| 2000 | Terrell Owens | 226.2 | 239.3 | 106% |
| 2007 | Terrell Owens | 226.0 | 168.5 | 75% |
| 2000 | Marvin Harrison | 225.3 | 242.7 | 108% |
| 2002 | Hines Ward | 225.1 | 182.4 | 81% |
| 2007 | Braylon Edwards | 224.9 | 109.3 | 49% |
| 2002 | Terrell Owens | 221.9 | 164.0 | 74% |
| 2013 | Calvin Johnson | 221.2 | 155.7 | 70% |
| 2012 | Brandon Marshall | 216.6 | 205.5 | 95% |
| 2011 | Jordy Nelson | 216.3 | 118.5 | 55% |
| 2008 | Larry Fitzgerald | 215.1 | 187.2 | 87% |
| 2011 | Wes Welker | 213.9 | 173.4 | 81% |
| 2009 | Andre Johnson | 212.9 | 170.6 | 80% |
| 2012 | Dez Bryant | 211.7 | 201.4 | 95% |
| 2001 | David Boston | 211.3 | 60.1 | 28% |
| 2004 | Javon Walker | 210.2 | 3.1 | 1% |
| 2010 | Brandon Lloyd | 209.0 | 126.6 | 61% |
| 2006 | Marvin Harrison | 208.6 | 30.7 | 15% |
| 2004 | Joe Horn | 207.9 | 63.4 | 30% |
| 2008 | Calvin Johnson | 207.0 | 135.7 | 66% |
| 2010 | Dwayne Bowe | 206.6 | 147.1 | 71% |
| 2009 | Randy Moss | 206.4 | 69.3 | 34% |
| 2008 | Andre Johnson | 205.5 | 212.9 | 104% |
| 2005 | Larry Fitzgerald | 205.0 | 130.6 | 64% |
| 2010 | Roddy White | 203.2 | 177.6 | 87% |
| 2005 | Anquan Boldin | 202.6 | 147.1 | 73% |
| 2009 | DeSean Jackson | 202.4 | 164.0 | 81% |
| 2006 | Terrell Owens | 198.0 | 226.0 | 114% |
| 2003 | Chad Johnson | 195.5 | 185.3 | 95% |
| 2006 | Reggie Wayne | 187.0 | 211.4 | 113% |