I put out the little blurb about Antonio Brown last night, and the critics came out with guns a-blazing. Four different guys pointed out that running backs are a crapshoot, while with wide receivers we all know who the top guys are going to be. Receivers are issued along with U.S. Treasury bonds; you select Antonio Brown with the first pick, and three months later you get to go down and collect your 125 catches, 1,800 yards and 12 TDs.

But is this premise true? Are wide receivers really safer and more reliable than running backs?

Let’s poke that around a little. (I don’t have all day to work on this, we’re in the last week of production on the on-paper version of the magazine.)

For this one, I’m pulling out the top 3 players at each position for this century. With there being 15 years, that’s 45 running backs getting compared to 45 wide receivers – top 3 from each season. These should be the guys who are most coveted at drafts the next year. These are the guys coming off big seasons.

Now, let’s look at what they do in the next season. Let’s look at the decline at running back, and see if it’s greater than with the wide receivers.

For this one, I decided to toss out guys who didn’t play at all the next year. Tiki Barber, for example, had a huge season but then retired; didn’t seem to be any point in sticking him in there, since he didn’t decline so much as retire. Similarly, Jordy Nelson got hurt last year almost a month before opening day. I tossed him from the study.

For these top 3 running backs over the last 15 years, they averaged 305 points in their great seasons. When selected the next year, they came back and averaged 217 points. That’s a decline of 29 percent.

For the top 3 wide receivers, they averaged 223 points in their big season (this is using standard scoring). They declined to 161 points the next year. That’s a decline of 28 percent. Almost identical.

I’m not knocking those who decide to select Brown, Beckham or Jones in the top 5 overall. Those guys are good players. But to package it as some kind of given or certainty doesn’t make sense in my eyes. It’s harder to find running backs, so I would be giving substantial consideration to those three running backs – Bell, Gurley, Johnson. I suppose Adrian Peterson is in the discussion as well, but at 31 years old, that’s too rich for my blood.

On these charts below, I’m showing just fantasy points using standard scoring. Shown are the top 3 from each seasons since 2000. If a player came back and put up even better numbers the next year his name is in bold.

TOP-3 RUNNING BACKS (the next year)
YearPlayerPointsNextDiff
2006LaDainian Tomlinson426.3306.972%
2000Marshall Faulk378.9342.790%
2003Priest Holmes373.0197.953%
2002Priest Holmes372.7373.0100%
2005Shaun Alexander363.8136.437%
2009Chris Johnson348.9232.967%
2003Ahman Green345.0195.857%
2003LaDainian Tomlinson343.0285.683%
2001Marshall Faulk342.7209.061%
2000Edgerrin James340.3105.531%
2005Larry Johnson335.3333.9100%
2006Larry Johnson333.998.529%
2010Arian Foster330.0256.178%
2006Steven Jackson329.4167.351%
2002Ricky Williams323.6232.372%
2005LaDainian Tomlinson315.2426.3135%
2013Jamaal Charles312.0216.469%
2012Adrian Peterson311.4209.767%
2002LaDainian Tomlinson307.2343.0112%
2007LaDainian Tomlinson306.9225.674%
2004Shaun Alexander306.6363.8119%
2014DeMarco Murray304.1144.447%
2011Ray Rice300.8222.174%
2004Tiki Barber299.6307.0102%
2000Eddie George292.2151.852%
2009Adrian Peterson289.9241.983%
2014LeVeon Bell287.587.230%
2004LaDainian Tomlinson285.6315.2110%
2008DeAngelo Williams285.6180.963%
2007Brian Westbrook282.4217.877%
2011LeSean McCoy282.4151.354%
2013LeSean McCoy280.6177.463%
2001Priest Holmes276.9372.7135%
2008Michael Turner276.0150.655%
2009Maurice Jones-Drew272.5206.176%
2014Marshawn Lynch269.369.726%
2013Matt Forte267.3248.693%
2012Arian Foster266.186.533%
2012Doug Martin264.658.222%
2001Ahman Green264.1217.382%
2011Maurice Jones-Drew264.062.023%
2008Adrian Peterson248.5289.9117%
2010Peyton Hillis243.489.737%
2010Adrian Peterson241.9188.978%
2007Adrian Peterson238.9248.5104%
TOP-3 WIDE RECEIVERS (the next year)
YearPlayerPointsNextDiff
2007Randy Moss287.3166.858%
2003Randy Moss267.0154.758%
2011Calvin Johnson265.2226.485%
2014Antonio Brown261.1256.298%
2001Marvin Harrison242.7241.299%
2003Torry Holt242.1197.281%
2002Marvin Harrison241.2187.578%
2001Terrell Owens239.3221.993%
2004Muhsin Muhammad238.098.141%
2005Steve Smith Sr.236.8176.775%
2000Randy Moss236.2187.179%
2014Demaryius Thomas229.9166.472%
2014Dez Bryant228.058.125%
2013Josh Gordon227.430.313%
2013Demaryius Thomas227.0229.9101%
2012Calvin Johnson226.4221.298%
2000Terrell Owens226.2239.3106%
2007Terrell Owens226.0168.575%
2000Marvin Harrison225.3242.7108%
2002Hines Ward225.1182.481%
2007Braylon Edwards224.9109.349%
2002Terrell Owens221.9164.074%
2013Calvin Johnson221.2155.770%
2012Brandon Marshall216.6205.595%
2011Jordy Nelson216.3118.555%
2008Larry Fitzgerald215.1187.287%
2011Wes Welker213.9173.481%
2009Andre Johnson212.9170.680%
2012Dez Bryant211.7201.495%
2001David Boston211.360.128%
2004Javon Walker210.23.11%
2010Brandon Lloyd209.0126.661%
2006Marvin Harrison208.630.715%
2004Joe Horn207.963.430%
2008Calvin Johnson207.0135.766%
2010Dwayne Bowe206.6147.171%
2009Randy Moss206.469.334%
2008Andre Johnson205.5212.9104%
2005Larry Fitzgerald205.0130.664%
2010Roddy White203.2177.687%
2005Anquan Boldin202.6147.173%
2009DeSean Jackson202.4164.081%
2006Terrell Owens198.0226.0114%
2003Chad Johnson195.5185.395%
2006Reggie Wayne187.0211.4113%