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Factoid

June 06, 2016

Rob Gronkowski

Is Rob Gronkowski worth a first-round pick?

Do you select Rob Gronkowski in the first round of a fantasy draft? He’s the No. 1 tight end, and he’s a lot better than the other tight ends. Or is he?

There are more good tight ends than there have been in the past. While Gronkowski was good last year, for example, those who selected tight ends like Delanie Walker, Tyler Eifert and Jordan Reed got much better deals, relative to where they were selected.

It used to be totally awesome if you could get a tight end who’d catch 80 passes and 10 TDs. Now, not as much, with the bar being raised at this position. Gone are the days of being stuck with a tight end who’d catch 40 passes and 3-4 TDs if you waited until the late rounds in your draft to address this position.

So I thought for today, I’d look at the position of No. 1 tight ends, relative to other players at their position.

That is, in a 12-team fantasy league, we can operate under the slightly flawed assumption that the worst team at this position will wind up with the 12th-best tight end. We can look at his position, then see how much better Gronkowski is. We do that for every year, and we get an idea of how much better (or not) Gronkowski is relative to tight ends who’ve finished No. 1 in the past.

And it looks something like this. (And for this, I’m using 6 points for touchdowns and 1 point for every 10 yards.)

Gronkowski in each of the last two years has been an above-average No. 1 tight end, but not totally blowing the doors off it, like he did back in 2011. That was a long time ago.

TOP TIGHT ENDS VS. 12TH-BEST TIGHT END
YearNo. 1 TENo. 12 TEDiff
2011Rob GronkowskiFred Davis143.1
2013Jimmy GrahamDelanie Walker124.4
2000Tony GonzalezJackie Harris111.7
2004Antonio GatesJeb Putzier105.2
2015Rob GronkowskiJason Witten94.3
2005Antonio GatesBen Troupe93.1
2014Rob GronkowskiHeath Miller88.3
2003Tony GonzalezJim Kleinsasser87.5
2008Tony GonzalezTony Scheffler83.3
2007Jason WittenDesmond Clark78.0
2009Vernon DavisZach Miller76.0
2006Antonio GatesJason Witten65.0
2010Jason WittenBenjamin Watson61.9
2002Todd HeapItula Mili58.8
2001Tony GonzalezErnie Conwell56.6
2012Jimmy GrahamAntonio Gates56.4

The 12th-best tight end, of course, is just one piece of the puzzle. It doesn’t account for those other tight ends who were really nice values last year – Eifert, Walker and Reed.

So here’s a look at Gronkowski relative to the 5th-best tight end (Walker) and how it compares to previous years. In this comparison, Gronkowski last year was a below-average No. 1 tight end.

TOP TIGHT ENDS VS. 5TH-BEST TIGHT END
YearNo. 1 TENo. 5 TEDiff
2011Rob GronkowskiJermichael Finley116.0
2013Jimmy GrahamJordan Cameron83.8
2000Tony GonzalezFrank Wycheck82.7
2003Tony GonzalezBoo Williams78.0
2004Antonio GatesRandy McMichael69.3
2008Tony GonzalezVisanthe Shiancoe64.2
2014Rob GronkowskiMartellus Bennett52.8
2009Vernon DavisTony Gonzalez51.8
2005Antonio GatesChris Cooley50.7
2010Jason WittenRob Gronkowski41.6
2001Tony GonzalezFrank Wycheck38.5
2015Rob GronkowskiDelanie Walker36.8
2006Antonio GatesChris Cooley35.0
2002Todd HeapShannon Sharpe35.0
2012Jimmy GrahamJason Witten30.3
2007Jason WittenChris Cooley27.9

I suppose when we’re looking at this kind of thing, we should weigh these top players not against the 5th- or 12th-best tight end, but against all of them.

That is, the No. 1 tight end should be a little better than the No. 2 guy, and a little more than the No. 3 guy. He’ll be a lot better than the Nos. 10, 11 and 12 tight ends. When you add up all of those differences, what do we see?

In the case of tight ends, Gronkowski has been only an average No. 1 tight end in the last two years in total value.

TOTAL VALUE OF TOP TIGHT ENDS
YearPlayerYardsTDPoints"Value"
2011Rob Gronkowski, N.E.1,32718240.71,276
2013Jimmy Graham, N.O.1,21516217.51,033
2000Tony Gonzalez, K.C.1,2039174.31,028
2003Tony Gonzalez, K.C.91610151.6813
2004Antonio Gates, S.D.96413174.4807
2008Tony Gonzalez, K.C.1,05810165.8741
2005Antonio Gates, S.D.1,10110170.1739
2014Rob Gronkowski, N.E.1,12412184.4681
2015Rob Gronkowski, N.E.1,17611183.6641
2009Vernon Davis, S.F.96513174.5539
2010Jason Witten, Dall.1,0029156.2503
2007Jason Witten, Dall.1,1457156.5493
2006Antonio Gates, S.D.9249146.4491
2001Tony Gonzalez, K.C.9176129.7471
2002Todd Heap, Balt.8366121.6425
2012Jimmy Graham, N.O.9829152.2395

—Ian Allan

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