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Ian Allan

More W-L data

Can a quarterback on a bad team post good numbers?

Should you concentrate on drafting players from good teams? Are they more likely to put up big numbers. It’s an issue we’ve been kicking around the last few days with running backs and wide receivers. Today: quarterbacks.

With each of these positions, I’ve taken the top 100 players of the last 10 years – the top 10 guys from each of those seasons. Then we can look at the win-loss records for each team to determine how often somebody puts up big numbers even while the team around him is struggling.

Logically, it makes sense for the good players to come from winning teams. If a quarterback throws 45 touchdowns, for example, you have to figure that team would win double-digit games. And if a quarterback threw only 14 touchdowns and averaged only 220 passing yards, how on earth would that team every win?

For most of us (I put myself in this group) we tend to think this correlation is strongest with running backs. Always be wary of a running back on a lousy team, because when they fall behind they’ll have to move away from the run and go into catch-up mode. Andy pointed out that the pass-catching running backs like Matt Forte can be exceptions to this rule, since those cheap dumpoff catches tend to come when the team is behind.

But after looking at the quarterback position, the win-loss dynamic doesn’t grade out super favorably for running backs. That is, it’s actually been stronger for quarterbacks and wide receivers.

With quarterbacks, of the top 100, 65 came from teams that finished the year with winning records. That’s more than wide receivers (62) or running backs (51). If you want to make it .500 or above, then the totals run 79-77-72, with quarterbacks and wide receivers the highest. (Note that the running back numbers are slightly higher than what I stated before; I found a hiccup in the preparation of this data.)

Looking at it from the other way, only 21 of the 100 top-10 quarterbacks of the last 10 years have come from teams with losing records. That beats wide receivers (23) and running backs (28).

TOP 100 QUARTERBACKS OF LAST 10 YEARS
YearPlayerPassTDPRunTDW-L
2013Peyton Manning, Den.5,47755-311(13-3)
2011Drew Brees, N.O.5,47646861(13-3)
2007Tom Brady, N.E.4,80650982(16-0)
2011Aaron Rodgers, G.B.4,643452573(15-1)
2015Cam Newton, Car.3,8373563610(15-1)
2011Tom Brady, N.E.5,235391093(13-3)
2011Cam Newton, Car.4,0512170614(6-10)
2014Andrew Luck, Ind.4,761402733(11-5)
2012Drew Brees, N.O.5,1774351(7-9)
2013Drew Brees, N.O.5,16239523(11-5)
2011Matthew Stafford, Det.5,03841780(10-6)
2014Aaron Rodgers, G.B.4,381382692(12-4)
2012Aaron Rodgers, G.B.4,295392592(11-5)
2009Aaron Rodgers, G.B.4,434303165(11-5)
2015Blake Bortles, Jac.4,428353102(5-11)
2015Tom Brady, N.E.4,77036533(12-4)
2012Tom Brady, N.E.4,82734324(12-4)
2015Russell Wilson, Sea.4,024345531(10-6)
2014Peyton Manning, Den.4,72739-240(12-4)
2014Drew Brees, N.O.4,95233681(7-9)
2012Cam Newton, Car.3,869197418(7-9)
2008• Drew Brees, N.O.5,06934-10(8-8)
2014Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.4,95232270(11-5)
2012Matt Ryan, Atl.4,719321411(13-3)
2012Peyton Manning, Den.4,6593760(13-3)
2015Carson Palmer, Ariz.4,67135241(13-3)
2007Tony Romo, Dall.4,211361292(13-3)
2015Drew Brees, N.O.4,87032141(7-9)
2013Andy Dalton, Cin.4,293331832(11-5)
2014Russell Wilson, Sea.3,475208496(12-4)
2006Peyton Manning, Ind.4,39731364(12-4)
2012• Tony Romo, Dall.4,90328491(8-8)
2013Matthew Stafford, Det.4,65029692(7-9)
2009Drew Brees, N.O.4,38834332(13-3)
2011Eli Manning, NYG4,93329151(9-7)
2010Peyton Manning, Ind.4,70033180(10-6)
2015Eli Manning, NYG4,43635610(6-10)
2010Aaron Rodgers, G.B.3,922283564(10-6)
2012Matthew Stafford, Det.4,967201264(4-12)
2012Andrew Luck, Ind.4,374232555(11-5)
2012Robert Griffin III, Wash.3,200208157(10-6)
2015Aaron Rodgers, G.B.3,821313441(10-6)
2014Matt Ryan, Atl.4,694281450(6-10)
2015Kirk Cousins, Wash.4,16629485(9-7)
2015Matthew Stafford, Det.4,262321591(7-9)
2010Philip Rivers, S.D.4,71030520(9-7)
2010Drew Brees, N.O.4,62033-30(11-5)
2008Aaron Rodgers, G.B.4,038282074(6-10)
2008• Jay Cutler, Den.4,526252002(8-8)
2009Matt Schaub, Hou.4,77029570(9-7)
2013Cam Newton, Car.3,379245856(12-4)
2013Philip Rivers, S.D.4,47832720(9-7)
2010Michael Vick, Phil.3,018216769(10-6)
2009Peyton Manning, Ind.4,50033-130(14-2)
2013Andrew Luck, Ind.3,822233774(11-5)
2011• Philip Rivers, S.D.4,62427361(8-8)
2014Eli Manning, NYG4,41030311(6-10)
2008Kurt Warner, Ariz.4,58330-20(9-7)
2008• Philip Rivers, S.D.4,00934840(8-8)
2014Philip Rivers, S.D.4,286311020(9-7)
2010Tom Brady, N.E.3,90036301(14-2)
2014• Ryan Tannehill, Mia.4,045273111(8-8)
2007Peyton Manning, Ind.4,04031-53(13-3)
2011Matt Ryan, Atl.4,17729842(10-6)
2009Tony Romo, Dall.4,483261051(11-5)
2007Drew Brees, N.O.4,42328521(7-9)
2009Tom Brady, N.E.4,39828441(10-6)
2011• Tony Romo, Dall.4,18431461(8-8)
2009Brett Favre, Minn.4,2023370(12-4)
2013• Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.4,26128991(8-8)
2009Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.4,32826822(9-7)
2009Philip Rivers, S.D.4,25428501(13-3)
2013Matt Ryan, Atl.4,51526550(4-12)
2007Derek Anderson, Cle.3,78729703(10-6)
2006Drew Brees, N.O.4,41826320(10-6)
2013Russell Wilson, Sea.3,357265391(13-3)
2010Eli Manning, NYG4,00231700(10-6)
2011• Mark Sanchez, NYJ3,474261036(8-8)
2006Jon Kitna, Det.4,208211562(3-13)
2007Brett Favre, G.B.4,15528120(13-3)
2007Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.3,154322042(10-6)
2006Michael Vick, Atl.2,474201,0392(7-9)
2010Matt Schaub, Hou.4,37024280(6-10)
2007Matt Hasselbeck, Sea.3,96628890(10-6)
2009Jay Cutler, Chi.3,666271731(7-9)
2008Peyton Manning, Ind.4,00227211(12-4)
2006• Marc Bulger, St.L.4,30124440(8-8)
2006• Carson Palmer, Cin.4,03528370(8-8)
2008Donovan McNabb, Phil.3,916231472(9-6-1)
2010Matt Ryan, Atl.3,705281220(13-3)
2008Matt Cassel, N.E.3,693212702(11-5)
2007Carson Palmer, Cin.4,13126100(7-9)
2010Josh Freeman, T.B.3,451253640(10-6)
2006Tom Brady, N.E.3,529241020(12-4)
2007• Kurt Warner, Ariz.3,41727151(8-8)
2008David Garrard, Jac.3,620153222(5-11)
2008Tony Romo, Dall.3,44826410(9-7)
2006• Brett Favre, G.B.3,88518291(8-8)
2006• Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.3,51318982(8-8)
2006Philip Rivers, S.D.3,38822490(14-2)

Somebody somewhere along the line – I think it was trusty Bill Rehor – said something along the lines of being concerned about really bad teams, rather than just teams that happen to finish perhaps 7-9, which can be just a missed field goal away from .500. So I have pulled out all players on teams finishing with fewer than 6 wins.

The Jaguars were the stars last year in this category, with Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson piling up big numbers in a lot of lost causes.

On this front, wide receivers have had more success putting up good numbers even while their team wasn’t winning games. Of these players (at all three positions) only eight were able to put up top-30 numbers (over the last 10 years), and five of those were wide receivers, including three in the top 15. I see only two quarterbacks in the top 70. With running backs, just 3 in the top 5.

Here are those players. With this group, the “Rk” number you see – the “Rank” – is where they rank out of the 100 players at their positions. 2013 Josh Gordon, for example, put up the 10th-best wide receiver numbers of the last 10 years.

TOP-100 PLAYERS ON REALLY BAD TEAMS
RkYearPosPlayerW-L
102013WRJosh Gordon, Clev.(4-12)
122012WRCalvin Johnson, Det.(4-12)
152015QB• Blake Bortles, Jac.(5-11)
152015WRAllen Robinson, Jac.(5-11)
252011RBMaurice Jones-Drew, Jac.(5-11)
262010WRBrandon Lloyd, Den.(4-12)
302008WRCalvin Johnson, Det.(0-16)
302014RBMatt Forte, Chi.(5-11)
352010RBPeyton Hillis, Cle.(5-11)
392012QB• Matthew Stafford, Det.(4-12)
562008RBMaurice Jones-Drew, Jac.(5-11)
662011WRPercy Harvin, Minn.(3-13)
712012RBJamaal Charles, K.C.(2-14)
722013RBAdrian Peterson, Min.(5-10-1)
732013QB• Matt Ryan, Atl.(4-12)
772012RBTrent Richardson, Cle.(5-11)
792006QB• Jon Kitna, Det.(3-13)
812009RBSteven Jackson, St.L.(1-15)
852007RBWillis McGahee, Balt.(5-11)
902006WRRoy Williams, Det.(3-13)
902007RBFrank Gore, S.F.(5-11)
922011RBAdrian Peterson, Min.(3-13)
962008QB• David Garrard, Jac.(5-11)
992010WRStevie Johnson, Buff.(4-12)

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