I saw a blurb go by confirming that Joe Flacco should be 100 percent and ready to roll when training camp opens. I think this means we can add him to the lengthy list of quarterback sleepers.
The Ravens have Marc Trestman as their offensive coordinator, and with him drawing up the plays, the ball is sure to be in the air early and often. Trestman makes extensive use of dumpoff passes to running backs, helping his quarterbacks pick up a lot of cheap yards.
Consider last year. Only eight teams passed for more yards than the Ravens, even while they were using four different quarterbacks. Flacco started the first 10 games but tore his ACL late in the game against the Rams. They used Matt Schaub for two games, but he was terrible so they went to Jimmy Clausen. Clausen was also lousy, so they went with Ryan Mallett for their final two. Previously he was released by the Texans.
The Ravens weren’t as impressive getting the ball in the end zone – just 21 TD passes, and that can’t be blamed on the Flacco injury. He threw only 14 in his 10 games (so he was on pace for just 22).
But Baltimore had all kinds of injury problems. The pass catchers almost certainly will be a lot better this year.
Wide receivers: In 2015, Steve Smith missed 9 games and Breshad Perriman didn’t play at all. Those guys are both healthy now, and they’ve bolstered this group by signing Mike Wallace. Wallace has played poorly in recent years, but he’s still fast and might add a nice deep-threat component to this team. They’ve also got Kamar Aiken, who emerged last year as a viable receiver.
Tight ends: In 2015 Crockett Gillmore missed six games, while Maxx Williams was just a rookie (and also missed two games). Entering their third and second seasons, those guys should be better now, and they’ve further fortified this group by signing Benjamin Watson. They should have two viable tight ends for most games. The group will be a real strength if Dennis Pitta can come back from multiple hip surgeries (Pitta is 31, and I’m not counting on him ever playing in a regular season game again).
Running backs: They’ve got a potpourri of backs, with Justin Forsett entering camp as their No. 1. Forsett is an undersized 30-year-old with limited speed, and I doubt he’ll be used in a full-time role. He’s not a very good receiver, which makes him a poor fit with this offense – wouldn’t surprise me if he doesn’t even make the team. Other than him, they have a cast of unheralded youngsters. They took Kenneth Dixon in the fourth round. They selected Javorius Allen in the fourth last year; he’s their best pass-catching running back by far. And they’ve got Terrance West, who was a third-round pick in 2014 but has been dumped by the Browns and Titans. West has enough talent and looked decent enough with Cleveland as a rookie, so I’m not ruling him out yet. Maybe they even get really lucky with Trent Richardson, who was out of the league last year but has lost some weight. This group is definitely a weakness, but I don’t see an effective runner here, which might help translate into more passing for Flacco.
Bottom line: I think the Ravens will probably rank in the top 10 in passing yards. Maybe the top dozen in TD passes as well. The Ravens threw only 21 TDs last year, but Trestman’s last two offenses in Chicago threw 32 and 30 TD passes. Is Flacco as good as Jay Cutler? I think he is.
Working against Flacco is his lack of production as a runner. He won’t give you anything there. He’s run for 9 TDs in his last 58 starts, but with that repaired ACL, I don’t think they’ll be using him on sneaks anymore.
Also working against Flacco is the reality that this is the deepest crop of quarterbacks ever. Even after 15 quarterbacks have been selected in typical drafts, we’re still going to be seeing names like Jameis Winston, Matthew Stafford, Marcus Mariota, Matt Ryan, Tony Romo, Ryan Tannehill and Tyrod Taylor. About 20th among quarterbacks is as high as you can get him, I think. But looks decent enough as a No. 2 quarterback in a 12-team league.
Here are the passing stats from last year, using 4 points for TD passes and 1 for every 20 passing yards.
| 2015 PASSING STATS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pct | Yds | TD | Int | Points |
| New Orleans | 69% | 5,205 | 32 | 12 | 388.3 |
| New England | 64% | 4,812 | 36 | 7 | 384.6 |
| Arizona | 63% | 4,775 | 35 | 13 | 378.8 |
| NY Giants | 63% | 4,500 | 36 | 14 | 369.0 |
| San Diego | 66% | 4,855 | 30 | 13 | 362.8 |
| Jacksonville | 58% | 4,428 | 35 | 18 | 361.4 |
| Detroit | 66% | 4,463 | 33 | 14 | 355.2 |
| Pittsburgh | 66% | 4,822 | 26 | 21 | 345.1 |
| Oakland | 62% | 4,129 | 34 | 14 | 342.5 |
| NY Jets | 60% | 4,170 | 33 | 16 | 340.5 |
| Seattle | 68% | 4,061 | 34 | 8 | 339.1 |
| Washington | 70% | 4,294 | 30 | 11 | 334.7 |
| Carolina | 60% | 3,873 | 35 | 10 | 333.7 |
| Cincinnati | 66% | 4,104 | 31 | 9 | 329.2 |
| Houston | 58% | 4,079 | 29 | 12 | 320.0 |
| Green Bay | 61% | 3,825 | 31 | 8 | 315.3 |
| Atlanta | 66% | 4,602 | 21 | 17 | 314.1 |
| Philadelphia | 65% | 4,341 | 23 | 18 | 309.1 |
| Miami | 62% | 4,231 | 24 | 12 | 307.6 |
| Baltimore | 63% | 4,449 | 21 | 21 | 306.5 |
| Indianapolis | 57% | 3,928 | 26 | 19 | 300.4 |
| Tennessee | 62% | 3,893 | 25 | 17 | 294.7 |
| Tampa Bay | 58% | 4,042 | 22 | 15 | 290.1 |
| Cleveland | 61% | 4,156 | 20 | 12 | 287.8 |
| Denver | 61% | 4,216 | 19 | 23 | 286.8 |
| Chicago | 64% | 3,843 | 21 | 12 | 276.2 |
| Buffalo | 63% | 3,600 | 23 | 9 | 272.0 |
| Kansas City | 66% | 3,493 | 20 | 7 | 254.7 |
| Dallas | 63% | 3,677 | 16 | 22 | 247.9 |
| San Francisco | 61% | 3,646 | 16 | 12 | 246.3 |
| Minnesota | 65% | 3,246 | 14 | 9 | 218.3 |
| St. Louis | 58% | 2,931 | 11 | 11 | 190.6 |
—Ian Allan