Scheduletron

November 02, 2016

Offenses vs. schedules

Weighing performance against teams' schedules so far

Let me try something a little different. A combination of scheduling and current production. That is, look at each team’s current offensive numbers, and weigh those against what has happened in their opponents’ other games.

That is, if a team’s eight opponents have allowed an average of 25 points per game, it stands to reason that an offense is doing well if it’s averaging 30. If it’s averaging only 20 points per game, that means it’s struggling (and not because of a hard schedule).

I’m breaking it into three categories. Offensive touchdowns. (I like this better than scoring because it removes the variable of touchdowns scored on takeaways and kick returns). Rushing yards. And passing yards.

TOUCHDOWNS VS. SCHEDULE
Rk	Team	Avg	Opp	Diff
1.	New Orleans	3.43	2.33	1.10
2.	Atlanta	3.38	2.29	1.08
3.	New England	3.25	2.24	1.01
4.	Pittsburgh	3.00	2.20	.80
5.	Dallas	3.00	2.29	.71
6.	Buffalo	2.88	2.21	.66
7.	Oakland	3.13	2.61	.52
8.	San Diego	2.88	2.42	.46
9.	Green Bay	2.71	2.27	.45
10.	Indianapolis	2.63	2.20	.42
11.	Carolina	2.71	2.42	.29
12.	San Francisco	2.43	2.16	.27
13.	Detroit	2.38	2.15	.22
14.	Tennessee	2.75	2.55	.20
15.	Arizona	2.63	2.43	.19
16.	Miami	2.29	2.30	-.01
17.	Tampa Bay	2.57	2.59	-.02
18.	Cincinnati	2.25	2.34	-.09
19.	Cleveland	2.13	2.28	-.16
20.	Washington	2.25	2.49	-.24
21.	Jacksonville	2.14	2.45	-.30
22.	Philadelphia	2.14	2.46	-.31
23.	Kansas City	2.14	2.64	-.50
24.	NY Jets	1.88	2.40	-.53
25.	Minnesota	1.57	2.16	-.58
26.	Denver	2.25	2.85	-.60
27.	NY Giants	1.71	2.37	-.66
28.	Los Angeles	1.71	2.38	-.66
29.	Houston	1.38	2.17	-.79
30.	Chicago	1.50	2.31	-.81
31.	Seattle	1.71	2.80	-1.09
32.	Baltimore	1.43	2.79	-1.36

Starting with offensive touchdowns, the three teams that jump out are the Saints, Falcons and Patriots. All are averaging over 3 touchdowns per game, and all have been able to be successful despite playing hard schedules. They’re all averaging over a touchdown more than the other teams that have played against those same defenses. Not a surprise, but reaffirms that those are the best offenses for 2016. Biggest surprise in the top 10: Buffalo, which is averaging two thirds of a touchdown more than other offenses playing the same teams.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Seahawks and the Ravens have been the biggest underperformers. Both are averaging well under 2 TDs per game, even while playing against plenty of soft defenses. The opponents of Seattle and Baltimore have allowed close to 3 TDs in their other games.

RUSHING VS. SCHEDULE
Rk	Team	Avg	Opp	Diff
1.	Dallas	164.9	107.7	57.2
2.	Buffalo	154.1	102.9	51.2
3.	Tennessee	152.3	117.2	35.1
4.	San Francisco	128.6	96.4	32.2
5.	Oakland	116.5	97.8	18.7
6.	Atlanta	111.5	98.6	12.9
7.	Miami	120.0	107.1	12.9
8.	Cleveland	114.0	101.8	12.2
9.	Houston	114.0	102.7	11.3
10.	Cincinnati	120.3	110.7	9.5
11.	Carolina	123.9	114.8	9.1
12.	Arizona	112.8	107.3	5.5
13.	Green Bay	105.3	100.7	4.6
14.	Washington	111.5	107.8	3.7
15.	Denver	104.8	102.0	2.7
16.	NY Jets	110.1	109.6	.5
17.	Kansas City	106.3	106.0	.3
18.	Philadelphia	109.4	111.1	-1.7
19.	Tampa Bay	113.4	115.2	-1.8
20.	New England	116.4	121.5	-5.1
21.	Pittsburgh	104.6	111.6	-7.1
22.	Indianapolis	99.6	108.4	-8.7
23.	New Orleans	88.1	99.0	-10.9
24.	Chicago	96.6	108.5	-11.8
25.	Detroit	85.5	108.5	-23.0
26.	San Diego	94.0	117.6	-23.6
27.	Jacksonville	72.6	99.1	-26.5
28.	Minnesota	71.9	100.2	-28.3
29.	NY Giants	70.3	102.2	-31.9
30.	Baltimore	86.3	119.2	-32.9
31.	Seattle	81.4	118.7	-37.2
32.	Los Angeles	79.9	121.7	-41.8

For rushing production, no surprise to see the Cowboys and Bills at the top. Those teams have been able to run the ball, even when playing against good run defenses. Both are averaging over 50 rushing yards more than other offenses playing against the same defenses. That is, when the Cowboys and Bills are playing against an opponent allowing 110 rushing yards per game, good chance that they’re still going to run for over 160 yards. Titans and 49ers are the other teams near the top, but a level back. Raiders come in at No. 5, but they have tailed off after big games in their first two.

Todd Gurley and the Rams, meanwhile, finish in last. Their schedule suggest they would be averaging about 122 rushing yards if they were an average running team, but they’re down under 80 yards anyway. They couldn’t even run the ball against the 49ers, who have allowed a 100-yard rusher in all six of their other games.

The Seahawks, Ravens, Giants and Vikings are all also underperformers, coming in 28-37 rushing yards below what an average offense might do.

PASSING VS. SCHEDULE
Rk	Team	Avg	Opp	Diff
1.	Atlanta	329.5	264.4	65.1
2.	New Orleans	338.0	274.0	64.0
3.	Washington	310.6	260.1	50.5
4.	Indianapolis	285.5	243.7	41.8
5.	Carolina	280.1	245.3	34.8
6.	Cincinnati	293.6	260.2	33.4
7.	NY Giants	283.4	252.9	30.5
8.	San Diego	285.6	256.8	28.8
9.	New England	276.9	251.0	25.9
10.	Chicago	268.9	247.3	21.6
11.	Pittsburgh	280.9	261.2	19.6
12.	Oakland	290.1	270.7	19.4
13.	Detroit	269.3	253.7	15.6
14.	Arizona	281.5	267.1	14.4
15.	Seattle	274.3	261.3	13.0
16.	Tampa Bay	253.7	256.0	-2.3
17.	Jacksonville	272.0	274.3	-2.3
18.	Dallas	253.3	257.5	-4.2
19.	Cleveland	258.1	263.7	-5.6
20.	Los Angeles	244.0	257.0	-13.0
21.	Baltimore	262.4	277.0	-14.6
22.	Green Bay	248.9	264.1	-15.2
23.	Kansas City	265.9	283.6	-17.7
24.	Minnesota	239.7	261.4	-21.7
25.	NY Jets	239.4	261.2	-21.9
26.	Tennessee	235.5	262.6	-27.1
27.	Miami	246.9	275.6	-28.7
28.	Houston	214.9	262.9	-48.0
29.	Denver	235.0	287.7	-52.7
30.	Philadelphia	218.0	272.5	-54.5
31.	Buffalo	190.6	259.9	-69.3
32.	San Francisco	174.3	274.3	-100.0

With passing, no surprise to see the Falcons and Saints again at the top. They’re moving the ball through the air, and it doesn’t matter who they’re playing.

Washington also grades out surprisingly well. Its seven games have been against defense that otherwise have allowed only 260 passing yards per game, but Washington is still up at 311.

The 49ers grade out as the worst of the worst. They’re opponents are allowing 274 passing yards per game, but San Francisco is coming in 100 yards short of that. That’s something to keep in mind for anybody entertaining the idea that Colin Kaepernick, at home against a really bad New Orleans defense, might suddenly pass for 250 yards and a couple of touchdowns.

Other passing offenses in that 50-plus range of underperformance include Buffalo, Philadelphia, Denver quarterbacks both old and new (the Texans and Broncos).

—Ian Allan

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