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Scheduletron

November 03, 2016

Upcoming schedules

Scheduling should give offenses of Dolphins, Broncos a boost.

If you want to win now, it makes sense to look at scheduling. It’s not only what a player or team can do, after all, about half of his production is tied to the opponent on the other side. So it’s logical to look at the opponents coming up on the schedule.

Based on how defenses have played thus far, the Dolphins, Broncos and Cowboys will see the softest opponents in the next month. They will all play their next four games against opponents that (on average) are allowing over 2.7 touchdowns per game. (2.7 per game translates to 43 touchdowns in a season, and that’s good – what we’re shooting for is to get up to 3-plus touchdowns.)

Four teams are down around 2 TDs per game. Washington (which is last by far), the two Ohio teams and Philadelphia. They’ll be tending to play tougher defenses. With Washington, it’s next four are against teams that collectively are on pace to allow under 29 touchdowns per season (a huge drop, relative to those 43-plus touchdown defenses).

On this charts, only offensive touchdowns are counted – rushing and passing. No weight is given to teams giving up touchdowns on interception or kick returns.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Scoring (next 4 games)
RkTeamTDs
1.Miami2.81
2.Denver2.75
3.Dallas2.71
4.Baltimore2.70
5.Los Angeles2.70
6.Arizona2.69
7.Pittsburgh2.67
8.Houston2.66
9.Carolina2.65
10.New Orleans2.63
11.Kansas City2.59
12.NY Giants2.58
13.Chicago2.54
14.Buffalo2.51
15.New England2.48
16.Tennessee2.41
17.Minnesota2.41
18.NY Jets2.30
19.Jacksonville2.29
20.San Diego2.29
21.Tampa Bay2.27
22.Indianapolis2.20
23.San Francisco2.20
24.Seattle2.18
25.Detroit2.18
26.Green Bay2.18
27.Atlanta2.16
28.Oakland2.16
29.Philadelphia2.13
30.Cleveland2.11
31.Cincinnati2.00
32.Washington1.80

If you’re looking for defenses that allow a lot of rushing yards, keep an eye on Arizona, New Orleans, Chicago and the Giants. They’re slated to play the easiest rushing schedules in the near future.

The Colts, Eagles, Browns and Washington project to play the hardest schedules for run defenses.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Rushing (next 4 games)
RkTeamYards
1.Arizona123.8
2.New Orleans121.7
3.Chicago119.1
4.NY Giants118.8
5.Denver118.4
6.Jacksonville116.9
7.Baltimore114.9
8.San Diego114.8
9.NY Jets114.1
10.Dallas114.0
11.Buffalo113.9
12.New England113.3
13.Carolina113.3
14.San Francisco112.5
15.Seattle112.5
16.Miami112.4
17.Minnesota111.8
18.Atlanta111.3
19.Oakland110.4
20.Kansas City109.4
21.Green Bay108.9
22.Pittsburgh108.3
23.Detroit105.1
24.Houston102.5
25.Cincinnati102.1
26.Los Angeles100.1
27.Tampa Bay99.3
28.Tennessee94.0
29.Cleveland93.8
30.Washington90.5
31.Philadelphia87.9
32.Indianapolis84.4

For passing, the Rams, Colts, Ravens and Titans should see the easiest schedules in the near future, all seeing defenses allowing over 275 passing yards per game (on average).

The hardest passing schedules project to belong to Washington, Oakland, Detroit and New Orleans.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Passing (next 4 games)
RkTeamYards
1.Los Angeles288.1
2.Indianapolis282.9
3.Baltimore278.5
4.Tennessee276.9
5.Carolina274.0
6.Philadelphia272.9
7.Pittsburgh271.4
8.Houston271.0
9.Denver270.6
10.Dallas268.4
11.Green Bay268.1
12.Miami267.9
13.Chicago267.7
14.Cleveland265.7
15.Tampa Bay265.2
16.NY Jets264.4
17.Buffalo262.9
18.NY Giants262.5
19.Seattle261.6
20.Kansas City257.8
21.New England257.6
22.Arizona254.8
23.San Francisco254.8
24.Minnesota254.8
25.San Diego253.7
26.Cincinnati251.9
27.Jacksonville248.8
28.Atlanta247.6
29.New Orleans246.8
30.Detroit246.3
31.Oakland243.6
32.Washington241.9

—Ian Allan

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