Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Is James Starks worth a flyer waiver claim? Why is Terrelle Pryor Sr. getting the respect of Terrelle Pryor Jr.? Key players coming off injured reserve. Players to target for 2017. And players who'll come up big in the fantasy playoffs.
Question 1
WOW ... zero respect for James Starks?!? Hope you are right since I listened, and did not add. You don't see Starks catching swing passes and getting goal-line carries?
michael gasper (Wilton, CT)
He’s had a nice career. He helped them win a Super Bowl following the 2010 season. But I think it’s over. He’s 30. He’s not a power back, he’s not fast, and he’s not explosive. Time moves on. If they were to release him, would any other team want to add him to its 53-man roster? I doubt it. He’s averaging 1.8 yards per carry. I think the Packers have settled on Ty Montgomery as their starting running back. They added Don Jackson off the practice squad a few weeks back. I don’t know much about Jackson, but after watching him handle a few carries, I think he might be better than Starks also.
Question 2
Why is Terrelle Pryor so far down the WR rankings every week? Your weekly re-draft ranking is between 40-50 yet doesn't come close to matching his production (top 10 in PPR production)?
David Barenborg (Mercer Island, WA)
He had some good games early in the season, especially against Miami and Tennessee. I love the progress he’s made transitioning to wide receiver. But ultimately he’s stuck on a terrible team with a carousel of scatter-armed quarterbacks. And is he even the best wide receiver on his own team? (I think he is, but Corey Coleman potentially could carve out a much bigger role in that offense). With these rankings, keep in mind they are not a measure of what players have done. They are an expectation of what they will do in the remaining games. And with that in mind, let’s not get too enamored in what Pryor did a month or two ago. Looking at the last four games for each player, I see 35 other wide receivers who have scored more points. I think I’ve been a little low on Pryor – maybe I’m still too low – but I don’t think his ranking is too far out of whack.
Question 3
What have you heard, if anything, regarding the return of Ameer Abdullah or Adrian Peterson? Minnesota's O line looks pretty pathetic. Would Peterson be a difference maker even if he returns.
DANIEL GOODLETT (Bonita, CA)
Abdullah tore a ligament in his foot in September. At that time, the Lions believed he would miss the rest of the season. I haven’t seen anything that indicates their thinking has changed, so I don’t see Abdullah as really being worth a roster spot in a typical fantasy league. Peterson, on the other hand, is supposedly on track to return. He’s eligible to come off injured reserve after Sunday’s game. Looks pretty likely that he’ll return in Week 11, 12 or 13. They have all kinds of offensive line issues right now, as you point out, but they’re playing against a couple of lesser run defenses in Weeks 14-15 – Jacksonville and Indianapolis. Peterson might be able to help your team in those weeks.
Question 4
For those of us who have used your information and assembled teams with gaudy records (one team is 9-0, the other is 7-2), the key is to identify those players who will do best during weeks 14 and 15. We want to make sure we stockpile them or trade for them so that we can power through the playoffs to fantasy glory. Who would you recommend we target for those two crucial weeks? I am assuming people who are playing NO and SF those weeks? But who are those folks who hold the key to great matchups?
Andrew Napoli (Springfield, VA)
There are four teams that are allowing over 29 points per game: 49ers, Browns, Saints and Bucs. If you want to lower the bar to 28 points, then add in the Falcons and Colts. They play the following teams in Week 14-16: San Francisco (Jets, @Atl., @L.A.), Cleveland (Cin., @Buff., S.D.), New Orleans (@T.B., @Ariz., T.B.), Tampa Bay (N.O., @Dall., @N.O.), Atlanta (@L.A., S.F., @Car.), Indianapolis (Hou., @Min., @Oak.). Notice that the Bucs and Saints are playing each other twice in this window. There are two remarkably bad run defenses right now. The two franchises originally hailing from the All-America Football Conference – Browns and 49ers. So I am very interested in running backs working against those defenses. For Week 14, that’s Matt Forte, Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard. In Week 15, it’s LeSean McCoy and the two Atlanta backs (Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman). In Week 16, it’s Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon. Some of those backs, I think, will tilt the results of a lot of fantasy playoff games.
Question 5
First off, thanks as always for the fantastic work. Been a subscriber and loyal customer since 1989, and have every back issue since then. You guys are the best. Just an FYI on the spelling of the first name of the Seahawks kicker. I noticed that you guys are spelling it as "Stephen", probably as a result of a story that was circulated a few weeks ago that said it was misspelled when he was in college. However, I also noticed that neither the NFL nor the Seahawks have changed the spelling, as both are still using "Steven." Since I have the opportunity to work in the press box during the home games, I asked the Director of Football Communications, Lane Gammel, about the spelling, and he told me that Hauschka prefers "Steven” so, you might want to consider sticking with "Steven" as well.
BRAD CUMMINGS (Seattle, WA)
I’ve had an eye on this, waiting to see how it plays out. The Seattle Times is a big-time publication, and they’ve been going with Stephen. When they originally addressed the issue, they indicated Hauschka seemed indifferent. His name is legally Stephen, but he didn’t bother correcting anybody when he was listed as Steven as a fourth-string walk-on at North Carolina State. Since he never said anything, the name carried over to NFL teams. The article indicates he’s never asked the team to list him differently. “They knew last year but they didn’t change it,’’ Hauschka says. Sounds like your information might be more current, and that Hauschka might be settling on just sticking with Steven. “It’s my stage name,’’ he said in the Times article. “Leave it that way.’’
Question 6
What are some players in a keeper league I should start looking at picking up that don't have much value this year but will be valuable next year.
ERIC SCOLNICK (Redmond, WA)
You would start, I suppose, with the rookies, especially running backs. Devontae Booker, Kenneth Dixon and Paul Perkins, I think, are the front-runners to be the best running backs on their teams next year. Maybe Wendell Smallwood. I am confident Hunter Henry will be a top-10 tight end next year. I don’t see any other tight ends who look like safe choices to ever develop into top-15 options. With the wide receivers, I don’t think any of the ones selected in the first three rounds look like probably flops right now. Corey Coleman, Will Fuller, Laquon Treadwell, Josh Doctson, Sterling Shepard, Michael Thomas, Tyler Boyd, Braxton Miller and Leonte Carroo have generally done what they’re supposed to do. Doctson hasn’t been a factor, but I expect he’ll start next year and could be really good. With the quarterbacks, Wentz and Prescott look great, of course. Goff hasn’t shown anything yet. Lynch is still very much in the mix, I think, to move into the top spot for the Broncos – much better physical ability than Trevor Siemian.
Question 7
In your Aug. 31 Mailbag you kindly answered my questions regarding your thoughts on popular media fantasy analysts Fabiano, Berry and most importantly Kay Adams. You said essentially that you diligently focus on studying game film and obtaining player/team updates to provide the best product you can. You do not watch fantasy shows and did not know who Kay Adams was. Though I was partly impressed, I was equally shocked. I appreciate your intense study of the "product", but wouldn't some study of your "competition" be worthwhile. Surely you know that most, if not all, of your customer base are watching these shows. Don't you want to know what others in your field, doing what you do, are concluding and putting out there? Perhaps there is some information/insight obtainable from these sources which could add to your own (hermit-like sounding) focused analysis. Most importantly, have you learned who Kay Adams is? Isn't she at a minimum, likeable? How about Melisa Stark as a "crush" or Elliot Harrison if that's your liking? Are you oblivious to what we watch? Are you in a basement watching game film 24/7? I am a long-time premium subscriber who follows your advice and rankings almost religiously and will continue to do so. I just would like to know if you are aware of the overall fantasy universe and the greater marketplace. Are you in your basement studying game film on our behalf 24/7? That's how you sounded. I'm worried about you. Perhaps you need to get out more.
ALBERT CHAPMAN (Naples, FL)
I spent about 70 hours a week on this stuff, so I have to carefully think about how I want to allocate my resources. There’s only so much time. I would like to watch more college football than I do, for example. It would be good to fit in more of those games. On Wednesday and Thursday, it’s always nice to target a couple of teams that you would like to look at more thoroughly. I’m a runner. I’ve run marathons, often running six days a week – it’s a good way to start the day. Sometimes when running, I will listen to podcasts. Football analysts I will listen to include Greg Cosell, Mike Lombardi, Andrew Brandt, Mike Holmgren and player interviews on the Dan Patrick podcast. None of those guys are as easy on the eye as Kay Adams or Melissa Stark, but that’s the kind of information I’m looking for.
Question 8
Is it time to trade Christine Michael? I already have Bell, Ware and Charcandrick West. Was starting Michael but was wondering if I should try and move him.
BRIAN ROWELL (Saint Johns, MI)
I don’t think the Seahawks will get their running back turned around. They’re at the halfway point of their season and at on pace for club-record lows in rushing. The offensive line isn’t good enough. They’ve got Thomas Rawls coming back soon, so that’s now a three-man backfield – Michael, Rawls and C.J. Prosise (as a third-down back). If you can find anyone looking to take Michael off your hands, go for it.
Question 9
Would you drop guys like, Robert Kelley, J.J. Nelson and Paul Perkins in order to handcuff your top RBs with DeAngelo Williams and Andre Ellington? Or do you like their upside enough to risk it?
James Crawford (Atlanta, GA)
I’d keep those guys. Kelley is starting for Washington. Nelson probably will be Arizona’s 2nd-best receiver in the second half of the season. And Perkins might be the Giants’ best running back before long. I believe I’d hang onto those guys. In this case, anyway. Williams just underwent knee surgery; he’ll be out for 2-3 weeks. Ellington is Arizona’s No. 2 tailback for now, but Chris Johnson could be brought back off injured reserve for Week 13. At that point, it could be more of a committee situation in the event David Johnson gets hurt.
Question 10
With trade deadlines coming up this weekend and fantasy playoffs right around the corner. What players or teams would you target in weeks 13-16?
Chris Winder (San Ramon, CA)
With making trades, you want that combination of a player not being coveted and maybe be really good in that small window. Doug Martin comes to mind. He’s a lesser back right now – maybe even landed on some waiver wires. But he’ll be back soon, and he’ll get to play a pair against the Saints in there. San Francisco has a remarkably bad run defense, so you look at backs who’ll work against that defense – Jordan Howard, Matt Forte, Falcons and Todd Gurley in Weeks 13-16. The Houston Texans haven’t been able to fix their run defense, so the Bengals are another team with multiple games against bad run defenses (Weeks 14 & 16 against Browns and Texans), so you can think about Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard. Bills in Weeks 15-16 are at home against Browns and Dolphins, so I am very interested in LeSean McCoy those weeks.
Question 11
I was looking at the standings and noticed "Net points". Interesting reading, as a stat, at the halfway mark. AFC West teams are all PLUS, while AFC South is all MINUS. The Texans who lead the division at 5-3 are minus 30.
Jim Backstrom (Henderson, NV)
I think Houston will fade. It has too many problems: no quarterback, poor offensive line, can’t stop the run. All of its wins are at home, so it’s playing 5 of its final 8 on the road. That team should be overtaken by Colts, Titans – or both. I’m kind of thinking Houston will lose this week in Jacksonville.
Question 12
As people put in their bids for Dion Lewis and Ladarius Green, I'm wondering if there are any other injured players who might come back and play a role in the latter part of the season. With the new IR rules it's hard to keep track of everyone. Watkins? Peterson? Abdullah? Are any of these guys worth stashing on the end of my roster (particularly in one league where we play 17 games with no playoffs)? And is there anyone I'm forgetting? Thanks as always!
BILL REHOR (Culver City, CA)
Peterson is definitely coming back. He should be rostered. Watkins, I think, is also worth a spot. They’re hopeful they’ll get him back. Far from a sure thing, but it might happen. And if they can get Watkins back to anywhere close to full strength, he could help your team. Chicago’s GM, Ryan Pace, said a few weeks back that he was confident Kevin White would be ready to return in Week 13, but I don’t know that White will make much of an impact (is he even better right now than Cameron Meredith). C.J. Anderson and Eddie Lacy are late-season guys. No interest in Chris Johnson.
Question 13
Sorry, not fantasy related, but you know football, and NFL isn't going to answer this one. The NFL makes teams do a PAT, even if time has expired after a last play TD, and it has nothing to do with the outcome of the game. If you're in Las Vegas, and bet a team +8.5, and it goes to overtime, I suspect you are still not safe. Let's say team A kicks a field goal in OT, and kicks off. The other team gets the ball, and throws an interception. Like the idiot who buried Marty Schottenheimer for the Chargers, against the Patriots, the ball is returned, this time for a score. That would count, right? You would lose, as the winning margin is 9? They would not do a PAT though, I would think.
JOHN MACHO (Elko New Mrkt, MN)
This is correct. A 9-point win in overtime is now possible. Also keep in mind that it’s now possible to score 2 points by returning a blocked extra point. So when a team scores a touchdown to go up by 1 or 2 points with no time remaining, I believe you will see most teams decline to attempt an extra point. The safer play is to just take a knee in that situation.
Question 14
I am in a 12-team PPR league and despite having scored the 2nd most points in the league, sitting at 5-4 battling for a playoff spot. I've been offered Drew Brees, T.Y. Hilton and Phillip Dorsett for Luck, Miller and Marshall. Am I giving up too much to get away from Luck? Should I make the deal?
Anthony Cillis (Lagrangeville, NY)
On my board, Brees is worth about a half point more than Luck. Those guys are pretty similar. With Brees, however, you do pick up an extra game (Luck has a bye this week), and you also have a couple of Tampa Bay game coming up, which are really appealing. The bigger bonus, I think would be getting out Brandon Marshall (the Jets haven’t been able to get things going) and replacing him with Hilton. I think Hilton’s about 3 points per week better. That’s a big upgrade. These upgrades, of course, have to be financed. Dorsett is a lesser player – a guy you might choose to release later on – and you would need to give up Lamar Miller, who’s in general a top-15 running back.
Question 15
I'm carrying Beckham, Landry, Fitzgerald, Jeffrey and Witten/Rudolph. Is it a wise move to trade Beckham for Gronk, or better to stand put? On the same token, what would be a fair offer for McCoy out of those WR's?
Bill Petilli (Harrison, NY)
I think Gronkowski will put up slightly better numbers than Beckham in the second half of the season. In the final eight games, I’ve got a difference of about 80 yards and just over one touchdown. With LeSean McCoy, keep in mind that in Weeks 15-16, he’s playing home games against the Browns and Dolphins, which both rank in the bottom-3 in run defense. McCoy could really help in those weeks.