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Updated strength of schedule

Schedule could help determine AFC South

Strength of Schedule isn’t everything, but it can be a contributing factor. It can help explain what’s going on – and what will happen. And looking at the numbers after Week 12, teams like Miami, Arizona, Houston, Kansas City and the Giants come to mind.

Looking first at schedules that have been played so far (that is, the 11-12 games each team has already played). Miami has been rolling off wins, but has benefited from playing the league’s easiest schedule so far, with opponents going a combined 46-64-2 in their other games.

Arizona has played the league’s 2nd-easiest schedule, it really can have no excuse for its disappointing 4-6-1 record. They simply haven’t gotten the job done.

Dallas and New England also have benefited from playing easier schedules, and not that with the records you see below, those don’t include each team’s actual games. That is, Dallas shows at 47-61-3, but the record would be a league-worst 48-71-3 if you also included those teams being 1-10 against the Cowboys. (I leave those out because otherwise everything becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy – teams with winning records seem to have easy schedules and teams with losing records tend to look like they’ve been victimized by hard schedules).

San Diego, Washington, Houston and Cincinnati have played the league’s hardest schedules. The Texans are particularly notable because the team they are most battling with for the AFC South title, Tennessee, have had one of the easier schedules. Houston is 6-5 against opponents that have gone 61-50. Tennessee is 6-6 while going against teams that have gone just 53-68.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 1-12)
TeamWLTPct
Miami46642.420
Arizona48620.436
Dallas47613.437
New England47613.437
Baltimore48622.438
Tennessee53680.438
Detroit49611.446
NY Giants49602.450
Buffalo50573.468
Los Angeles51572.473
NY Jets52563.482
Indianapolis54580.482
Seattle54560.491
Kansas City55550.500
Minnesota55542.505
Jacksonville56550.505
Carolina55541.505
Tampa Bay55532.509
San Francisco49473.510
Chicago57540.514
Green Bay58521.527
Cleveland63562.529
Pittsburgh52462.530
Philadelphia58512.532
New Orleans58511.532
Oakland60510.541
Denver59501.541
Atlanta59492.545
Cincinnati61500.550
Houston61500.550
Washington62490.559
San Diego63480.568

Shifting gears, let’s look at the closing schedule for each team – the combined records of teams they’ll see in Weeks 13-17.

The Seahawks have by far the league’s easiest schedule (though for fantasy purposes, note that 1-10 San Francisco comes in Week 17).

Then come the previously mentioned Texans. They’ve played a hard schedule so far, but their schedule the rest of the way projects to be the 2nd-easiest in the league.

The Giants, Kansas City and Denver are all trying to work their way into the postseason – they’re all bubble teams – and they’ll have to contend with some of the league’s hardest schedules in these final five weeks.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 13-17)
TeamWLTPct
Seattle18361.336
Houston21341.384
Atlanta22330.400
Cincinnati23330.411
San Francisco23320.418
Washington23311.427
Minnesota24310.436
Buffalo25310.446
Chicago25291.464
Cleveland20231.466
Indianapolis26290.473
San Diego27290.482
New England27280.491
NY Jets28270.509
Green Bay28261.518
Miami28261.518
Pittsburgh28261.518
Tennessee23210.523
Tampa Bay29260.527
Los Angeles28252.527
Jacksonville30260.536
Detroit30250.545
Arizona29242.545
Baltimore30241.555
New Orleans30241.555
Oakland31240.564
Dallas32230.582
Carolina31222.582
Denver34220.607
Kansas City34220.607
Philadelphia33202.618
NY Giants34201.627

—Ian Allan

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