Strength of Schedule isn’t everything, but it can be a contributing factor. It can help explain what’s going on – and what will happen. And looking at the numbers after Week 12, teams like Miami, Arizona, Houston, Kansas City and the Giants come to mind.
Looking first at schedules that have been played so far (that is, the 11-12 games each team has already played). Miami has been rolling off wins, but has benefited from playing the league’s easiest schedule so far, with opponents going a combined 46-64-2 in their other games.
Arizona has played the league’s 2nd-easiest schedule, it really can have no excuse for its disappointing 4-6-1 record. They simply haven’t gotten the job done.
Dallas and New England also have benefited from playing easier schedules, and not that with the records you see below, those don’t include each team’s actual games. That is, Dallas shows at 47-61-3, but the record would be a league-worst 48-71-3 if you also included those teams being 1-10 against the Cowboys. (I leave those out because otherwise everything becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy – teams with winning records seem to have easy schedules and teams with losing records tend to look like they’ve been victimized by hard schedules).
San Diego, Washington, Houston and Cincinnati have played the league’s hardest schedules. The Texans are particularly notable because the team they are most battling with for the AFC South title, Tennessee, have had one of the easier schedules. Houston is 6-5 against opponents that have gone 61-50. Tennessee is 6-6 while going against teams that have gone just 53-68.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 1-12) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Miami | 46 | 64 | 2 | .420 |
Arizona | 48 | 62 | 0 | .436 |
Dallas | 47 | 61 | 3 | .437 |
New England | 47 | 61 | 3 | .437 |
Baltimore | 48 | 62 | 2 | .438 |
Tennessee | 53 | 68 | 0 | .438 |
Detroit | 49 | 61 | 1 | .446 |
NY Giants | 49 | 60 | 2 | .450 |
Buffalo | 50 | 57 | 3 | .468 |
Los Angeles | 51 | 57 | 2 | .473 |
NY Jets | 52 | 56 | 3 | .482 |
Indianapolis | 54 | 58 | 0 | .482 |
Seattle | 54 | 56 | 0 | .491 |
Kansas City | 55 | 55 | 0 | .500 |
Minnesota | 55 | 54 | 2 | .505 |
Jacksonville | 56 | 55 | 0 | .505 |
Carolina | 55 | 54 | 1 | .505 |
Tampa Bay | 55 | 53 | 2 | .509 |
San Francisco | 49 | 47 | 3 | .510 |
Chicago | 57 | 54 | 0 | .514 |
Green Bay | 58 | 52 | 1 | .527 |
Cleveland | 63 | 56 | 2 | .529 |
Pittsburgh | 52 | 46 | 2 | .530 |
Philadelphia | 58 | 51 | 2 | .532 |
New Orleans | 58 | 51 | 1 | .532 |
Oakland | 60 | 51 | 0 | .541 |
Denver | 59 | 50 | 1 | .541 |
Atlanta | 59 | 49 | 2 | .545 |
Cincinnati | 61 | 50 | 0 | .550 |
Houston | 61 | 50 | 0 | .550 |
Washington | 62 | 49 | 0 | .559 |
San Diego | 63 | 48 | 0 | .568 |
Shifting gears, let’s look at the closing schedule for each team – the combined records of teams they’ll see in Weeks 13-17.
The Seahawks have by far the league’s easiest schedule (though for fantasy purposes, note that 1-10 San Francisco comes in Week 17).
Then come the previously mentioned Texans. They’ve played a hard schedule so far, but their schedule the rest of the way projects to be the 2nd-easiest in the league.
The Giants, Kansas City and Denver are all trying to work their way into the postseason – they’re all bubble teams – and they’ll have to contend with some of the league’s hardest schedules in these final five weeks.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 13-17) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Seattle | 18 | 36 | 1 | .336 |
Houston | 21 | 34 | 1 | .384 |
Atlanta | 22 | 33 | 0 | .400 |
Cincinnati | 23 | 33 | 0 | .411 |
San Francisco | 23 | 32 | 0 | .418 |
Washington | 23 | 31 | 1 | .427 |
Minnesota | 24 | 31 | 0 | .436 |
Buffalo | 25 | 31 | 0 | .446 |
Chicago | 25 | 29 | 1 | .464 |
Cleveland | 20 | 23 | 1 | .466 |
Indianapolis | 26 | 29 | 0 | .473 |
San Diego | 27 | 29 | 0 | .482 |
New England | 27 | 28 | 0 | .491 |
NY Jets | 28 | 27 | 0 | .509 |
Green Bay | 28 | 26 | 1 | .518 |
Miami | 28 | 26 | 1 | .518 |
Pittsburgh | 28 | 26 | 1 | .518 |
Tennessee | 23 | 21 | 0 | .523 |
Tampa Bay | 29 | 26 | 0 | .527 |
Los Angeles | 28 | 25 | 2 | .527 |
Jacksonville | 30 | 26 | 0 | .536 |
Detroit | 30 | 25 | 0 | .545 |
Arizona | 29 | 24 | 2 | .545 |
Baltimore | 30 | 24 | 1 | .555 |
New Orleans | 30 | 24 | 1 | .555 |
Oakland | 31 | 24 | 0 | .564 |
Dallas | 32 | 23 | 0 | .582 |
Carolina | 31 | 22 | 2 | .582 |
Denver | 34 | 22 | 0 | .607 |
Kansas City | 34 | 22 | 0 | .607 |
Philadelphia | 33 | 20 | 2 | .618 |
NY Giants | 34 | 20 | 1 | .627 |
—Ian Allan