Before Week 13 kicks off, I wanted to check in with another look at strength of schedule – a more detailed look than what I typically throw together on Monday night. For this one, I’m looking at rushing, passing and touchdowns, and slicing it for both leagues ending in Week 16 and in Week 17.
Starting with touchdowns, the numbers suggest the Bears, Chargers and Falcons will play the softest schedules the rest of the way. These teams are playing defenses tending to allow almost 3 TDs per game. (And with touchdowns here, I’m not including kick returns and takeaways – just offensive touchdowns.)
The Jaguars, Packers, Cowboys and Ravens project to play the hardest schedules. Their opponents, on average, are allowing about 2 TDs per game.
On this chart (and all the charts), the teams are sorted by the average for Weeks 13-16. If you also use Week 17, that data is provided.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Off touchdowns | ||
---|---|---|
Team | 13-16 | 13-17 |
Chicago | 2.91 | 2.65 |
San Diego | 2.85 | 2.72 |
Atlanta | 2.70 | 2.71 |
Buffalo | 2.67 | 2.57 |
NY Jets | 2.66 | 2.58 |
Houston | 2.66 | 2.58 |
Los Angeles | 2.64 | 2.51 |
Carolina | 2.61 | 2.62 |
Tampa Bay | 2.61 | 2.58 |
Minnesota | 2.57 | 2.53 |
Cleveland | 2.55 | 2.43 |
Kansas City | 2.52 | 2.58 |
Oakland | 2.50 | 2.36 |
San Francisco | 2.48 | 2.49 |
Seattle | 2.45 | 2.69 |
Cincinnati | 2.45 | 2.39 |
New Orleans | 2.43 | 2.56 |
Arizona | 2.39 | 2.42 |
Pittsburgh | 2.32 | 2.29 |
Philadelphia | 2.30 | 2.27 |
Detroit | 2.25 | 2.36 |
Denver | 2.24 | 2.38 |
Indianapolis | 2.23 | 2.29 |
Washington | 2.23 | 2.13 |
NY Giants | 2.20 | 2.31 |
New England | 2.18 | 2.20 |
Tennessee | 2.18 | 2.18 |
Miami | 2.16 | 2.13 |
Baltimore | 2.11 | 2.20 |
Dallas | 2.11 | 2.11 |
Green Bay | 2.00 | 2.09 |
Jacksonville | 1.97 | 2.12 |
For rushing, the numbers suggest the Jets, Bills and Falcons will see the softest defenses the rest of the way – teams that on average are allowing over 120 rushing yards per game. The Titans are also up there (and that’s a team that can run the ball).
The Bucs, Lions and Dolphins project to see the toughest run defenses.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Rushing | ||
---|---|---|
Team | 13-16 | 13-17 |
NY Jets | 129.9 | 126.8 |
Buffalo | 121.2 | 114.1 |
Atlanta | 121.2 | 116.8 |
Chicago | 120.6 | 116.5 |
Tennessee | 119.4 | 116.4 |
Los Angeles | 117.6 | 113.9 |
San Diego | 113.1 | 114.8 |
Arizona | 112.0 | 112.1 |
Cincinnati | 111.6 | 104.2 |
Houston | 111.1 | 107.3 |
Oakland | 110.5 | 112.4 |
Pittsburgh | 110.0 | 103.0 |
Cleveland | 108.2 | 105.0 |
New Orleans | 108.2 | 106.4 |
Denver | 107.5 | 109.4 |
Baltimore | 107.5 | 110.1 |
Kansas City | 107.1 | 103.6 |
San Francisco | 105.0 | 106.5 |
Jacksonville | 105.0 | 107.3 |
Green Bay | 102.8 | 102.8 |
Indianapolis | 102.5 | 105.3 |
Dallas | 101.9 | 102.1 |
Carolina | 101.5 | 104.3 |
Minnesota | 101.3 | 101.7 |
Philadelphia | 100.3 | 96.5 |
New England | 98.2 | 105.0 |
Washington | 96.1 | 94.7 |
NY Giants | 95.6 | 99.8 |
Seattle | 95.4 | 110.6 |
Miami | 93.4 | 94.6 |
Detroit | 93.2 | 92.8 |
Tampa Bay | 92.4 | 89.8 |
And finally, we’ve got passing. The Bucs, Chargers and Lions project to see opponents allowing a lot of passing yards. (The Bucs are seeing one-dimensional defenses, because they graded out as the worst for run defenses).
The Titans, Jaguars and Packers will see the defenses that thus far have tended to allow the fewest passing yards.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Passing | ||
---|---|---|
Team | 13-16 | 13-17 |
Tampa Bay | 286.0 | 287.3 |
San Diego | 278.0 | 277.2 |
Detroit | 277.1 | 277.5 |
Carolina | 275.9 | 274.4 |
Oakland | 273.9 | 261.4 |
NY Giants | 270.0 | 269.9 |
Kansas City | 269.5 | 272.4 |
Los Angeles | 269.3 | 258.0 |
Buffalo | 268.9 | 270.0 |
Minnesota | 268.8 | 265.8 |
Pittsburgh | 268.8 | 263.0 |
Chicago | 267.8 | 259.6 |
San Francisco | 267.5 | 262.4 |
Atlanta | 267.4 | 271.0 |
NY Jets | 265.9 | 262.1 |
Arizona | 263.6 | 259.3 |
Cleveland | 262.8 | 266.8 |
Philadelphia | 261.7 | 267.2 |
Denver | 260.9 | 265.3 |
Houston | 260.9 | 266.2 |
Baltimore | 260.3 | 259.7 |
Dallas | 259.1 | 257.5 |
Seattle | 256.7 | 257.6 |
Cincinnati | 254.7 | 251.8 |
New Orleans | 252.8 | 261.5 |
Washington | 252.6 | 258.0 |
Indianapolis | 251.2 | 244.2 |
Miami | 243.6 | 248.1 |
New England | 242.0 | 242.7 |
Green Bay | 238.8 | 243.3 |
Jacksonville | 236.6 | 247.5 |
Tennessee | 233.9 | 230.6 |
—Ian Allan