As we get ready for the final quarter of the regular season, let’s pause to look at Strength of Schedule. Based on how teams have been playing, it looks like the Atlanta Falcons have by far the league’s easiest remaining schedule.
Atlanta’s final four games are against teams that currently are a combined 14-34. Five other teams have schedules that are at least 10 games under .500 – Seahawks, 49ers, Vikings, Bills and Texans. Houston, of course, is in that three-way tie for the AFC South lead.
Denver is on the outside looking it, and it’s remaining schedule is the hardest in the league, with the Titans, Raiders, Patriots and Kansas City sitting at a combined 35-13. Three other teams have schedules that are 10 games over .500 – Kansas City, Philadelphia and the Giants.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Wins (Weeks 14-17) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Atlanta | 14 | 34 | 0 | .292 |
Seattle | 16 | 31 | 1 | .344 |
San Francisco | 17 | 31 | 0 | .354 |
Minnesota | 17 | 31 | 0 | .354 |
Buffalo | 17 | 31 | 0 | .354 |
Houston | 18 | 29 | 1 | .385 |
Washington | 20 | 28 | 0 | .417 |
Cincinnati | 20 | 28 | 0 | .417 |
San Diego | 23 | 25 | 0 | .479 |
Los Angeles | 21 | 25 | 2 | .458 |
Cleveland | 22 | 25 | 1 | .469 |
NY Jets | 24 | 24 | 0 | .500 |
Jacksonville | 24 | 24 | 0 | .500 |
Indianapolis | 24 | 24 | 0 | .500 |
Tennessee | 25 | 23 | 0 | .521 |
Tampa Bay | 25 | 23 | 0 | .521 |
New England | 25 | 23 | 0 | .521 |
Miami | 24 | 23 | 1 | .510 |
Arizona | 24 | 23 | 1 | .510 |
Pittsburgh | 25 | 22 | 1 | .531 |
Green Bay | 25 | 22 | 1 | .531 |
Carolina | 25 | 22 | 1 | .531 |
New Orleans | 26 | 21 | 1 | .552 |
Chicago | 26 | 21 | 1 | .552 |
Baltimore | 26 | 21 | 1 | .552 |
Oakland | 28 | 20 | 0 | .583 |
Detroit | 28 | 20 | 0 | .583 |
Dallas | 28 | 20 | 0 | .583 |
Kansas City | 29 | 19 | 0 | .604 |
NY Giants | 30 | 17 | 1 | .635 |
Philadelphia | 32 | 15 | 1 | .677 |
Denver | 35 | 13 | 0 | .729 |
If we instead look at just points allowed, the Falcons, Panthers and Chargers on paper should play the easiest schedules. Atlanta’s final four are against teams currently allowing an average of 26.7 points per game – over a point more than any other schedule.
The Packers, Ravens, Eagles and Steelers project to play the hardest schedules.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Points (Weeks 14-17) | |
---|---|
Team | W |
Atlanta | 26.73 |
Carolina | 25.65 |
San Diego | 25.29 |
Tampa Bay | 25.27 |
Minnesota | 24.94 |
Seattle | 24.67 |
Houston | 24.56 |
Buffalo | 24.44 |
San Francisco | 24.40 |
New Orleans | 24.02 |
Los Angeles | 23.85 |
Kansas City | 23.81 |
NY Jets | 23.48 |
Oakland | 22.94 |
Cleveland | 22.67 |
Indianapolis | 22.46 |
Jacksonville | 22.35 |
Washington | 22.29 |
Arizona | 22.21 |
Chicago | 22.04 |
Cincinnati | 21.92 |
Denver | 21.75 |
Tennessee | 21.69 |
Miami | 21.65 |
Detroit | 21.56 |
New England | 21.27 |
NY Giants | 21.23 |
Dallas | 21.15 |
Pittsburgh | 20.29 |
Philadelphia | 20.08 |
Baltimore | 19.73 |
Green Bay | 19.25 |
—Ian Allan