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Finding matchups

Analyzing the late-season schedule to find favorable matchups

We’re in December. Only 25 percent of the NFL season is left. For most, the final quarter of that 25 percent don’t matter, and they’re not much concerned with Week 16 either. They’re scrambling to find specific players for specific weeks.

You weigh the abilities of players against the defenses they’re working against.

What follows is a brief overview of the final month. It was created by averaging the current production of each offense against the defenses they will be facing.

If you follow such a process, which can be useful for creating a first blush estimate of how teams might perform, only two offenses project to average at least 3 touchdowns over the rest of the season. (That’s offensive touchdowns, setting aside kick returns and takeaways). The Falcons and Saints. Next in line would be the Chargers, Raiders and Cowboys. (Note that these numbers have not been worked – no discount on Dallas to account for the possibility of them resting players in Weeks 16-17).

The Texans, Ravens and Rams project to score the fewest touchdowns, down around 2 per week for those offenses. (Again, the numbers haven’t been worked on, so no weight for the Ravens playing their best offensive game of the season last week, nor for having a good history against the opponent they’ll play this week – New England).

MATCHUP ESTIMATES TOUCHDOWNS (Weeks 14-17)
Team14151617OTDs
Atlanta21333.13
New Orleans16213.05
San Diego351102.85
Oakland634172.75
Dallas124762.74
Pittsburgh881322.72
Buffalo1421082.72
Carolina796122.67
Tennessee167872.67
New England914952.64
Indianapolis13205132.53
Arizona111021112.51
Tampa Bay101711142.50
Seattle15162742.44
Green Bay20131992.41
Washington191214212.38
NY Giants241823152.30
San Francisco221116272.30
Cincinnati42425252.27
Miami251515232.26
Denver232822162.25
NY Jets52231242.22
Kansas City182532192.17
Detroit273126182.14
Jacksonville322124202.14
Philadelphia172730262.09
Cleveland262618282.09
Chicago281917322.07
Minnesota302320292.07
Los Angeles213212312.05
Baltimore312929222.00
Houston293028301.97

Looking at just rushing, the teams near the top are what you would expect: Bills, Titans, Cowboys. The surprise is at No. 4, the Jets. They are helped along by scheduling (most notably the next two weeks against the 49ers and Dolphins, who have struggled to stop the run).

On these numbers, you’re seeing rushing yards only, rather than a blend of rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. I did this because there are some teams that tend to allow a lot of rushing yards but few TD runs, and vice versa.

Three teams clock in under 90 yards in the final four weeks: Lions, Giants, Vikings. No surprises there. The Ravens finish 29th, but their run game has been looking a little better recently.

The Browns finish 28th, but not that the offense-defense trends suggest they will post middle-of-the-pack rushing numbers in each of the next two weeks (18th this week, and 15th next week). That’s why I have flagged Isaiah Crowell as a possible viable player for Sunday.

MATCHUP ESTIMATES RUSHING (Weeks 14-17)
Team14151617Yards
Buffalo3113137.5
Tennessee2424129.6
Dallas4332128.7
NY Jets172512116.3
Houston86715114.6
San Francisco14868114.4
Atlanta1122118114.2
Oakland617107112.7
New England275185110.7
San Diego259511110.7
Seattle2412241110.1
New Orleans914917108.5
Arizona7181913107.6
Pittsburgh1311306106.8
Carolina23101710106.4
Indianapolis17201114105.9
Miami1621819105.5
Cincinnati5221629105.0
Denver2624129104.3
Washington15191422103.9
Kansas City12251327103.0
Jacksonville19132616102.2
Chicago21231520102.1
Green Bay22162224100.5
Philadelphia10282326100.1
Tampa Bay2027202398.9
Los Angeles313043198.0
Cleveland1815282896.6
Baltimore3026272194.9
Minnesota2829313089.4
NY Giants3231292588.2
Detroit2932323287.3

For passing (also built on yards), the Saints, Falcons and Washington are the top 3, then you see the Bucs – not as good as those teams but with some favorable matchups.

The bottom teams are about what you would expect: 49ers, Bills, Texans, Rams.

MATCHUP ESTIMATES PASSING (Weeks 14-17)
Team14151617Yards
New Orleans1921295.3
Atlanta4312294.4
Washington2153293.7
Tampa Bay5544280.7
San Diego36105279.1
Arizona1021214272.4
Oakland64324272.3
Detroit23888268.7
Baltimore12131110267.4
Carolina1114918267.1
Cincinnati772219265.5
Pittsburgh1610206265.2
NY Giants9171813264.4
New England192669262.9
Seattle8182412261.4
Green Bay1820237258.8
Dallas13191921258.0
Chicago15121528257.8
Cleveland22241317257.6
Denver14231720257.5
Kansas City17113011255.9
Philadelphia21281616255.6
Indianapolis2422725255.0
Jacksonville29301415248.5
Minnesota32162127246.0
NY Jets26272526242.9
Miami31212623241.6
Tennessee30152929239.7
Los Angeles20292732238.5
Houston25322822234.6
Buffalo28313130231.5
San Francisco27253231231.4

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index