We’re in December. Only 25 percent of the NFL season is left. For most, the final quarter of that 25 percent don’t matter, and they’re not much concerned with Week 16 either. They’re scrambling to find specific players for specific weeks.
You weigh the abilities of players against the defenses they’re working against.
What follows is a brief overview of the final month. It was created by averaging the current production of each offense against the defenses they will be facing.
If you follow such a process, which can be useful for creating a first blush estimate of how teams might perform, only two offenses project to average at least 3 touchdowns over the rest of the season. (That’s offensive touchdowns, setting aside kick returns and takeaways). The Falcons and Saints. Next in line would be the Chargers, Raiders and Cowboys. (Note that these numbers have not been worked – no discount on Dallas to account for the possibility of them resting players in Weeks 16-17).
The Texans, Ravens and Rams project to score the fewest touchdowns, down around 2 per week for those offenses. (Again, the numbers haven’t been worked on, so no weight for the Ravens playing their best offensive game of the season last week, nor for having a good history against the opponent they’ll play this week – New England).
MATCHUP ESTIMATES TOUCHDOWNS (Weeks 14-17) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | OTDs |
Atlanta | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3.13 |
New Orleans | 1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3.05 |
San Diego | 3 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 2.85 |
Oakland | 6 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 2.75 |
Dallas | 12 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 2.74 |
Pittsburgh | 8 | 8 | 13 | 2 | 2.72 |
Buffalo | 14 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2.72 |
Carolina | 7 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 2.67 |
Tennessee | 16 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 2.67 |
New England | 9 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 2.64 |
Indianapolis | 13 | 20 | 5 | 13 | 2.53 |
Arizona | 11 | 10 | 21 | 11 | 2.51 |
Tampa Bay | 10 | 17 | 11 | 14 | 2.50 |
Seattle | 15 | 16 | 27 | 4 | 2.44 |
Green Bay | 20 | 13 | 19 | 9 | 2.41 |
Washington | 19 | 12 | 14 | 21 | 2.38 |
NY Giants | 24 | 18 | 23 | 15 | 2.30 |
San Francisco | 22 | 11 | 16 | 27 | 2.30 |
Cincinnati | 4 | 24 | 25 | 25 | 2.27 |
Miami | 25 | 15 | 15 | 23 | 2.26 |
Denver | 23 | 28 | 22 | 16 | 2.25 |
NY Jets | 5 | 22 | 31 | 24 | 2.22 |
Kansas City | 18 | 25 | 32 | 19 | 2.17 |
Detroit | 27 | 31 | 26 | 18 | 2.14 |
Jacksonville | 32 | 21 | 24 | 20 | 2.14 |
Philadelphia | 17 | 27 | 30 | 26 | 2.09 |
Cleveland | 26 | 26 | 18 | 28 | 2.09 |
Chicago | 28 | 19 | 17 | 32 | 2.07 |
Minnesota | 30 | 23 | 20 | 29 | 2.07 |
Los Angeles | 21 | 32 | 12 | 31 | 2.05 |
Baltimore | 31 | 29 | 29 | 22 | 2.00 |
Houston | 29 | 30 | 28 | 30 | 1.97 |
Looking at just rushing, the teams near the top are what you would expect: Bills, Titans, Cowboys. The surprise is at No. 4, the Jets. They are helped along by scheduling (most notably the next two weeks against the 49ers and Dolphins, who have struggled to stop the run).
On these numbers, you’re seeing rushing yards only, rather than a blend of rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. I did this because there are some teams that tend to allow a lot of rushing yards but few TD runs, and vice versa.
Three teams clock in under 90 yards in the final four weeks: Lions, Giants, Vikings. No surprises there. The Ravens finish 29th, but their run game has been looking a little better recently.
The Browns finish 28th, but not that the offense-defense trends suggest they will post middle-of-the-pack rushing numbers in each of the next two weeks (18th this week, and 15th next week). That’s why I have flagged Isaiah Crowell as a possible viable player for Sunday.
MATCHUP ESTIMATES RUSHING (Weeks 14-17) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | Yards |
Buffalo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 137.5 |
Tennessee | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 129.6 |
Dallas | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 128.7 |
NY Jets | 1 | 7 | 25 | 12 | 116.3 |
Houston | 8 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 114.6 |
San Francisco | 14 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 114.4 |
Atlanta | 11 | 2 | 21 | 18 | 114.2 |
Oakland | 6 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 112.7 |
New England | 27 | 5 | 18 | 5 | 110.7 |
San Diego | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 110.7 |
Seattle | 24 | 12 | 24 | 1 | 110.1 |
New Orleans | 9 | 14 | 9 | 17 | 108.5 |
Arizona | 7 | 18 | 19 | 13 | 107.6 |
Pittsburgh | 13 | 11 | 30 | 6 | 106.8 |
Carolina | 23 | 10 | 17 | 10 | 106.4 |
Indianapolis | 17 | 20 | 11 | 14 | 105.9 |
Miami | 16 | 21 | 8 | 19 | 105.5 |
Cincinnati | 5 | 22 | 16 | 29 | 105.0 |
Denver | 26 | 24 | 12 | 9 | 104.3 |
Washington | 15 | 19 | 14 | 22 | 103.9 |
Kansas City | 12 | 25 | 13 | 27 | 103.0 |
Jacksonville | 19 | 13 | 26 | 16 | 102.2 |
Chicago | 21 | 23 | 15 | 20 | 102.1 |
Green Bay | 22 | 16 | 22 | 24 | 100.5 |
Philadelphia | 10 | 28 | 23 | 26 | 100.1 |
Tampa Bay | 20 | 27 | 20 | 23 | 98.9 |
Los Angeles | 31 | 30 | 4 | 31 | 98.0 |
Cleveland | 18 | 15 | 28 | 28 | 96.6 |
Baltimore | 30 | 26 | 27 | 21 | 94.9 |
Minnesota | 28 | 29 | 31 | 30 | 89.4 |
NY Giants | 32 | 31 | 29 | 25 | 88.2 |
Detroit | 29 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 87.3 |
For passing (also built on yards), the Saints, Falcons and Washington are the top 3, then you see the Bucs – not as good as those teams but with some favorable matchups.
The bottom teams are about what you would expect: 49ers, Bills, Texans, Rams.
MATCHUP ESTIMATES PASSING (Weeks 14-17) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | Yards |
New Orleans | 1 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 295.3 |
Atlanta | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 294.4 |
Washington | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 293.7 |
Tampa Bay | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 280.7 |
San Diego | 3 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 279.1 |
Arizona | 10 | 2 | 12 | 14 | 272.4 |
Oakland | 6 | 4 | 3 | 24 | 272.3 |
Detroit | 23 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 268.7 |
Baltimore | 12 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 267.4 |
Carolina | 11 | 14 | 9 | 18 | 267.1 |
Cincinnati | 7 | 7 | 22 | 19 | 265.5 |
Pittsburgh | 16 | 10 | 20 | 6 | 265.2 |
NY Giants | 9 | 17 | 18 | 13 | 264.4 |
New England | 19 | 26 | 6 | 9 | 262.9 |
Seattle | 8 | 18 | 24 | 12 | 261.4 |
Green Bay | 18 | 20 | 23 | 7 | 258.8 |
Dallas | 13 | 19 | 19 | 21 | 258.0 |
Chicago | 15 | 12 | 15 | 28 | 257.8 |
Cleveland | 22 | 24 | 13 | 17 | 257.6 |
Denver | 14 | 23 | 17 | 20 | 257.5 |
Kansas City | 17 | 11 | 30 | 11 | 255.9 |
Philadelphia | 21 | 28 | 16 | 16 | 255.6 |
Indianapolis | 24 | 22 | 7 | 25 | 255.0 |
Jacksonville | 29 | 30 | 14 | 15 | 248.5 |
Minnesota | 32 | 16 | 21 | 27 | 246.0 |
NY Jets | 26 | 27 | 25 | 26 | 242.9 |
Miami | 31 | 21 | 26 | 23 | 241.6 |
Tennessee | 30 | 15 | 29 | 29 | 239.7 |
Los Angeles | 20 | 29 | 27 | 32 | 238.5 |
Houston | 25 | 32 | 28 | 22 | 234.6 |
Buffalo | 28 | 31 | 31 | 30 | 231.5 |
San Francisco | 27 | 25 | 32 | 31 | 231.4 |
—Ian Allan