There were some notable passing numbers put together in 2016. Sam Bradford broke the all-time completion percentage record. And Tom Brady threw 28 TDs versus only 2 interceptions.
Those guys had good seasons. Brady is as good as there is at that position, and I thought Bradford was one of the 15-20 best quarterbacks in the league last year, given his situation (on a team with no offensive line). Carson Palmer, for example, is more heralded – because of what he’s done in previous seasons – but I thought Bradford was better than Palmer in 2016.
But for these quarterbacks and others, a big part of the story is the reality that the game is changing. With the severe limitations on how defenders are allowed to contact quarterbacks and wide receivers, it’s become easier to pass, so numbers are going up across the board.
Just 25 years ago, for example, teams averaged more interceptions than touchdowns. But in each of the last three years, teams have averaged over 10 more touchdowns than interceptions.
Interceptions seem to be going away. Two years ago they dropped to an all-time low 14.1 per team (on average). Now it’s dropped to an average of only 13.0 per team.
Completion percentage was about 57 percent in the ‘90s. Now it’s climbed to 63 percent.
A 4,000-yard passing season used to mean something. Now that’s about the league average.
In fantasy leagues, the average is kind of where you set the bar in August. That is, you can assume heading into your draft that if you make the position less of a priority – streaming the position, grabbing emerging players off the waiver wire and whatnot, you’re still going to be pretty good.
If you’re using a premium pick on a quarterback – something in the first four rounds – it should be with the belief that he’ll deliver something better than about 250 yards per game and 25 TD passes in the season.
| NFL PASSING AVERAGES, LAST 25 YEARS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pct | Yards | TD | Int |
| 1992 | 57.3% | 3,286 | 18.4 | 18.5 |
| 1993 | 57.9% | 3,446 | 18.5 | 16.8 |
| 1994 | 58.0% | 3,639 | 20.8 | 16.9 |
| 1995 | 58.2% | 3,769 | 22.1 | 17.1 |
| 1996 | 57.6% | 3,555 | 20.9 | 18.1 |
| 1997 | 56.2% | 3,510 | 20.6 | 16.0 |
| 1998 | 56.6% | 3,536 | 21.9 | 17.0 |
| 1999 | 57.1% | 3,653 | 21.5 | 18.1 |
| 2000 | 58.2% | 3,553 | 20.5 | 17.1 |
| 2001 | 59.0% | 3,537 | 20.5 | 17.6 |
| 2002 | 59.6% | 3,631 | 21.7 | 16.5 |
| 2003 | 58.8% | 3,421 | 20.4 | 16.8 |
| 2004 | 59.8% | 3,604 | 22.9 | 16.4 |
| 2005 | 59.5% | 3,491 | 20.1 | 15.8 |
| 2006 | 59.8% | 3,509 | 20.3 | 16.3 |
| 2007 | 61.2% | 3,652 | 22.5 | 16.7 |
| 2008 | 61.0% | 3,586 | 20.2 | 14.5 |
| 2009 | 60.9% | 3,716 | 22.2 | 16.4 |
| 2010 | 60.8% | 3,780 | 23.5 | 16.0 |
| 2011 | 60.1% | 3,917 | 23.3 | 15.8 |
| 2012 | 60.9% | 3,936 | 23.7 | 14.6 |
| 2013 | 61.2% | 4,037 | 25.1 | 15.7 |
| 2014 | 62.6% | 4,028 | 25.2 | 14.1 |
| 2015 | 63.0% | 4,147 | 26.3 | 13.6 |
| 2016 | 63.0% | 4,090 | 24.6 | 13.0 |
—Ian Allan