“The Patriots will take away your No. 1 receiver and make somebody else beat them.” That theory gets tossed around often. But is it actually true? That is, should we expect Julio Jones to be utilized less than usual on Sunday?
I can recall a few instances over the years where the Patriots have come up really big against good players. Specifically, I remember Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez and Jimmy Graham all having quiet games (and I’m going back a few years here – when those guys were operating at peak efficiency).
But let’s look at the more recent numbers and try to gauge whether there’s much chance of them throwing a wet blanket on Jones.
See below the numbers for No. 1 pass catching options against the Patriots in the last two years. If a team didn’t have a clear No. 1, or was simply a complete inept offense, I left them out. So no on the 49ers and Rams this year (even though Kenny Britt managed to catch 2 balls for 67 yards and a touchdown – I thought about it but decided to leave him out, with Jared Goff starting at that time). Terrelle Pryor had gone over 140 yards in a game and scored two weeks in a row, so with Corey Coleman hurt, I decided Pryor fit.
In Denver, both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are really good, so I just left them both in.
Including the postseason, I came up with 33 players – 31 wide receivers, plus Jordan Reed and Delanie Walker.
Those players combined averaged 5.1 catches and 69 yards, with 17 TDs in 33 games.
Looking at just the wide receivers, they in a 16-game season playing the Patriots every week would have totaled 86 catches for 1,134 yards and 7.2 TDs.
The numbers, it seems, are just a little off of usual production, but I don’t think it’s fair to say the Patriots are shutting everyone down. I don’t think they’re taking away No. 1 wide receivers.
Looking at the 33 games, I see many instances where the Patriots played well against said player but the guy finished with decent enough numbers anyway. Most notably, they did a great job against Odell Beckham Jr., but he caught an 87-yard touchdown late, finishing with 104 yards and a score. They frustrated Sammy Watkins (healthy Watkins, in 2015), but he caught a late touchdown, finishing with 6 catches for 60 yards and at touchdown.
They’ve done good work against Antonio Brown, with his only touchdown in three games against them coming on a meaningless last-minute play in Week 1 of 2015. But Brown has still caught 23 passes for 316 yards in three games against them. That’s not shut down.
Using a mixture of fact and opinion, I see 8 games (out of 33 opportunities) where a player has come up noticeably small against New England. Most notably, DeMaryius Thomas caught 3 passes for 48 yards in a pair of games against them. He’s a big receiver, like Jones. Sammy Watkins was playing great in 2015, and they shut him down in a game. And they’ve been remarkably good against DeAndre Hopkins, never more so than at the end of the 2015 season, when Hopkins was ripping up the league but caught only 3 passes for 52 yards.
Jordan Reed caught only 3 passes for 18 yards against New England; that was in 2015, when he was really crushing it. But Reed at least scored in that game. He’s also a tight end.
I don’t see compelling data that suggests Jones shouldn’t be the favorite to be the leading receiver on Sunday.
On the chart below, I put a black dot next to players that I felt achieved well under expectations.
On the blank teams, I didn't feel they had a viable receiver. (With Dallas, both Dez Bryant and Tony Romo were hurt for that game; with Kansas City, Jeremy Maclin had sprained his ankle in the playoff opener.)
| GOOD RECEIVERS AGAINST PATRIOTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No | Yards | TD |
| 2015 | Antonio Brown | 9 | 133 | 1 |
| 2015 | at Sammy Watkins | 6 | 60 | 1 |
| 2015 | Allen Robinson | 4 | 68 | 0 |
| 2015 | at Dallas (none) | |||
| 2015 | at T.Y. Hilton | 6 | 74 | 1 |
| 2015 | Brandon Marshall | 4 | 67 | 0 |
| 2015 | Jarvis Landry | 6 | 71 | 0 |
| 2015 | • Jordan Reed (TE) | 3 | 18 | 1 |
| 2015 | at Odell Beckham | 4 | 104 | 1 |
| 2015 | • Sammy Watkins | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| 2015 | • at DeMaryius Thomas | 1 | 36 | 0 |
| 2015 | at Emmanuel Sanders | 6 | 113 | 0 |
| 2015 | Jordan Matthews | 3 | 36 | 1 |
| 2015 | • at DeAndre Hopkins | 3 | 52 | 0 |
| 2015 | Delanie Walker (TE) | 2 | 64 | 2 |
| 2015 | at Brandon Marshall | 8 | 115 | 2 |
| 2015 | at Jarvis Landry | 6 | 72 | 0 |
| 2015 | Kansas City (none) | |||
| 2015 | • at DeMaryius Thomas | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| 2015 | at Emmanuel Sanders | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| 2016 | Larry Fitzgerald | 8 | 81 | 2 |
| 2016 | Jarvis Landry | 10 | 137 | 0 |
| 2016 | • DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| 2016 | Buffalo (none) | |||
| 2016 | at Terrelle Pryor | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| 2016 | A.J. Green | 6 | 88 | 0 |
| 2016 | at Antonio Brown | 7 | 106 | 0 |
| 2016 | at Buffalo (none) | |||
| 2016 | Doug Baldwin | 6 | 59 | 3 |
| 2016 | at San Francisco (none) | |||
| 2016 | at Brandon Marshall | 6 | 67 | 1 |
| 2016 | Los Angeles (none) | |||
| 2016 | Steve Smith | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| 2016 | at Demaryius Thomas | 7 | 91 | 0 |
| 2016 | • at Emmanuel Sanders | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| 2016 | • Brandon Marshall | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| 2016 | at Jarvis Landry | 9 | 76 | 1 |
| 2016 | DeAndre Hopkins | 6 | 65 | 0 |
| 2016 | Antonio Brown | 7 | 77 | 0 |
—Ian Allan