I have put together my individual player projections. Those were posted on the site earlier. Let me now go through the Super Bowl Prop Bets and underline a few of the better values.

A few different web sites list prop bets. I’m using those posted at oddshark.com.

These are a few that caught my eye. For scoring purposes, I will work around units of $100. That is, every time there’s a bet that’s flagged at +125, +130 or whatever, I will put down $100 to win that total. If a bet is listed the other way (-115, -135), I would bet $115 or $135 to potentially win $100.

Over 6.5 touchdowns (-140)

I see scoring in this game. Unlikely, I think, that either team is held under 3 TDs. So I think this one is safe. Note that it’s tagged at minus-$140 (meaning you put down $140, and if you win, you get your $140 back plus $100 for a win).

Teams will score 7-10 TDs (+450/+600/+700/$425)

This is a variation of the same bet. As I look at each team, I come up with about 4 TDs each. So I will make four bets here. With my fictional bankroll, this will be four $100 bets. If fewer than 7 TDs are scored, I would lose all $400. But if 7-plus touchdowns are scored, I would win money (even with 3 of the bets losing). At 7 TDs, the payoff would be $150 ($450 in winnings minus $300 in losses). At 8-9 TDs, the payoff is the higher $300 or $400. And if 10-plus touchdowns are scored, the net gain would be a tiny $25. There is more upside in this bet if you remove the unlikely case of the teams getting up to 10-plus touchdowns. I’m going with the safe version.

Longest touchdown under 52.5 yards (-115)

Patriots don’t give up long pass plays – just 5 pass plays over 40 yards all year. So unlike that Atlanta scores a long touchdown. And New England tends to use more of a shorter, quick-hitting passing game, rather trying many vertical balls. I realize they had more long passes than usual in the Houston game, but I think we’ll see more of a conventional New England team on Sunday.

Patriots score shortest touchdown (-115)

New England plays really good run defense. Just 6 rushing touchdowns allowed in 18 games. Just 6 and 8 rushing touchdowns allowed in the previous two regular season. So unlikely that Atlanta punches in a 1-yard touchdown (not impossible, but not as likely). Patriots, on the other hand, score lots of short touchdown runs, and Atlanta allows plenty. Falcons allowed touchdowns on league-worst ratio of drives in the red zone in the regular season.

Matt Ryan will throw the first touchdown pass (+120)

I don’t see a big difference between the two quarterbacks. I see them as pretty interchangeable for touchdown passes. The Patriots are the slight favorite, but the pass-run blend favors the Falcons. That is, New England doesn’t allow many rushing touchdowns (just 6 in 18 games). Atlanta has allowed 15 rushing touchdowns. So I think Ryan is a little more likely to get that first TD pass. So I will cast my lot with him, given the way the payouts are structured (with Brady, you have to put down $150 to win $100; with Ryan, you receiver $120 on a $100 wager).

Freeman (+2.5) will have more receiving yards than Bennett (-115)

I expect Freeman will finish with more receiving yards. Bennett has been a huge disappointment, averaging 26 yards per game since Gronkowski got hurt. Freeman, on the other hand, has averaged 45 receiving yards in his last seven games. If the Falcons struggle to run (possible), dumpoff passes could be a big factor. Even if they don’t struggle, he catches passes. I like Freeman, particularly with him getting an extra 2.5-yards thrown in.

Hogan (+29.5) will have more receiving yards than Edelman (-115)

Hogan has been coming on, with 95 and 180 yards in his last two games. Doesn’t catch as many passes, but he can pick them up in chunks. So with that extra 29.5 yards to work with, I think he’s better than Edelman. On my fantasy board, I have Edelman finishing with only 11 more yards than Hogan.

Freeman (-.5) will catch more passes than Bennett (-115)

As mentioned previously, Patriots aren’t using Bennett in the passing game. Freeman is a huge part of Atlanta’s offense.

LeGarrette Blount under 5.5 receiving yards (-200)

There’s a little bit of a price tag on this one. (I must put down $200 to win $100). But Blount has caught passes in only 5 of 18 games all year. He’s been under 5 yards in all but four of those games.

Chris Hogan over 57.5 receiving yards (-125)

This isn’t a dunk, but I think Hogan is coming on and has a nice rapport with Brady right now. Seems to be well ahead of Malcolm Mitchell (and Floyd/Amendola). I think he’s going for 70-plus.

Austin Hooper under 17.5 yards (-105)

He’s not even their main tight end. He’s a liability as a blocker, and they use Levine Toilolo a lot more at that position. Hooper caught 2 passes for 23 yards in their last game (which I guess explains the setting of the line) but he wasn’t over 10 yards in any of his six previous games. I’m going under.

There won’t be a defensive or special teams score (-200)

These teams don’t turn it over. New England hasn’t allowed any of those touchdowns all year. They also have scored just one (on a kickoff). Atlanta has allowed only 2 such TDs. So putting down $200 to win $100, I think, looks like a nice investment.

Will there be a safety in the game?

For reasons I can’t explain, safeties come up more often in Super Bowls. First play of the game in New York, and the ball is snapped past Peyton Manning’s head. The Ravens take an intentional safety late against San Francisco. The Cardinals got one against the Steelers. As a kid, I remember Pittsburgh scoring safeties in back-to-back Super Bowls against the Vikings and Cowboys. In last 10 years, there have been 3 safeties in 10 games – 30 percent. Yet in the regular season in those years, there have been 169 safeties in 2,560 games – 6.6 percent. Hmm. In this one, you get $600 if you put down $100 in favor of a safety. You have to put down $1,000 to win $100 going the other way. I don’t think the price tags are compelling either way, so I will sit out safeties.

Under 1.5 interceptions (-130)

These guys don’t thrown picks. For Brady, just 4 in 14 games. For Ryan, only 7 in 18 games. So if they were playing against each other, you would expect to see something along the lines of 11 interceptions per 16 games. Unlikely they combine to throw 2.

Nobody will rough a passer (-150)

You have to put down $150 to make $100. I don’t see it happening. I think the Patriots are better coached than most teams – they either coach up their players to avoid those kind of mistakes (or simply don’t draft them). Other defenses seem to be more prone to keeping drives alive on those kind of plays. Patriots don’t do it. And with Atlanta, I think they’ll have problems getting to Brady. New England allowed only 24 sacks in 16 games in the regular season.

Skimming through the list, those were the bets that caught my eye. I will score it up after the game and see how I did.