The Patriots appear to have the better defense. They allowed a lot fewer yards and points than Atlanta in the regular season. They also ranked No. 1 in scoring defense. But after looking at the schedules, I don’t think the difference is actually that severe.
Especially in regards to passing. The Patriots didn’t see many good quarterbacks. They didn’t play any teams that ranked in the top 6 in passing, and only three games against teams that finished in the top 10. Carson Palmer, Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger. And only two others who ranked in the top 20 – Joe Flacco and Andy Dalton. (By injury, they missed a second game against Roethlisberger – saw Landry Jones instead.)
So while it may on the surface seem impressive that New England allowed only 21 TD passes (10 fewer than the Falcons) truth is that was actually pretty average. Those same opponents averaged 20.4 touchdown passes (per 16 games) against their other opponents.
Similarly, the Patriots allowed an average of 252 passing yards, and that might seem pretty good. But those same opponents averaged only 235 passing yards in their other games.
So my hunch is Matt Ryan will be just fine in this game. Probably will go for 300-plus yards, with 3 TD passes more likely than 2. He’s playing a lot better than anybody New England has seen.
The Falcons has played a lot more games against much better competition, including two each against Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Cam Newton, and games against Philip Rivers and Derek Carr.
Not arguing that the Falcons will win this game, but I think the difference between the defenses isn’t as huge as most think.
| SCHEDULING (Opp's passing) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yd/G | TD/Yr | Pts/G |
| New England | 235.3 | 20.4 | 31.2 |
| Miami | 244.4 | 22.3 | 32.8 |
| Pittsburgh | 251.6 | 21.4 | 33.2 |
| Cincinnati | 249.2 | 22.2 | 33.2 |
| NY Jets | 246.3 | 23.0 | 33.3 |
| Baltimore | 251.3 | 22.7 | 33.7 |
| Indianapolis | 246.3 | 24.1 | 33.7 |
| Buffalo | 249.2 | 23.7 | 33.8 |
| Tennessee | 249.5 | 24.2 | 34.0 |
| Washington | 253.8 | 23.3 | 34.1 |
| Arizona | 252.3 | 23.9 | 34.2 |
| Cleveland | 255.9 | 23.5 | 34.4 |
| Seattle | 248.2 | 25.6 | 34.4 |
| Green Bay | 258.6 | 23.1 | 34.5 |
| Jacksonville | 252.5 | 24.9 | 34.6 |
| Dallas | 259.0 | 23.2 | 34.6 |
| San Francisco | 256.9 | 24.1 | 34.7 |
| San Diego | 254.3 | 25.5 | 35.0 |
| Detroit | 258.2 | 24.6 | 35.0 |
| Oakland | 256.9 | 25.3 | 35.2 |
| NY Giants | 262.7 | 23.9 | 35.2 |
| Los Angeles | 257.8 | 25.3 | 35.3 |
| Chicago | 255.9 | 25.9 | 35.3 |
| New Orleans | 256.7 | 25.7 | 35.3 |
| Atlanta | 259.1 | 25.9 | 35.6 |
| Minnesota | 261.2 | 25.7 | 35.7 |
| Houston | 262.0 | 26.9 | 36.3 |
| Philadelphia | 268.9 | 25.1 | 36.3 |
| Kansas City | 261.1 | 27.7 | 36.5 |
| Tampa Bay | 265.5 | 26.7 | 36.6 |
| Denver | 267.6 | 28.3 | 37.4 |
| Carolina | 270.6 | 27.7 | 37.4 |
New England led the league in scoring defense, but I don’t think it’s quite that good. I see it as more of one of the league’s top half-dozen defenses.
This is also supported by numbers. New England’s opponents averaged only 21.1 points in other games, the fewest in the league.
On this chart, I am also listing touchdowns, and those are offensive touchdowns – only rushing and passing. The Patriots’ opponents have averaged only 35.7 touchdowns (per 16 games), which is the 3rd-lowest total in the league. Atlanta’s opponents averaged about 4 more touchdowns.
| SCHEDULING (Opposing offenses) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Team | Pts/G | TD/Yr |
| New England | 21.1 | 35.7 |
| Buffalo | 21.5 | 37.1 |
| Indianapolis | 21.5 | 35.3 |
| Tennessee | 21.7 | 35.3 |
| Dallas | 21.7 | 35.5 |
| Miami | 22.0 | 38.3 |
| Cincinnati | 22.0 | 36.5 |
| Green Bay | 22.1 | 35.5 |
| Detroit | 22.1 | 37.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 22.1 | 36.6 |
| Washington | 22.1 | 36.7 |
| Arizona | 22.3 | 38.3 |
| Chicago | 22.3 | 37.3 |
| Baltimore | 22.3 | 38.5 |
| Jacksonville | 22.6 | 37.4 |
| San Francisco | 22.6 | 39.2 |
| NY Jets | 22.6 | 39.7 |
| Cleveland | 22.7 | 38.3 |
| Minnesota | 22.8 | 38.7 |
| NY Giants | 22.9 | 38.7 |
| Philadelphia | 23.1 | 39.1 |
| New Orleans | 23.3 | 38.7 |
| Houston | 23.3 | 39.5 |
| San Diego | 23.3 | 38.8 |
| Seattle | 23.4 | 41.1 |
| Atlanta | 23.5 | 39.5 |
| Los Angeles | 23.5 | 40.8 |
| Oakland | 23.9 | 38.6 |
| Kansas City | 24.2 | 40.7 |
| Carolina | 24.6 | 42.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 24.8 | 42.4 |
| Denver | 25.1 | 42.4 |
I will also toss out the rushing numbers. I have no axe to grind here, just figured I’d toss them in while I was doing the others.
On this one, it jumps out to me that these support support the idea that New England has one of the very best run defenses in the league. The Patriots were able to rank 3rd in run defense and allow only 6 rushing touchdowns, even while playing one of the hardest run-defense schedules in the league (headlined by two games against Buffalo).
New England’s run defense is very much for real, which could translate into Matt Ryan being very busy on Sunday. (Though as I noted in the Atlanta preview yesterday, the Falcons have seen a lot of top-10 run defenses and have had success against most of them).
| SCHEDULING (Opp's rushing) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yd/G | TD/Yr | Pts/G |
| Tennessee | 104.1 | 11.1 | 14.6 |
| Chicago | 103.1 | 11.4 | 14.6 |
| Indianapolis | 106.7 | 11.1 | 14.8 |
| Dallas | 103.3 | 12.3 | 14.9 |
| Green Bay | 104.7 | 12.4 | 15.1 |
| Detroit | 105.0 | 12.4 | 15.1 |
| New Orleans | 104.5 | 12.9 | 15.3 |
| Houston | 106.5 | 12.6 | 15.4 |
| Kansas City | 107.8 | 13.0 | 15.7 |
| Washington | 106.4 | 13.4 | 15.7 |
| Jacksonville | 109.8 | 12.5 | 15.7 |
| Minnesota | 108.1 | 13.0 | 15.7 |
| Atlanta | 106.0 | 13.6 | 15.7 |
| Buffalo | 107.2 | 13.3 | 15.7 |
| Oakland | 108.8 | 13.3 | 15.9 |
| Philadelphia | 106.4 | 13.9 | 15.9 |
| Carolina | 105.3 | 14.3 | 15.9 |
| San Diego | 111.2 | 13.3 | 16.1 |
| Denver | 109.7 | 14.1 | 16.2 |
| Arizona | 109.7 | 14.5 | 16.4 |
| NY Giants | 108.5 | 14.8 | 16.4 |
| San Francisco | 107.7 | 15.1 | 16.4 |
| Cincinnati | 111.9 | 14.3 | 16.5 |
| Cleveland | 111.8 | 14.9 | 16.8 |
| Tampa Bay | 110.3 | 15.7 | 16.9 |
| Pittsburgh | 113.0 | 15.2 | 17.0 |
| Los Angeles | 112.4 | 15.5 | 17.0 |
| Seattle | 113.6 | 15.5 | 17.2 |
| New England | 115.6 | 15.3 | 17.3 |
| Miami | 114.0 | 16.0 | 17.4 |
| Baltimore | 116.9 | 15.7 | 17.6 |
| NY Jets | 115.6 | 16.7 | 17.8 |
—Ian Allan