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Strength of schedule for 2017 season

Raiders appear to have league's hardest schedule

In the NFL, it’s not only how good you are, it’s who you play. An easier schedule can provide the lift from being a 7-9 also-ran and a 9-7 wild card. And with that in mind, an early look at Strength of Schedule for the 2017 season.

In general, the AFC South seems to be positioned to play the easiest schedules in the league. Especially the Colts, Jaguars and Titans (unlike the Texans, they won’t have to play New England). All of these teams will not only get to play six games inside the AFC South (which is weak), they’ll also all play the Browns, Rams and 49ers.

On paper, meanwhile, the AFC West projects to have the hardest schedules in the upcoming season.

2017 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (win-loss)
TeamWLTPct
Indianapolis1071463.424
Jacksonville1111423.439
Tennessee1111423.439
Cincinnati1151410.449
Minnesota1151392.453
Pittsburgh1151392.453
Seattle1151383.455
Houston1151383.455
Baltimore1171372.461
Arizona1181353.467
Detroit1191352.469
Cleveland1191352.469
San Francisco1191325.475
Chicago1221331.479
Green Bay1221322.480
Los Angeles1211305.482
Carolina1291270.504
New Orleans1301251.510
Tampa Bay1321231.518
Atlanta1331221.521
New England1351210.527
Dallas1341184.531
Philadelphia1341184.531
NY Jets1371190.535
NY Giants1351174.535
Washington1381162.543
Miami1401160.547
Buffalo1431121.561
Oakland1441111.564
San Diego1451101.568
Kansas City1471081.576
Denver1471072.578

Some prefer to look not at wins but points scored. Fantasy football, after all, is more about scoring than winning and losing. Using that approach, those four AFC West teams all rank in the bottom-5 in schedule difficulty, joined by Washington.

The most score-happy schedules, meanwhile, belong not to the AFC South but to Minnesota, Seattle, New England and three teams in the wide-open NFC South.

2017 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (points)
TeamAvg
Carolina24.0
Minnesota23.9
Seattle23.7
Tampa Bay23.6
New England23.6
New Orleans23.4
Jacksonville23.3
Chicago23.3
Tennessee23.2
Atlanta23.1
NY Jets23.1
Baltimore23.1
Detroit23.0
Arizona22.9
Houston22.8
Buffalo22.8
Los Angeles22.8
Indianapolis22.8
Cincinnati22.8
Miami22.7
Green Bay22.5
Dallas22.4
NY Giants22.3
Cleveland22.3
San Francisco22.3
Philadelphia22.2
Pittsburgh22.2
Denver22.1
Kansas City21.8
San Diego21.7
Washington21.7
Oakland21.4

As an extra for you, I offer a similar chart. This one shows not points (all scoring) but only offensive touchdowns. Using this version, Minnesota, Carolina and Seattle are still up near the top, joined by Chicago. And the bottom teams are also pretty similar, with Oakland down in the bottom spot again.

2017 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (offensive touchdowns)
TeamRunPassTotal
Minnesota.861.732.59
Carolina.891.672.57
Chicago.801.732.54
Seattle.911.592.50
New Orleans.821.672.48
Tennessee.931.552.48
Baltimore.851.622.47
New England.931.532.46
Tampa Bay.831.622.45
Jacksonville.881.562.44
NY Jets.921.522.44
Cincinnati.861.572.43
Arizona.891.532.43
Green Bay.821.602.42
Detroit.851.572.42
Atlanta.821.592.41
NY Giants.901.502.40
Pittsburgh.761.632.39
Houston.851.542.39
Buffalo.801.582.38
Indianapolis.941.432.37
Dallas.921.452.37
Miami.861.512.36
Los Angeles.951.412.36
Denver.851.482.33
Cleveland.791.532.32
Philadelphia.931.392.32
San Diego.861.442.30
San Francisco.851.432.28
Kansas City.911.362.27
Washington.851.412.27
Oakland.811.382.20

For rushing-specific numbers, the Jets, Patriots and Titans on paper seem to have the friendliest schedules, with the Browns and 49ers down at the bottom.

On this one, you’re seeing average rushing yards and touchdowns per game, and the “points” convert those to a general fantasy number (6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards).

2017 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (rushing)
TeamYardsTDPoints
NY Jets116.9217.1
New England114.9317.0
Tennessee113.9316.9
Carolina113.8916.7
San Diego115.8616.7
Indianapolis110.9416.6
Los Angeles108.9516.5
Baltimore113.8516.5
Dallas109.9216.4
NY Giants110.9016.4
Kansas City109.9116.4
Arizona110.8916.4
Philadelphia108.9316.3
Seattle109.9116.3
Cincinnati111.8616.2
Denver110.8516.1
Houston109.8516.0
Jacksonville107.8816.0
Minnesota108.8616.0
Buffalo111.8015.9
New Orleans109.8215.8
Miami106.8615.8
Chicago109.8015.7
Oakland108.8115.7
Detroit106.8515.7
Washington105.8515.6
Green Bay107.8215.6
Atlanta105.8215.5
Pittsburgh109.7615.5
Tampa Bay104.8315.4
San Francisco100.8515.1
Cleveland103.7915.0

Finally, the passing number. On this one, I’m also using a point for every 10 yards and 6 points for touchdowns. The easiest schedules, in the unlikely event form holds, should belong to the four NFC South teams, plus Minnesota and Chicago.

The Colts on this one finish in last, even though if you scroll back to the first chart, the win-loss numbers suggested they should have the easiest schedule in the league. That’s being driven largely (I think) by the Texans and Jaguars having really good pass defenses last year, and also by the Texans in particular putting up really poor passing numbers last year (making all of those AFC South pass defenses look better than they actually are).

2017 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (passing)
TeamYardsTDPoints
Minnesota2641.7336.8
Chicago2621.7336.6
New Orleans2621.6736.2
Carolina2621.6736.2
Tampa Bay2641.6236.1
Atlanta2631.5935.8
Buffalo2601.5835.5
Detroit2591.5735.3
Green Bay2561.6035.2
Baltimore2551.6235.2
Seattle2561.5935.2
Pittsburgh2521.6335.0
Denver2611.4834.9
Miami2581.5134.9
Jacksonville2541.5634.7
Houston2551.5434.7
NY Jets2561.5234.7
New England2551.5334.7
Arizona2541.5334.6
NY Giants2551.5034.5
Cleveland2531.5334.5
Dallas2571.4534.4
Cincinnati2491.5734.3
Philadelphia2571.3934.0
Tennessee2461.5533.9
Washington2541.4133.9
San Francisco2521.4333.8
Los Angeles2521.4133.7
San Diego2501.4433.7
Oakland2531.3833.6
Kansas City2501.3633.2
Indianapolis2431.4332.9

—Ian Allan

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