In the NFL, it’s not only how good you are, it’s who you play. An easier schedule can provide the lift from being a 7-9 also-ran and a 9-7 wild card. And with that in mind, an early look at Strength of Schedule for the 2017 season.
In general, the AFC South seems to be positioned to play the easiest schedules in the league. Especially the Colts, Jaguars and Titans (unlike the Texans, they won’t have to play New England). All of these teams will not only get to play six games inside the AFC South (which is weak), they’ll also all play the Browns, Rams and 49ers.
On paper, meanwhile, the AFC West projects to have the hardest schedules in the upcoming season.
2017 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (win-loss) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Indianapolis | 107 | 146 | 3 | .424 |
Jacksonville | 111 | 142 | 3 | .439 |
Tennessee | 111 | 142 | 3 | .439 |
Cincinnati | 115 | 141 | 0 | .449 |
Minnesota | 115 | 139 | 2 | .453 |
Pittsburgh | 115 | 139 | 2 | .453 |
Seattle | 115 | 138 | 3 | .455 |
Houston | 115 | 138 | 3 | .455 |
Baltimore | 117 | 137 | 2 | .461 |
Arizona | 118 | 135 | 3 | .467 |
Detroit | 119 | 135 | 2 | .469 |
Cleveland | 119 | 135 | 2 | .469 |
San Francisco | 119 | 132 | 5 | .475 |
Chicago | 122 | 133 | 1 | .479 |
Green Bay | 122 | 132 | 2 | .480 |
Los Angeles | 121 | 130 | 5 | .482 |
Carolina | 129 | 127 | 0 | .504 |
New Orleans | 130 | 125 | 1 | .510 |
Tampa Bay | 132 | 123 | 1 | .518 |
Atlanta | 133 | 122 | 1 | .521 |
New England | 135 | 121 | 0 | .527 |
Dallas | 134 | 118 | 4 | .531 |
Philadelphia | 134 | 118 | 4 | .531 |
NY Jets | 137 | 119 | 0 | .535 |
NY Giants | 135 | 117 | 4 | .535 |
Washington | 138 | 116 | 2 | .543 |
Miami | 140 | 116 | 0 | .547 |
Buffalo | 143 | 112 | 1 | .561 |
Oakland | 144 | 111 | 1 | .564 |
San Diego | 145 | 110 | 1 | .568 |
Kansas City | 147 | 108 | 1 | .576 |
Denver | 147 | 107 | 2 | .578 |
Some prefer to look not at wins but points scored. Fantasy football, after all, is more about scoring than winning and losing. Using that approach, those four AFC West teams all rank in the bottom-5 in schedule difficulty, joined by Washington.
The most score-happy schedules, meanwhile, belong not to the AFC South but to Minnesota, Seattle, New England and three teams in the wide-open NFC South.
2017 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (points) | |
---|---|
Team | Avg |
Carolina | 24.0 |
Minnesota | 23.9 |
Seattle | 23.7 |
Tampa Bay | 23.6 |
New England | 23.6 |
New Orleans | 23.4 |
Jacksonville | 23.3 |
Chicago | 23.3 |
Tennessee | 23.2 |
Atlanta | 23.1 |
NY Jets | 23.1 |
Baltimore | 23.1 |
Detroit | 23.0 |
Arizona | 22.9 |
Houston | 22.8 |
Buffalo | 22.8 |
Los Angeles | 22.8 |
Indianapolis | 22.8 |
Cincinnati | 22.8 |
Miami | 22.7 |
Green Bay | 22.5 |
Dallas | 22.4 |
NY Giants | 22.3 |
Cleveland | 22.3 |
San Francisco | 22.3 |
Philadelphia | 22.2 |
Pittsburgh | 22.2 |
Denver | 22.1 |
Kansas City | 21.8 |
San Diego | 21.7 |
Washington | 21.7 |
Oakland | 21.4 |
As an extra for you, I offer a similar chart. This one shows not points (all scoring) but only offensive touchdowns. Using this version, Minnesota, Carolina and Seattle are still up near the top, joined by Chicago. And the bottom teams are also pretty similar, with Oakland down in the bottom spot again.
2017 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (offensive touchdowns) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Run | Pass | Total |
Minnesota | .86 | 1.73 | 2.59 |
Carolina | .89 | 1.67 | 2.57 |
Chicago | .80 | 1.73 | 2.54 |
Seattle | .91 | 1.59 | 2.50 |
New Orleans | .82 | 1.67 | 2.48 |
Tennessee | .93 | 1.55 | 2.48 |
Baltimore | .85 | 1.62 | 2.47 |
New England | .93 | 1.53 | 2.46 |
Tampa Bay | .83 | 1.62 | 2.45 |
Jacksonville | .88 | 1.56 | 2.44 |
NY Jets | .92 | 1.52 | 2.44 |
Cincinnati | .86 | 1.57 | 2.43 |
Arizona | .89 | 1.53 | 2.43 |
Green Bay | .82 | 1.60 | 2.42 |
Detroit | .85 | 1.57 | 2.42 |
Atlanta | .82 | 1.59 | 2.41 |
NY Giants | .90 | 1.50 | 2.40 |
Pittsburgh | .76 | 1.63 | 2.39 |
Houston | .85 | 1.54 | 2.39 |
Buffalo | .80 | 1.58 | 2.38 |
Indianapolis | .94 | 1.43 | 2.37 |
Dallas | .92 | 1.45 | 2.37 |
Miami | .86 | 1.51 | 2.36 |
Los Angeles | .95 | 1.41 | 2.36 |
Denver | .85 | 1.48 | 2.33 |
Cleveland | .79 | 1.53 | 2.32 |
Philadelphia | .93 | 1.39 | 2.32 |
San Diego | .86 | 1.44 | 2.30 |
San Francisco | .85 | 1.43 | 2.28 |
Kansas City | .91 | 1.36 | 2.27 |
Washington | .85 | 1.41 | 2.27 |
Oakland | .81 | 1.38 | 2.20 |
For rushing-specific numbers, the Jets, Patriots and Titans on paper seem to have the friendliest schedules, with the Browns and 49ers down at the bottom.
On this one, you’re seeing average rushing yards and touchdowns per game, and the “points” convert those to a general fantasy number (6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards).
2017 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (rushing) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TD | Points |
NY Jets | 116 | .92 | 17.1 |
New England | 114 | .93 | 17.0 |
Tennessee | 113 | .93 | 16.9 |
Carolina | 113 | .89 | 16.7 |
San Diego | 115 | .86 | 16.7 |
Indianapolis | 110 | .94 | 16.6 |
Los Angeles | 108 | .95 | 16.5 |
Baltimore | 113 | .85 | 16.5 |
Dallas | 109 | .92 | 16.4 |
NY Giants | 110 | .90 | 16.4 |
Kansas City | 109 | .91 | 16.4 |
Arizona | 110 | .89 | 16.4 |
Philadelphia | 108 | .93 | 16.3 |
Seattle | 109 | .91 | 16.3 |
Cincinnati | 111 | .86 | 16.2 |
Denver | 110 | .85 | 16.1 |
Houston | 109 | .85 | 16.0 |
Jacksonville | 107 | .88 | 16.0 |
Minnesota | 108 | .86 | 16.0 |
Buffalo | 111 | .80 | 15.9 |
New Orleans | 109 | .82 | 15.8 |
Miami | 106 | .86 | 15.8 |
Chicago | 109 | .80 | 15.7 |
Oakland | 108 | .81 | 15.7 |
Detroit | 106 | .85 | 15.7 |
Washington | 105 | .85 | 15.6 |
Green Bay | 107 | .82 | 15.6 |
Atlanta | 105 | .82 | 15.5 |
Pittsburgh | 109 | .76 | 15.5 |
Tampa Bay | 104 | .83 | 15.4 |
San Francisco | 100 | .85 | 15.1 |
Cleveland | 103 | .79 | 15.0 |
Finally, the passing number. On this one, I’m also using a point for every 10 yards and 6 points for touchdowns. The easiest schedules, in the unlikely event form holds, should belong to the four NFC South teams, plus Minnesota and Chicago.
The Colts on this one finish in last, even though if you scroll back to the first chart, the win-loss numbers suggested they should have the easiest schedule in the league. That’s being driven largely (I think) by the Texans and Jaguars having really good pass defenses last year, and also by the Texans in particular putting up really poor passing numbers last year (making all of those AFC South pass defenses look better than they actually are).
2017 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (passing) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TD | Points |
Minnesota | 264 | 1.73 | 36.8 |
Chicago | 262 | 1.73 | 36.6 |
New Orleans | 262 | 1.67 | 36.2 |
Carolina | 262 | 1.67 | 36.2 |
Tampa Bay | 264 | 1.62 | 36.1 |
Atlanta | 263 | 1.59 | 35.8 |
Buffalo | 260 | 1.58 | 35.5 |
Detroit | 259 | 1.57 | 35.3 |
Green Bay | 256 | 1.60 | 35.2 |
Baltimore | 255 | 1.62 | 35.2 |
Seattle | 256 | 1.59 | 35.2 |
Pittsburgh | 252 | 1.63 | 35.0 |
Denver | 261 | 1.48 | 34.9 |
Miami | 258 | 1.51 | 34.9 |
Jacksonville | 254 | 1.56 | 34.7 |
Houston | 255 | 1.54 | 34.7 |
NY Jets | 256 | 1.52 | 34.7 |
New England | 255 | 1.53 | 34.7 |
Arizona | 254 | 1.53 | 34.6 |
NY Giants | 255 | 1.50 | 34.5 |
Cleveland | 253 | 1.53 | 34.5 |
Dallas | 257 | 1.45 | 34.4 |
Cincinnati | 249 | 1.57 | 34.3 |
Philadelphia | 257 | 1.39 | 34.0 |
Tennessee | 246 | 1.55 | 33.9 |
Washington | 254 | 1.41 | 33.9 |
San Francisco | 252 | 1.43 | 33.8 |
Los Angeles | 252 | 1.41 | 33.7 |
San Diego | 250 | 1.44 | 33.7 |
Oakland | 253 | 1.38 | 33.6 |
Kansas City | 250 | 1.36 | 33.2 |
Indianapolis | 243 | 1.43 | 32.9 |
—Ian Allan