The Dolphins have put together one of the league’s better offensive lines. But while Jay Ajayi went over 200 yards three times last year, it wasn’t a road-grader unit. Instead, it was in some ways kind of a disappointment.
Other than his three huge games, Ajayi averaged under 60 rushing yards (just over 60 if you don’t include the playoff loss at Pittsburgh).
And the Dolphins were unusually bad in short-yardage. Miami ran the ball only 15 times when it needed 1 yard to either score or keep a drive alive (on third or fourth down), and converted only 6 of those carries.
Six of 15 is a really low number. Every other team in the league last year converted over half of its attempts. The conversion rate of 40 percent is the lowest since the Cleveland Browns in 2003.
In the last 15 years, in fact, only 17 other teams have converted under half of their attempts when running the ball and needing a yard.
Those are numbers we track (Andy carefully logs them all into a database), and I flipped through the old files.
Best I can offer is that of those previous 17 teams (19, if you include two teams that finished at an even 50 percent), seven were able to turn things around the next year and convert over 70 percent (which is good).
Typically, I believe the league average is around 67-68 percent on these kind of plays.
Miami has a bunch of offensive line talent, increasing the probability (I think) that it could flip things around. They got rid of left tackle Branden Albert, but they’ve got Laremy Tunsil, and he’s ready to be plugged into that role.
I also should point out that while Miami went just 6 of 15, Ajayi wasn’t used on most of those plays. He went 4 of 6 as a short-yardage runner. It was the rest of the team that was dreadful, going a combined 2 of 9.
| AND-ONE RUSHING (last 15 years) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Good | Att | Pct | Next |
| 2003 | • Cleveland | 8 | 23 | 35% | 15-19-78% |
| 2016 | Miami | 6 | 15 | 40% | TBD |
| 2013 | • Seattle | 9 | 22 | 41% | 21-27-77% |
| 2015 | Jacksonville | 9 | 22 | 41% | 8-15-53% |
| 2014 | • St. Louis | 5 | 12 | 42% | 12-17-70% |
| 2002 | • Detroit | 11 | 26 | 42% | 17-23-73% |
| 2015 | NY Giants | 11 | 25 | 44% | 13-19-68% |
| 2012 | Atlanta | 11 | 25 | 44% | 12-22-54% |
| 2007 | • Detroit | 8 | 18 | 44% | 19-24-79% |
| 2002 | Houston | 8 | 18 | 44% | 15-25-60% |
| 2003 | NY Giants | 11 | 24 | 46% | 17-31-54% |
| 2010 | Indianapolis | 8 | 17 | 47% | 9-18-50% |
| 2013 | • Chicago | 10 | 21 | 48% | 21-29-72% |
| 2015 | • Tennessee | 10 | 21 | 48% | 22-31-70% |
| 2011 | St. Louis | 11 | 23 | 48% | 11-17-64% |
| 2010 | Chicago | 11 | 23 | 48% | 13-21-61% |
| 2005 | Arizona | 12 | 25 | 48% | 16-27-59% |
| 2002 | NY Giants | 15 | 31 | 48% | 11-24-45% |
| 2011 | Indianapolis | 9 | 18 | 50% | 14-21-66% |
| 2003 | Tennessee | 11 | 22 | 50% | 13-25-52% |
—Ian Allan