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NFL schedule

Chargers' saddled with difficult early-season schedule

When the schedule comes out, I always start by flipping to Week 17. I like to see who’s missing out on some of the best matchups (and who gets to duck some good defenses).

On that front, the losers appear to be the Steelers (home vs. Browns), Titans (home vs. Jaguars), Patriots (home vs. Jets), Rams (home vs. 49ers). If you were drafting players from those teams, you would prefer to see them play those opponents.

The biggest winners, I think, would be the Colts (duck a game against Houston), Bears (at Minnesota), Jets (at New England), Washington (at New York), Arizona (at Seattle) and Kansas City (at Denver).

Next order of business is gauging which teams can get off to good starts – scoring points early. So it can be useful, I think, to look at the first 5-8 games of the season, maybe trying to pick more players from that group.

So I have run strength of schedule numbers using the just-released schedule.

I picked the first eight games for each team, and I’m running them two different ways.

First using win-loss records. The Colts, Steelers, Cardinals and Ravens have the easiest schedules in their first eight games. Indianapolis has the easiest early schedule by far.

The hardest four first-half schedules belong to three teams from the AFC West (Chargers, Broncos and Kansas City) and the Lions.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS (first 8 games)
TeamWLTPct
Indianapolis42833.340
Pittsburgh50771.395
Arizona54740.422
Baltimore54731.426
Cincinnati57710.445
Carolina58700.453
Minnesota58700.453
Miami59690.461
Jacksonville60671.473
Philadelphia59663.473
Seattle61661.480
Tennessee61661.480
Buffalo63641.496
LA Rams62633.496
Oakland63641.496
Atlanta64640.500
Dallas63632.500
Houston63632.500
New England64640.500
Cleveland64631.504
San Francisco63623.504
NY Giants66611.520
Tampa Bay66611.520
Washington67601.527
Green Bay67592.531
NY Jets68600.531
New Orleans69590.539
Chicago70580.547
Detroit71561.559
Denver72560.563
Kansas City75521.590
LA Chargers84440.656

Looking at those same first eight games, only using touchdowns rather than wins and losses, the Cardinals and Colts still show up near the top. Arizona’s first eight opponents allowed a combined 342 touchdowns last year (6 more than anyone else). Minnesota and the Jets also will see plenty of softer defenses in the first half of the year.

The Chargers and Kansas City again show up with difficult schedules. With Los Angeles, it’s the hardest schedule by far, with its opponents allowing 17 fewer touchdowns than anyone else. The Bucs and Browns also show up in the unfavorable group.

This is all guesswork, of course. A lot of the defenses will be a lot better or worse than they were last year (just as many teams will finish with dramatically different win-loss records). But it’s a start.

On the touchdown choice, you’re seeing rushing touchdowns, passing touchdowns and the total of the two (figures don’t include special teams scores).

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, TOUCHDOWNS (first 8 games)
TeamRunPassTotal
Arizona116226342
Minnesota114222336
NY Jets119214333
Indianapolis126202328
Miami111216327
Carolina122201323
Tennessee116204320
Cincinnati117202319
Baltimore119199318
New England114203317
Chicago105211316
Seattle112203315
Washington110203313
Atlanta98214312
Buffalo108204312
Philadelphia130181311
Pittsburgh102206308
Dallas118188306
Green Bay106198304
Detroit106195301
New Orleans90211301
LA Rams124176300
San Francisco105195300
Jacksonville95204299
Oakland116181297
Denver118176294
NY Giants105189294
Houston101190291
Cleveland92194286
Kansas City116169285
Tampa Bay103177280
LA Chargers96167263

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index