The NFL Draft is three days away, and everyone and his brother is putting out a mock of what they think will happen. And everyone in the media (to use the term loosely) is reporting what teams are thinking about doing or not doing when their first-round pick comes up. A lot of it sounds like an effort to distract people from they're actually planning on doing.
Instead of saying what I think will happen, I'm going to write about what I think won't happen. The stories that sound most implausible to me. For example:
Browns thinking about Mitch Trubisky at No. 1. Defensive end Myles Garrett is a game-changing defender widely believed to be the best player in the draft, connected to the Browns at No. 1 overall since the regular season ended. But we're supposed to believe the analytics-driven Browns are torn between Garrett and one-year college starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky. I don't buy it.
This sounds like a league-driven push to enshroud the first pick of the draft in an air of mystery so people will tune in. Quarterbacks are more exciting to the masses than some defender who might only be the next DeMarcus Ware or Von Miller. Obviously the Browns need a quarterback, but we're not talking about a Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck-level prospect. Trubisky ain't going No. 1.
Christian McCaffrey won't get by Carolina at No. 8. McCaffrey's a talented back with the great pedigree and one of the draft's few top talents with clear three-down potential -- the best receiving back coming out of college. But that's one of the reasons I have a hard time seeing a fit with Carolina, an offense that really doesn't throw to its running backs very often. Two years in a row, in fact, the Panthers have ranked dead last in running back receptions.
| RUNNING BACK RECEPTIONS AND YARDS, 2015-2016 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | 2015 | 2015 | 2016 | 2016 |
| New Orleans | 127 | 1064 | 127 | 884 |
| Baltimore | 127 | 879 | 118 | 725 |
| Cleveland | 88 | 740 | 102 | 904 |
| Pittsburgh | 68 | 535 | 98 | 772 |
| Oakland | 96 | 766 | 95 | 843 |
| Atlanta | 97 | 775 | 93 | 946 |
| Arizona | 60 | 683 | 93 | 970 |
| NY Jets | 94 | 724 | 91 | 678 |
| New England | 103 | 1043 | 90 | 718 |
| Detroit | 135 | 1216 | 89 | 699 |
| Indianapolis | 62 | 466 | 84 | 592 |
| NY Giants | 92 | 829 | 83 | 622 |
| Minnesota | 76 | 622 | 82 | 569 |
| Philadelphia | 128 | 878 | 80 | 654 |
| Green Bay | 70 | 654 | 80 | 571 |
| Cincinnati | 74 | 645 | 77 | 655 |
| Jacksonville | 66 | 490 | 77 | 555 |
| Seattle | 58 | 434 | 75 | 625 |
| San Diego | 134 | 1147 | 74 | 693 |
| Buffalo | 60 | 487 | 72 | 553 |
| Washington | 79 | 705 | 70 | 502 |
| Kansas City | 53 | 454 | 70 | 681 |
| San Francisco | 87 | 679 | 67 | 566 |
| Tennessee | 72 | 615 | 67 | 528 |
| Tampa Bay | 89 | 861 | 66 | 549 |
| Miami | 81 | 701 | 66 | 530 |
| Houston | 85 | 657 | 63 | 375 |
| Los Angeles | 66 | 524 | 63 | 468 |
| Denver | 55 | 345 | 61 | 546 |
| Dallas | 79 | 657 | 58 | 537 |
| Chicago | 70 | 697 | 55 | 509 |
| Carolina | 51 | 375 | 44 | 369 |
Maybe the idea is that Carolina wants to change that dramatically in 2017 by adding a back like McCaffrey. I think it's far more likely they're interested in somebody else and are hoping some team trades ahead of them to land McCaffrey, leaving them with the player they actually want.
Jacksonville thinking quarterback at No. 4. Blake Bortles comes off a disappointing season, and I suspect the Jaguars will indeed select a quarterback at some point in the draft to have another developable option in case his career flames out. But Bortles has lately been disappointing, but not terrible, and is it really time to move on from him entirely (which drafting a quarterback in the first round would do)? I think a large percentage of the teams in the league would be happy to have a quarterback that's done as many good things in his career as Bortles to work with and turn around. I further think that if you're going to pull the plug on him, you'd only do it for a sure thing at the position, which there isn't in this year's draft. The Jaguars are thinking running back, offensive line, maybe tight end -- not quarterback.
There are other lies swirling around the draft, but these are the big ones (I think). In three days, we'll find out for sure.