Ian Allan

May 15, 2017

Wide receivers

Are NFL teams spreading the ball around more?

I notice that receiving production was spread out more last year. That is, the best receivers weren’t as good as usual, and the later receivers were a lot better.

Look, for example, at the best receivers from the last 20 years. Jordy Nelson was No. 1 in 2016, but when compared against the last 20 years, he finished with better numbers than only two of those guys (2006 Marvin Harrison and 1997 Rob Moore).

PRODUCTION OF BEST RECEIVERS (1997-2016)
Year	Player	No	Yards	Avg	TD	Points
2007	Randy Moss, N.E.	98	1493	15.2	23	287.3
2003	Randy Moss, Minn.	111	1632	14.7	17	265.2
2011	Calvin Johnson, Det.	96	1681	17.5	16	264.1
2014	Antonio Brown, Pitt.	129	1698	13.2	14	259.8
2015	Antonio Brown, Pitt.	136	1834	13.5	11	253.4
2001	Marvin Harrison, Ind.	109	1524	14.0	15	242.4
1999	Marvin Harrison, Ind.	115	1663	14.5	12	240.3
2002	Marvin Harrison, Ind.	143	1722	12.0	11	240.2
1998	Randy Moss, Minn.	68	1313	19.3	17	237.3
2004	Muhsin Muhammad, Car.	93	1405	15.1	16	236.5
2000	Randy Moss, Minn.	77	1437	18.7	15	235.7
2005	Steve Smith Sr., Car.	103	1563	15.2	13	234.3
2013	Demaryius Thomas, Den.	92	1430	15.5	14	227.0
2012	Calvin Johnson, Det.	122	1964	16.1	5	226.4
2008	Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.	96	1431	14.9	12	215.1
2009	Andre Johnson, Hou.	101	1569	15.5	9	212.9
2010	Brandon Lloyd, Den.	77	1448	18.8	11	210.8
2016	Jordy Nelson, G.B.	97	1257	13.0	14	209.7
2006	Marvin Harrison, Ind.	95	1366	14.4	12	208.6
1997	Rob Moore, Ariz.	97	1584	16.3	8	208.4

If you follow that process for all of the top 20 receivers (comparing all of the No. 2 guys, then all of the No. 3s, and so on) then all of them are beaten by most of the entries from the other seasons. Of the first 20 receivers, all but four of them rank in the bottom 3.

That’s weird, with passing production generally going up. You would figure most of those top 20 would be better than seasons in the late ‘90s or early in the century (when NFL teams weren’t passing for as many yards or touchdowns).

But the top receivers were down pretty much across the board. It starts changing in the 20s, and then gets really flipped around starting at No. 30. Look at wide receivers 30 thru 50 – those 21 players all ranked either first or next-to-first relative to the last 20 years.

HOW 2016 RECEIVERS FARED RELATIVE TO LAST 20 YEARS
Rk	Player	No	Yards	Avg	TD	Points	Place
1	Jordy Nelson, G.B.	97	1257	13.0	14	209.7	18
2	Mike Evans, T.B.	96	1321	13.8	12	208.1	14
3	Antonio Brown, Pitt.	106	1284	12.1	12	200.4	16
4	Odell Beckham Jr., NYG	101	1367	13.5	10	196.7	13
5	T.Y. Hilton, Ind.	91	1448	15.9	6	182.8	16
6	Julio Jones, Atl.	83	1409	17.0	6	176.9	20
7	Davante Adams, G.B.	75	997	13.3	12	173.7	18
8	Michael Thomas, N.O.	92	1137	12.4	9	167.7	18
9	Brandin Cooks, N.O.	78	1173	15.0	8	165.3	19
10	Doug Baldwin, Sea.	94	1128	12.0	7	158.8	20
11	Michael Crabtree, Oak.	89	1003	11.3	8	150.3	20
12	Amari Cooper, Oak.	83	1153	13.9	5	149.3	20
13	Rishard Matthews, Tenn.	65	945	14.5	9	148.5	20
14	Tyrell Williams, S.D.	69	1059	15.3	7	147.9	20
15	Demaryius Thomas, Den.	90	1083	12.0	5	140.3	20
16	Jarvis Landry, Mia.	94	1136	12.1	4	139.6	19
17	Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.	107	1023	9.6	6	138.3	19
18	Kelvin Benjamin, Car.	63	941	14.9	7	136.1	18
19	Golden Tate, Det.	91	1077	11.8	4	133.7	18
20	Emmanuel Sanders, Den.	79	1032	13.1	5	133.2	18
21	Jamison Crowder, Wash.	67	847	12.6	8	132.7	16
22	Terrelle Pryor, Clev.	77	1007	13.1	5	132.7	11
23	Dez Bryant, Dall.	50	796	15.9	8	131.6	10
24	Tyreek Hill, K.C.	61	593	9.7	12	131.3	7
25	Julian Edelman, N.E.	98	1106	11.3	3	130.6	7
26	Kenny Britt, L.A.	68	1002	14.7	5	130.2	7
27	Mike Wallace, Balt.	72	1017	14.1	4	127.7	6
28	Adam Thielen, Minn.	69	967	14.0	5	126.7	5
29	Kenny Stills, Mia.	42	726	17.3	9	126.6	3
30	Allen Robinson, Jac.	73	883	12.1	6	126.3	2
31	DeSean Jackson, Wash.	56	1005	17.9	4	124.5	1
32	Brandon LaFell, Cin.	64	862	13.5	6	122.2	2
33	Pierre Garcon, Wash.	79	1041	13.2	3	122.1	2
34	A.J. Green, Cin.	66	964	14.6	4	120.4	1
35	DeAndre Hopkins, Hou.	78	954	12.2	4	119.4	1
36	Willie Snead, N.O.	72	895	12.4	4	117.5	1
37	Marvin Jones, Det.	55	930	16.9	4	117.0	1
38	Cameron Meredith, Chi.	66	888	13.5	4	116.8	1
39	Sterling Shepard, NYG	65	683	10.5	8	116.3	1
40	Steve Smith Sr., Balt.	70	799	11.4	5	113.9	1
41	Cole Beasley, Dall.	75	833	11.1	5	113.3	1
42	Marqise Lee, Jac.	63	851	13.5	4	113.1	1
43	Quincy Enunwa, NYJ	58	857	14.8	4	109.7	1
44	Stefon Diggs, Minn.	84	903	10.8	3	108.3	1
45	Anquan Boldin, Det.	67	584	8.7	8	106.4	1
46	Dontrelle Inman, S.D.	58	810	14.0	4	105.0	1
47	Taylor Gabriel, Atl.	35	579	16.5	7	99.9	2
48	Ted Ginn Jr., Car.	54	752	13.9	4	99.2	2
49	J.J. Nelson, Ariz.	34	568	16.7	7	98.8	2
50	DeVante Parker, Mia.	56	744	13.3	4	98.4	1

It’s kind of interesting. Sort of, anyway. What’s driving this? Is it a situation where more teams are using more multiple-receiver sets, causing stats to be spread around more? It looks that way. (And that would change how we all value wide receivers in fantasy drafts.)

But I’m not there yet. If you look at the 2014 and 2015 numbers, you’ll see those top 20 receivers putting up great numbers – the appropriate numbers you would expect. If we were shifting to more multiple-receiver sets and more spreading the ball around, I think it would have shown up more in those last two years.

So I think we just got hit with an outlier year. Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, Larry Fitzgerald, T.Y. Hilton, Amari Cooper and A.J. Green, for example, all failed to score more than 6 TDs. So rather than a shift in the NFL landscape, I believe things will settle down this year, meaning we’ll get much better production from those standout receivers in the top 15-20.

Here, if you’re curious, are the 2015 numbers (showing how the fared relative to the last 20 years). I won’t bother posting the 2014.

For these charts, by the way, they show just receiving yards. If a player ran for 50 or 150 yards, that’s not included. But touchdowns include receiving, rushing and returns.

HOW 2015 RECEIVERS FARED RELATIVE TO LAST 20 YEARS
Rk	Player	No	Yards	Avg	TD	Points	Place
1	Antonio Brown, Pitt.	136	1834	13.5	11	253.4	5
2	Julio Jones, Atl.	136	1871	13.8	9	241.1	2
3	Brandon Marshall, NYJ	109	1502	13.8	14	234.2	1
4	Allen Robinson, Jac.	80	1400	17.5	14	224.0	2
5	Odell Beckham Jr., NYG	96	1450	15.1	13	223.0	1
6	DeAndre Hopkins, Hou.	111	1521	13.7	11	220.1	1
7	Doug Baldwin, Sea.	78	1069	13.7	14	190.9	5
8	A.J. Green, Cin.	86	1297	15.1	10	189.7	4
9	Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.	109	1215	11.2	9	175.5	8
10	Calvin Johnson, Det.	88	1214	13.8	9	175.4	6
11	Eric Decker, NYJ	80	1027	12.8	12	174.7	5
12	Brandin Cooks, N.O.	84	1138	13.6	9	167.8	5
13	Demaryius Thomas, Den.	105	1304	12.4	6	166.4	2
14	Allen Hurns, Jac.	64	1031	16.1	10	163.1	3
15	Sammy Watkins, Buff.	60	1047	17.5	9	158.7	4
16	Jeremy Maclin, K.C.	87	1088	12.5	8	156.8	3
17	Jarvis Landry, Mia.	110	1157	10.5	6	153.7	2
18	Emmanuel Sanders, Den.	76	1135	14.9	6	149.5	2
19	Jordan Matthews, Phil.	85	997	11.7	8	147.7	2
20	Michael Crabtree, Oak.	85	922	10.9	9	146.2	2
21	Amari Cooper, Oak.	72	1070	14.9	6	143.0	2
22	T.Y. Hilton, Ind.	69	1124	16.3	5	142.4	3
23	John Brown, Ariz.	65	1003	15.4	7	142.3	2
24	James Jones, G.B.	50	890	17.8	8	141.0	2
25	Mike Evans, T.B.	74	1206	16.3	3	138.6	2
26	Ted Ginn Jr., Car.	44	739	16.8	10	133.9	4
27	Travis Benjamin, Clev.	68	966	14.2	6	132.6	3
28	Rueben Randle, NYG	57	797	14.0	8	127.7	4
29	Randall Cobb, G.B.	79	829	10.5	7	124.9	5
30	Kamar Aiken, Balt.	75	944	12.6	5	124.4	4
31	Michael Floyd, Ariz.	52	849	16.3	6	120.9	6
32	Martavis Bryant, Pitt.	50	765	15.3	7	118.5	8
33	Golden Tate, Det.	90	813	9.0	6	117.3	5
34	Willie Snead, N.O.	69	984	14.3	3	116.4	4
35	Tyler Lockett, Sea.	51	664	13.0	8	114.4	4
36	Pierre Garcon, Wash.	72	777	10.8	6	113.7	3
37	Julian Edelman, N.E.	61	692	11.3	7	111.2	4
38	Donte Moncrief, Ind.	64	733	11.5	6	109.3	4
39	Tavon Austin, St.L.	52	473	9.1	10	107.3	4
40	Markus Wheaton, Pitt.	44	749	17.0	5	106.9	3
41	Marvin Jones, Cin.	65	816	12.6	4	105.6	3
42	Alshon Jeffery, Chi.	54	807	14.9	4	104.7	3
43	Anquan Boldin, S.F.	69	789	11.4	4	102.9	3
44	Terrance Williams, Dall.	52	840	16.2	3	102.0	4
45	Jermaine Kearse, Sea.	49	685	14.0	5	98.5	5
46	Keenan Allen, S.D.	67	725	10.8	4	96.5	6
47	Stefon Diggs, Minn.	52	720	13.9	4	96.0	5
48	Torrey Smith, S.F.	33	663	20.1	4	92.3	8
49	Rishard Matthews, Mia.	43	662	15.4	4	90.2	7
50	Nate Washington, Hou.	47	658	14.0	4	89.8	7

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