Scheduletron

May 14, 2017

Strength of schedule

What is the advantage of a so-called easy schedule?

I spent a little more time looking at Strength of Schedule. It had been a topic of discussion on Friday. I am not excited about the numbers. Probably best to just leave it alone.

The premise on this one was to look at whether one is better off focusing on records (W-L-T) or points when measuring strength of schedule. I looked at both, and don’t see much difference.

On this one, I focused on the 2002-2016 seasons – since the league moved to 32 teams.

I started by pulling out the three teams in each of those 15 seasons projecting to play the easiest schedules. That’s using points allowed by opponents in the previous season.

There are 45 teams in this group, and 16 of them went on to play schedules ranking in the top 25 percent (top 8). That’s for points – they played opponents that tended to allow a few more points. (See bold teams.) But 10 of these 45 teams had bottom-10 schedules. Their schedules were HARDER than expected (and I’ve got them flagged by black dots). Overall, the opponents for these schedules allowed an average of 22.36 points per game.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE -- POINTS (2002-2016)
Year	Team	Exp Pts	Rnk	Act Pts	Rnk
2002	• Jacksonville	21.7	1	21.2	24
2005	Arizona	22.7	1	21.8	3
2013	Denver	24.0	1	23.2	16
2014	Indianapolis	24.8	1	22.8	15
2015	Tampa Bay	24.8	1	22.9	17
2016	• Dallas	24.1	1	22.0	26
2006	• Pittsburgh	21.8	1	18.9	31
2012	Atlanta	24.4	1	24.4	1
2003	Chicago	23.9	1	22.4	1
2008	San Francisco	22.6	1	23.6	4
2009	Seattle	23.8	1	23.6	3
2004	Tampa Bay	22.3	1	22.9	2
2007	Carolina	22.1	1	21.8	15
2010	Washington	22.5	1	22.8	10
2011	Washington	23.3	1	22.9	12
2002	• Pittsburgh	21.4	2	21.0	27
2009	• San Francisco	23.6	2	19.3	31
2003	Seattle	23.8	2	21.8	4
2015	Carolina	24.3	2	23.3	12
2008	New England	22.4	2	23.0	9
2005	Philadelphia	22.6	2	20.8	15
2006	• Miami	21.7	2	20.0	25
2012	• New Orleans	23.9	2	22.1	26
2013	Dallas	23.5	2	24.9	7
2004	Denver	22.0	2	23.0	1
2014	Detroit	24.6	2	23.5	4
2007	Tampa Bay	21.9	2	22.7	4
2010	Dallas	22.5	2	22.4	13
2016	Minnesota	23.7	2	23.0	12
2011	Tennessee	23.1	2	22.1	18
2009	• Arizona	23.3	3	20.3	29
2002	• Cincinnati	21.2	3	21.0	26
2015	Atlanta	24.3	3	24.0	4
2008	Buffalo	22.4	3	23.4	5
2005	St. Louis	22.6	3	21.8	2
2014	• Miami	24.6	3	21.6	29
2006	Arizona	21.6	3	21.8	3
2013	Kansas City	23.4	3	25.1	5
2007	Atlanta	21.8	3	21.5	20
2016	Chicago	23.7	3	22.8	15
2011	Miami	22.9	3	23.0	10
2003	Oakland	23.3	3	21.6	9
2010	San Francisco	22.5	3	22.8	12
2012	Tampa Bay	23.7	3	23.3	9
2004	Tennessee	21.8	3	22.0	13

In the other corner, we’ve got wins and losses. I wanted to also have 45 teams, but that wasn’t possible (because of ties). So on this one, I went with all schedules where the opponents had a combined record of no better than 116-140. There were 47 such schedules, so only two off relative to the other group.

The overall scoring average is almost identical – 22.33. And the breakdown is pretty similar. Of the 47 teams, 16 (about a third) had easy schedules (in the top 8). And 8 teams had bottom-10 schedules.

Sixteen of these teams, by the way, are the same – appearing on both lists.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE -- POINTS (2002-2016)
Year	Team	W	L	T	Pct	Act Pts	Rnk
2008	New England	99	157	0	.387	23.0	9
2015	Atlanta	104	150	2	.410	24.0	4
2009	Chicago	105	149	2	.414	22.7	13
2015	Indianapolis	106	149	1	.416	23.2	13
2015	Houston	106	148	2	.418	23.3	8
2009	Minnesota	107	148	1	.420	23.4	5
2008	San Diego	108	148	0	.422	22.6	15
2015	Tampa Bay	108	146	2	.426	22.9	17
2009	Green Bay	109	146	1	.428	23.8	2
2015	New Orleans	109	145	2	.430	23.6	6
2013	Denver	110	146	0	.430	23.2	16
2014	Indianapolis	110	146	0	.430	22.8	15
2009	Pittsburgh	110	144	2	.434	22.1	18
2015	Carolina	111	145	0	.434	23.3	12
2015	Tennessee	111	144	1	.436	23.3	9
2009	Baltimore	111	143	2	.438	23.6	4
2002	Cleveland	112	144	0	.438	21.7	16
2008	Oakland	112	144	0	.438	22.6	16
2014	Tennessee	112	144	0	.438	23.1	10
2002	• Pittsburgh	113	143	0	.441	21.0	27
2009	• Arizona	113	143	0	.441	20.3	29
2011	• Arizona	113	143	0	.441	21.0	25
2014	Houston	113	143	0	.441	24.0	1
2002	Houston	113	143	0	.441	21.4	19
2009	• San Francisco	113	142	1	.443	19.3	31
2003	Seattle	113	142	1	.443	21.8	4
2003	Arizona	113	142	1	.443	20.9	17
2002	• Cincinnati	114	142	0	.445	21.0	26
2005	St. Louis	114	142	0	.445	21.8	2
2006	Chicago	114	142	0	.445	21.3	8
2010	Arizona	114	142	0	.445	22.8	11
2008	Denver	114	142	0	.445	22.1	18
2009	Cleveland	114	140	2	.449	23.1	7
2002	• Jacksonville	115	141	0	.449	21.2	24
2005	Arizona	115	141	0	.449	21.8	3
2008	Buffalo	115	141	0	.449	23.4	5
2010	St. Louis	115	141	0	.449	23.5	6
2003	Green Bay	115	141	0	.449	21.5	11
2006	Green Bay	115	141	0	.449	20.7	16
2008	New Orleans	115	141	0	.449	22.7	12
2003	San Francisco	115	140	1	.451	21.2	15
2005	Philadelphia	116	140	0	.453	20.8	15
2012	• New England	116	140	0	.453	21.6	27
2014	Jacksonville	116	140	0	.453	23.5	5
2010	San Diego	116	140	0	.453	23.7	4
2008	Kansas City	116	140	0	.453	21.7	20
2010	Seattle	116	140	0	.453	22.3	15

So very little difference between the two, it seems. They’re about the same.

And as a final note, I looked at the average schedules from each year (the 30 ranking either 16th or 17th). That’s not entering the year, but what in reality happened. For those teams, they allowed an average of 22.0 points.

With the so-called easy schedules, we saw about 22.35 points. So we’re talking about an average of about a third of an NFL point per week. Over the course of a season, that’s adds up to just short of one touchdown – a 1.5 percent difference.

That’s the kind of “bonus” one can objectively expect from an easy schedule. The advantage would presumably become more pronounced if the numbers were re-run in September or October, when there is more current data on the teams. But SOS doesn’t look like the knockout silver bullet that will lift you to a championship.

—Ian Allan

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